Daily Forex News

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EUR/USD remains pressured towards 1.1600 amid rising Treasury yields

At the hour of the press, EUR/USD trades a generally close reach of around 1.1600. The 100-period SMA on the four-hour outline and the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the downtrend that began toward the beginning of September appears to have framed intense opposition in the 1.1615-20 region. If the pair transcends that level and starts utilizing it as help, 1.1670 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) could be viewed as the following objective in front of 1.1700/10 region (mental level, Fibonacci half retracement, 200-period SMA). On the drawback, 1.1570 (50-period SMA, 20-period SMA) could be viewed as the main help before 1.1525 (15-month low) and 1.1500 (mental level).

GBP/USD contains above 1.3750 amid USD weakness

GBP/USD shut the keep going candle on the four-hour outline over the 200-period SMA and is right now testing the upper line of the climbing relapse channel coming from late September at 1.3740. Albeit the close term, specialized viewpoint stays bullish, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) marker is, by and by, surrounding the overbought region. On Thursday, the pair organized a 60-pip amendment after the RSI contacted 70 and a comparative response could be anticipated. 1.3750 (September 23 high) adjusts as the following opposition before the pair could target 1.3800 (mental level).

USD/JPY advances to multi-year highs near 114.50 on rising US T-bond yields

The USD/JPY had seen a 400 pip rally since October 4, when it was trading around 110.50. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 75, portrays that the vertical movement is overextended, as the RSI showed oversold conditions since October 11. On that very day, the 50-day moving normal (DMA) got over the 100-DMA, giving a lift to the pair, as the right request for moving midpoints in an upswing is the more limited time spans moving normal, over the more extended period ones. All things considered, the USD/JPY first resistance level is October 4, 2018, high at 114.54, which is a pivotal value level, fruitlessly tried multiple times in four years.

XAU/USD fell from a high of $1,796.49 to a low of $1,764.86 on Friday.

Gold is uniting the new upsurge, coming up short on a finish potential gain inclination, as a thick group of critical resistance levels around $1798 stays a difficult one to figure out for the buyers. The Fibonacci 23.6% one-day, turn point one-week R2, SMA200, and SMA100 one-day harmonize around that value zone. Acknowledgment over the last will uncover the $1803 boundary, which is the intersection of the Fibonacci 161.8% one-week and turn point one-day R1. The following bullish objective is seen at $1809, the turning point one-day R2, above which $1812 will be on the buyer’s radar.

 

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EUR, JPY, GBP & XAU Saw a Market Retracement

EUR/USD is trading close to 1.1650, recovering ground to clinch three-week highs

The EUR/USD pair is trading at around the 23.6% retracement of its most recent everyday droop, estimated at 1.1908 and the year low at 1.1523. As per the everyday graph, the bullish potential is still very much restricted. An immovably negative 20 SMA continues to cover the potential gain, while the more drawn-out moving midpoints keep up with their negative slants well over the more limited one. Specialized markers are recuperating some ground with lopsided strength however holding inside regrettable levels, recommending a remedial stage as opposed to affirming a potential base. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is over its 20 and 100 SMAs, with the more limited one going to cross over the more one.

GBP/USD: Upside needs validation above the descending trendline near 1.3780

On the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair has been in a consistent descending pattern since the high made on July 30 at 1.3983. The dropping trendline from the referenced level goes about as a solid obstruction for GBP/USD. The spot exchanges over the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3716 make bulls confident of some recuperation. On the off chance that the pair supports the intraday high alongside the break of the negative sloping line that would mean GBP/USD bulls can test the mental 1.3800 imprints. A fruitful break of the 100-day SMA at 1.3812 could clear the way for the 1.3850 even obstruction level.

USD/JPY extends the previous session’s declines on Tuesday in the early Asian trading

USD/JPY broadened the past meeting’s decreases on Tuesday in the early Asian session meeting. The pair stays in a moderately tight value band, after floating close to their everyday highs in the US meeting. At the hour of composing, USD/JPY is trading at 114.27, down 0.02% for the afternoon. The US benchmark 10-year Treasury security yields exchange at 1.59% after ascending close to 1.61% on Monday, levels last seen toward the beginning of June. As the new, Retail Sales and Initial Jobless Claims propose continuous financial recuperation regardless of steady evaluating pressure. The greenback stays consistent around 94.00.

XAU/USD moves back above $1,770 level, upside potential seems limited

XAU/USD is trading between Fibonacci levels, with dealers adjusted around the 38.2% retracement of the most recent bullish run estimated somewhere in the range of 1,721.59 and 1,800.58 at 1,770.40. Then again, purchasers safeguard the drawback at around the half retracement at 1,761.02. The close to term picture is negative, albeit gold requirements to break underneath 1,761.00 to affirm another leg south. The 4-hour diagram shows that moving midpoints stay aimless, mirroring the shortfall of a reasonable pattern, with just the 100 SMA underneath the current level. Nonetheless, specialized markers stay inside bad levels, the RSI solidifying at around 42 and the Momentum heading immovably lower close oversold readings, mirroring bears’ predominance.

 

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Mexican Peso Improves as USD/MXN Degrades and EMFX Became Strong

USD/MXN was high for the previous six months till it got near 20.90 last week. It was a major breakdown for the currency pair, as nobody expected it because of its amazing performance in the past. It was challenging because energy prices went down in the US but there is a significant help provided by the start of the quarterly earnings season as the corporate profits have helped the dollar to get strong easily.

There is a solid bounce in the US equities along with the S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 for nearly 6% and 7% from their monthly lows, even after the concerns about the fed policy normalization. EMFX works fine when things are going well on Wall Street and traders are also confident about doing risky trades that will give them the potential income they want. If the United States stocks perform well and the treasury curve becomes as per order, the Mexican peso will stand in a dominant position to fight against the US dollar.

The Mexican central banks have strengthened the borrowing cost to 3 times in the year 2021 and planning to increase it more by twice when the year ends. This is all done to tackle the inflation pressures occurring in Mexico. The overnight rate of the currency may end at 5.25% that will widen the fed’s benchmark rate.

Oil is also getting strong in Mexico that will be considered a strength for this nation’s economy. The increased prices of the commodity will support the revenues for Pemex and lessen the financial pressures that will eventually reduce the credit downgrade that is causing a threat to the government.

Traders should focus on the bond market dynamics and general sentiment because these two variables will be important for the currency market in near future.

 

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USD/TRY Increases When Turkish Central Bank Delivers an Unexpected Large Cut

USD/TRY has increased when central banks have released a large cut. It’s seen that the Turkish central bank has cut down the rates that it uses to lend money to commercial banks in the event of a paucity of funds. They have cut it to 16% that including 200bps mark that is unexpected by the Turkish government officials. Its shocking news that comes straight from the market as they only used to cut it to 50-100bps in the past. Not to ignore that this cut has arrived in the middle of the atmosphere where there is inflation pressure rose on the Turkish government.

Inflation has occurred as the currency of Turkey (USD/TRY) is not strong and the EM central banks have a tight policy regarding their rules. The present president of Turkey Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has suggested the staff to lower the interest rates so the inflation rates are also get lowered automatically. However, this may not be the right step taken by the government in this situation no matter the Turkish central bank is finding it comfortable. Things should be changed soon to improve the Turkish lira.

The Turkish banks observed that because of the supply-side factors, opportunities will be limited until the year ends and won’t change the economic conditions policy rates. USD/TRY has thus helped to decrease the inflation rates. The ministry, though, has given the reminder in the initial days of the year that policy rates will rise above the inflation rates. However, President Erdogan has claimed that he might decrease the policy rates shortly.

It’s a matter of discussion that USD/TRY cannot reach the 10.00 level in the forthcoming months. Interest rates and inflation rates are all a separate topic of discussions that need to be considered seriously by the union of Turkey. Both things are equally mandatory to run the country.

No matter what, the instability of the Turkish lira is a positive point for the equity traders, especially those who are dealing with the Spanish banks and IBEX 35.

 

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Canadian Dollar Dropped its Growth, Traders Waiting for Bank of Canada Statements

Traders are waiting for the bank of canada’s statement over the CAD. The Canadian dollar that was moving with high strength has dropped its progress in the last week of October. But despite heavy a weak week, the currency has got dominance over the US dollar, British pound, Euro, and Japanese Yen since June. It’s a matter of great concern for traders that the cash will benefit from the downfall and it’s going to increase in November month.

The currency of Canada offers the benefits from the global rising inflation situations as the prices of energy; commodities are rising and doing great. West taxes intermediate has leveled the position since 2014. The Canadian commodity can affect the local inflation and monetary policy too. There was a growth of 4.4% was seen in the last week’s CPI data as compared, which is also great news for the Canadian dollar. This has grown after a long time since the year 2003.

With the data that came out regarding inflation, everyone was waiting for the decisions taken by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. The bank is not focusing on changing the lending rates that are at present at 0.25%. However, the bond prices of Canada are moving to be lower from 2B Canadian dollars to $1B. This data will boost the price of the trade by the end of the next year.

The bank of Canada policy is going to be applied on the dollar in the middle of Sept and it could be unpleasant for the traders. This thing will happen when the bank sees the inflation trends for upcoming consecutive times. Despite all these, this may not satisfy the traders who support the Canadian dollars as of now.

All the eyes are now on United States earnings where the powerful companies like Facebook, Apple, and Amazon will make a difference in the currency. Let’s see what the bank of Canada will say about the situation in the coming weeks.

 

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COP26 Event is Going to be Organized on 31st Oct For Environmental Welfare

The prices of energy are rising that are affecting the economies in nations like Asia, North America, and Europe. COP26 is a two-week event that is going to begin on 31st Oct in the Glasgow city of Scotland. The United States Conference of parties was organized first in the year 1995 where the 26 was added as the meeting was the 26th year of the event.

What is the Energy Supply Production Concerns?

The agreement between major economies like China, the UK, US and other countries pledged to use the fuels that will release fewer carbon emissions in the climate. These countries have started scaling back their use of coal and oil as the primary energy sources that is a great step to improve the climate. Things were going great but when the corona pandemic hit, countries again started focusing on their coal production to fulfill their energy needs.

Assets Impacting COP26

Cop26 goals will have a long-term effect on the diverse markets including currencies and commodities. When the oil production is reduced in the lack of an alternative energy resource, energy prices will be increased in short term as the demand for the oil will be high. The Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and Norwegian Krone will see a rise when fossil fuels will not be used as their currency is strong. There is huge room for growth for these countries as more and more electrical manufacturing companies are creating vehicles that run without fuels.

 

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US Dollar Gets strong as Corporate earnings grow in the market

The corporate earnings of the US and China have made their currency strong. Traders were feeling high when they saw that the corporate earnings were running strong and the factors like US/China economic and trade situations were also going strong. All this news came as a boon for the traders as they know that US currency is going to increase along with China’s. Both the nation’s trade situation will get benefit from the rise of these nations’ currency prices. Apart from this, Iran and Europe are also discussing bringing back the nuclear deal that they had in the past. This means there is a hope that the Iran Rial and Europe’s Euro will get high too.

As the central banks’ meeting is dominating the market for a week in the nations like Europe, Japan, and Canada, the flow of the money will rise for a long period. Also, with the S&P 500, it’s looking strong after the recent gathering of the banking officials. There was a bearish signal for the currency pair AUD/JPY that’s not great news for the traders.

The retail market offers trades of 30.25% that are net-long and have trading ratios that are going too short from 2.31 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 61.90% that is significantly stronger than yesterday and 17.24% that is higher than last week. The collection of trader’s net-short is 4.39% that is low than yesterday and 10.73% which is higher than last week.

From the crowd sentiments and traders’ net shorts; AUD/JPY prices may continue to rise in the fate too. Traders income is less net-short than yesterday & as compared with the last week. The price of AUD/JPY is going to move lower in the future even though traders will remain net short. Let’s see what the future holds and how fast the AUD/JPY is going to move in the future.

 

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Brazil’s Central Bank Increases the Selic Rate by 1.5% that Affect USD and BRL

Selic rate increased to 150 basis points on Wednesday, all thanks to the central bank of Brazil that has done this to set a benchmark . It’s the largest hike done by the bank in 20 years. The plans related to the additional financial spending have destroyed the hopes of the long-running inflation expectations but with the recent framework, risk will increase and it will unbalance things. The central bank of Brazil has also released a statement that determines that the market should also expect a rate hike similar to the past at the next policy meeting.

Real, the currency of Brazil is under extreme pressure as of now because the government has declared that it intends to ignore spending terms and help the strugglers with the money. The extra funds may build pressure on the policymakers of the central bank as the policy will continue to tighten at a fast pace to fight inflation. The officials of the central bank announced that they aim to hike 100 basis points or bps at this month’s meeting. However, things have gone more aggressively as the financial viewpoint of the country is shifted.

The rates of the Central bank had not hiked more than 100 basis points since the year 2002. As per the latest policy of the central bank of Brazil, it intends to return the inflation with the bank target. The prices of the consumer are rising as the year will end at 3.75%. This process of controlling the money will keep on picking up the pace as the bank will gain some confidence as per the medium-term prospects of the Brazilian economy. Let’s see how the policy is released and what impact it does on the economy of Brazil. For more information, keep in touch with our blogs and get the ultimate information about the forex news of the world. Read our other news to know more!

 

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Australian Bond is on Destruction as GBP/JPY Gets a Boost at the End of this Month

A boost was seen in the GBP/JPY yesterday. Traders were waiting for the Aussie bond market to rise when the RBA did not purchase the 2024 April yield target bond. The questions were asked whether the bank is giving the yield curve control or not. The three-year farming done during this time is giving fertility of 1.15% that rose from 0.3% at the start of the month. The bank target is to limit fertility at 0.1%. Certain thoughts will include keeping an eye on the April 2024 bonds that whether the bank will purchase them or not.

F so far the Australian dollar impact has not been great but the market is expecting hawkish RBA where the money market is priced at 3-4 rates in a year. But as per the RBA’s current statement that it will not raise the dollar rates till 2024 has not encouraged the hopes of the hawkish RBA. The currency is struggling to make a foothold above 0.7500.

F the S&P is expecting to close with over 5% of the gains in this month that will raise the potential for a month-end rebalancing that will raise the short-term fluctuations for forex. The S&P 500 has closed at 5% or more in the past where GBP/JPY had gained close to 0.6% on these occasions. GBP/JPY has however moved higher to 82% on the final trading day of the month.

As per today’s ECB meeting, the policy settings will be unchanged but the market participants are expecting that the ECB repeat their stance and push back the current market pricing that gives you an indication of rate hikes by the end of 2022. Let’s see how far the GBP/JPY will go and at what rate it will become stable. For more information about the forex news, keep reading our blogs and get yourself updated with the financial sector in an easy-to-read blog format.

 

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EUR/USD will Raise More After Traders Ignore Dovish Lagarde

EUR/USD saw a long-time low phase that went on to rise on May 25 and stopped for 1.2266. This went on low to 1.1524 on October 12. This lowering of the currency pairs looks to be ending as the latest week’s price is indicating that the trend is going high and will continue to follow this trend. The European central bank decided not to change the monetary policy of governing council and the news was spread when President Christine Lagarde released this statement at the conference. She said that ECB will raise the Eurozone interest rates in 2022 because the inflation will fall off by then.

Lagarde stated that it could increase a lot more in the future but as the years will pass on, the pressure of price rise will slow down because the high energy prices will be out of the equation. The market is moving fast in easier way as expected, this has been moved to price in a position earlier than expected. As a result of this, the EUR/USD got higher.

Having the credit for what you have is of utmost importance is a central bank chief. The ECB may not move toward the reduction of the monetary programs at the December meeting where the new staff will process the economic projections. Thursday’s increase in the currency pair shows that a strong rise in the currency pair has now begun after the five-month downtrend.

The upcoming weeks will make the Euro even stronger than its previous prices as several events are coming like Eurozone that will affect it. Things will change especially in Australia, the US, and the UK as the central bank decisions are going to happen on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Apart from this, the US nonfarm payroll data will be released on Friday. The data release is the second tier that includes the German retail sales, industrial production, factory order, and Eurozone retail sales unemployment.

 

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CAD Rises that Makes it Safe to Spend On
The week is going to be big for the global market because we are hearing a lot of reports out of the US and the macro calendar is loaded with Federal Reserve and nonfarm payrolls documents. The Canadian dollar is going toward a big week after the bank of Canada surprised after announcing their QE program. The incident happened on Saturday that gave a strong push to CAD as the USD/CAD got down to 1.2300 handles.

As the US and Canada are two hawkish central banks right now in the market, combining the two currencies in a pair for the trends is not seen as a weak idea. Traders may see the USD and CAD as a weaker currency that is backed by the central bank which is not going to tighten the policy soon that includes the Japan, Yen, and Euro.

The currency pair of Canada and Japan CAD/JPY can be profitable to deal with considering the oil segment of the world. The pair was great for October as the prices got increased to 90.00 that come under the six-year highs. The CAD/JPY is getting attractive as the bank of Canada is getting strong from the market movement and becoming more hawkish to inflation. The country’s oil strength is boosting that will improve the Canadian economy soon.

This situation is great for the bank of Japan that is sitting at negative rates right now and is continue to experience this for six years. If Canadian dollar rates are going to be up and the Japanese rates are going to fall, the attractiveness of trades will come back and will get a boost. The trend CAD/JPY is going to be up with 23.6% as a major move. The situation will make a bullish pair soon. Let’s see how quickly things will move.

 

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EUR/USD to recover soon after a slow down
The currency pair EUR/USD will be soon back on track and will challenge its top figures of 1.1616 that were once achieved. The exchange rate is also expected to improve as the European Central Banks are going to make changes in the interest rates of the nation to fight the inflation rates. European central bank executive board member Philip Lane recently gave reports that state “Euro is still weak and is facing the inflation issue”. The central bank is trying to build pressure on inflation through the monetary policy that will stabilize it to a percent or so.

He again said that by tightening the monetary policy, we cannot lower the inflation rate but surely we can slow down the pace of the economy and reduce employment rates in the coming years. Thus, these steps will reduce the medium-term inflation pressure. It seems like the ECB will hold on to the ongoing speculations in the market rising regards to the interest rates. This will be a productive step for the nation. EUR/USD will see a large recovery through this in the coming days if the currencies are going to open at the right rate in November. In case there is a decline seen in the exchange rate, it will allow people to show their rush in the market just like what we saw at the beginning of this year.

Let’s see how things are going to change soon regarding the EUR/USD. Find more information regarding the world of trading by reading our blogs on the site of Xtreamforex. Understand the deep aspects of the forex market with our daily blogs that have easy-to-read information that will get you close to the market situation effectively. Register at the site of Xtreamforex and make money online with comfort. See our other news too!

 

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AUD/USD will Improve its Monthly Opening Range as Jobs in Australia Increases

The currency pair of AUD/USD has downgraded as it failed to trade above 0.7548. The news coming from Australia may control the recent decline in the exchange rate as the job growth is expected to return in October month. AUD/USD currency pair is going down where the price was noted to 0.7192 in October, which is a little low than the previous time. It’s expected that the figures will improve in November month.

As the Australian employment growth rate expanded in October month, a lot of jobs are expected to grow for the unemployed, ensuring them a bright future along with the economic improvement of the nation. This will boost the AUD/USD low rates. The positive development will push the reserve bank of Australia to take a step forward toward growth. This is because the central bank is removing its yield curve control program that was once operational. The central bank is expected to show great enthusiasm in increasing the higher interest rates. This will increase the economy and will hit inflation for the good.

The net long of traders was noted 3.39% that is lower than yesterday’s mark and 12.48% that is higher than the last week. The trader net-short is 1.23% which is noted higher than yesterday, and 15.66% that is lower than the last week. The increase in the net long interest rates has grown the trader’s sentiments to 42.81%. The exchange cost of the currency pair will rise in the coming week of November.

As the job will grow in the market, the Australian government is going to control the drop in AUD/USD that will recover the currency pair downfall. The exchange rate will continue to advance from the low phase, i.e. 0.7192 in November. Let us see what happens in November month and how soon the AUD/USD currency pairs see an improvement.

 

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Rivian Gears up for Nasdaq Debut, Tesla Bounces Back

The electric car manufacturer Rivian is all set to make its debut on the Nasdaq today with the highest IPO, and the timings could not be more perfect than this. A pledge of not using fossil fuel-based vehicles by 2040 was taken by the countries and the top companies to reduce the carbon emissions that are highly affecting the climate and causing global warming. They did a settlement to have a stronger environment.

It’s a matter of concern that the key players of the automotive industry like Germany, China, and the USA were not present at the meeting. These brands make cars like Audi, Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes, and more. However, it seems like the brands will be present in the talk going to happen in the future because everyone is looking to have a better climate that is human friendly.

Talking about the Rivian, it started in the year 2009 when it launched its first and fully electric R1T pickup truck in September. The brand has received 55,400 orders since then and it looks like the corporation is going to speed up its production because of high demand in the near future. From a report, it will take almost 60 years for the company to fulfill the present order they have with them.

Elon Musk’s Tesla has seen a near 20% drop when traders saw a Twitter poll that was rumored to be spreading the news of the selling of the Tesla owner’s shares to avoid the tax. But the news has got settled now as the prices of the shares got raised to over 4% in the day. For more updates about the forex world, keep reading the Xtreamforex news section and grow your financial knowledge. Don’t forget to see the other news of the forex world too to earn an income with the right trading knowledge.

 

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NZD/USD Weakens Even After Failing to Defend its November Opening Range

NZD/USD is going weak despite its November opening range that was superb figures. The currency has broken down to defend the November opening range right now in the market. NZD/USD takes ahead the lower highs and lower lows early this week after getting the reaction that is large than expected in the US consumer price index. The inflation stickiness may raise the participation in the US dollar as it can put pressure on Federal Reserve to apply higher interest rates soon.

It would not be a mature decision to change the aspects of the rising of rates, addressed by San Francisco President Mary Daly. Her comment suggests that FOMC will keep to its existing strategy as the pivotal banks will continue to showcase the temporary rise in inflation. However, the growth in the price may save USD ahead of the next FOMC interest rate decision on December 15, as the central bank has a hope of updating the summary of economic projections.

Till then, the currency pair of NZD/USD will depreciate as it may fall from its October prime point of 0.7219. Again, a decrease in the exchange rate will reduce the inclination in the retail market as per the market specialists and this year’s record. NZD/USD may face again a decline in the coming days as it will extend the series of lower highs and lower lows this week.

The advance from October low (0.6877) may proceed to unravel as the exchange flow has failed to defend the opening range of November. The future days are surely going to improve the weak zone of the NZD/USD and let’s see how things go in the way for the people who are looking for the currency pair to show its worth to traders who are eyeing to make money with these. For more updates like this, read our daily forex news.

 

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China’s Retail Sales Growth Impact & Forecast

The Chinese economy is going through a difficult time due to the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19). Meanwhile, China faces serious challenges from soaring energy prices. Coal and natural gas prices have soared over the past few months. As a result, the government has demanded that the private sector be restricted from working during peak hours.

However, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s economy is in relatively good shape. Since October, retail sales in China have increased by 4.9%. This is higher than the average of 3.5%. It was also relatively worse than the previous 4.4%. Meanwhile, according to data, industrial production increased by 3.5% in October. This is better than the average of 3.0% and the previous 3.1%. Sentiment in the Chinese real estate market is being shaken by a deepening debt crisis as real estate giants China Evergrande and Kaisa Group face default. “We expect policymakers to take more easing measures to prevent growth from falling too much,” said Oxford’s Kuijs, adding that weaker demand is driving the broader industry slowdown rather than just supply constraints. Weakening demand is causing not only supply constraints, but also a broader industry slowdown, he added.

Policy sources and analysts told Reuters that China’s central bank will be cautious about easing monetary policy to stimulate the economy as slowing economic growth and rising factory inflation fuel fears of stagflation. NBS spokeswoman Fu Linghui said at a briefing in Beijing on Monday that signs of stagflation are caused by short-term factors such as high global commodity prices. Capital investment continued to slow, according to 4,444 NBS data, up 6.1% in the first 10 months compared to the same period a year ago, up from a 6.2% increase in Reuters and a 7.3% increase in January-September.

“I think the macroeconomic policy is near a turning point. We expect the government to increase budget spending by the end of the year to stabilize the trend of declining investment,” said Zhang.

The daily chart shows that the USD/CNY pair has been under strong pressure over the past few weeks. The pair is down more than 2% since June. As a result, it fell below the 25-day moving average and the 50-day moving average. It is also close to the key support level of 6.355, which is the lowest level of the year.

So, the pair will see a big downtrend over the next few days. However, this depends on the generally fixed rate of the Central Bank of China

 

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EUR/JPY broke its eighth straight day of decline and is hovering around the 130.00 level

The pair has been under pressure from an upward US dollar backed by inflation data. In addition, the adjusted decline in US Treasury yields also contributed to the negative trend. The US dollar will strengthen on Tuesday as it continues to hold its 16-month high near 95.40. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields were moderated by mixed market sentiment ahead of the release of US retail sales data this afternoon.

In addition to data on US retail sales, market sentiment will also be influenced by future data on the gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro area and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. According to previous data, industrial production in the Euro zone fell 0.2% m/m in September and 5.2% in the last 12 months. Japan reported weak third-quarter GDP data and Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda hinted that the COVID-19 financing program could be phased out.

Meanwhile, the dollar continued to strengthen. The reason could be a hint that the Fed will cut rates at the November 23rd FOMC meeting. This has weakened the yen’s attractiveness as a safe haven. The pair’s price movement could be a tailwind due to US President Joe Biden’s $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Eurozone News reported that the escalating Belarusian border crisis along the border with Poland is escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe. ECB officials also continue to view inflationary pressures as temporary. The Netherlands also initiated a three-week lockdown over the weekend, Austria quarantined unvaccinated people, and Germany’s infection rate hit an all-time high. All of this has somehow affected the euro, and as a result, the euro has shown relatively low dynamics recently.

More broadly, the advance at 114.42 (2020 low) is still ongoing, with strong support from the 55-week EMA confirming the medium-term bullish sentiment. Further growth is expected to reach 137.49 (2018 high). A decisive break in this area will resume all long-term gains at 109.03 (2016 lows). The next target would be a 100% forecast from 114.42 to 142.88 and from 109.03 to 137.49. It will now be the preferred option as long as support remains at 127.91.

 

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EUR/USD accelerates decline below 1.1300

The EUR/USD exchange rate has been heavy this week. On Tuesday, it fell in the US and expanded in Asia. Now falls faster and reaches a few stops below 1.13. The US dollar sold in almost all directions and continued higher on Tuesday US time. The recent rise in the US dollar can be attributed to renewed concerns about the Chinese Evergrande and disproportionate sentiment in Asian indices following US-US trade news headlines. Chinese media previously reported that online sales platform Evergrande had closed some departments, further exacerbating the risk of default. Meanwhile, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said

China is not keeping up with its Phase 1 trade deal.

Additionally, the dollar is still supported by strong US retail sales data, which has reinforced expectations of Fed tightening, pushing Treasury yields up the curve. U.S. retail sales increased for the third straight month in October, up 1.7% year-over-year. 1.4% is expected.

Currently, market participants don’t know how much, in a few months, politicians may worry about inflation. Central bankers are lagging behind the curve and appear unpredictable in monetary policy consistently over time. Hedging is a logical consequence, which again increases demand for high-yielding assets like the dollar that are ready to continue the rally.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic data reflected global uncertainty. A survey of Germany’s ZEW found a sharp drop in ratings on the current situation in November, but an improvement in economic sentiment. The country’s inflation was confirmed at 4.6% y/y in October and the wholesale price index jumped to 15.2% y/y. In October, the lowest level since November 2011, Richard Curtin, chief economist for the Surveys of Consumers, said: “Consumer confidence that inflation and effective policies to mitigate its impact has not yet been developed,” said Richard Curtin. “In early November, consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in ten years.”.

The forthcoming macroeconomic calendar includes the second release of EU third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data (not expected to change to 2.2%) and US retail sales for October, scheduled for Tuesday. The union will release the final inflation data for October on Thursday when the US releases its regular weekly jobless claims data.

EUR/USD is trading at levels last seen in July 2020 and will continue to decline. The technical data on the weekly chart showed increased bearish potential. The pair fell below the 200 SMA after fighting for more than a month before accelerating south. The 20 SMA confidently headed south rather than longer, reflecting growing buying interest. At the same time, technical indicators suggest that the thrust remains at an uneven negative level, but still lowers the other leg. The daily chart suggests a correction rally is imminent. The momentum indicator improved slightly while the RSI lost its bearish strength and stabilized at 34. However, the bearish trend remains stable as all moving averages hold a bearish slope much higher than the current level.

Immediate support will break below the 1.1400 threshold and test the 1.1330 price point. Another bearish extension exposes the 1.1260 level and long-term static support. A correction rally, on the other hand, may reach the 1.1520 area first and then the 1.1610 area later. Sellers are more likely to defend the latter.

 

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RBNZ Survey – Inflation is expected to rise & to be around 3%

Aggressive polls at the Reserve Bank showed a very sharp rise in expectations for future inflation. The results of the RBNZ’s latest quarterly forecast survey could fuel speculation that the RBNZ could raise its official cash rate by up to 50 basis points in a November 24 interest rate review. Click here for details of the survey results. The RBNZ has been tracking this survey very closely and in some cases was very strongly influenced by the results of interest rate decisions. At least for the latest results, next week’s OCR should increase by 25 basis points to 0.75%. Satish Ranchhod, a senior economist at Westpac, said the latest poll, along with other recent data, “shows increased inflationary pressures in the medium term.” Most notable in the survey is two-year inflation expectations.

In general, these numbers do not fluctuate much between surveys. However, in the latest survey, inflation expectations rose from 2.27% three months ago to 2.96% in two years. This is a huge step according to the criteria of this study.

The 2.96% value is the highest since the 3.00% value in the same survey in June 2011. Prior to June 2011, the same survey had to go back to the early 1990s to find higher numbers. Short-term inflation expectations for one year have risen from 3.02% three months ago to 3.7% in the latest survey.

The latest number is definitely to worry about the RBNZ. Perhaps he is most plagued by inflation expectations five years from now. This particular survey had only expectations for the five years from 2017 and this time, in about five years, that number has reached a record high, rising from 2.03% three months ago to 2.17%. That’s a big step. And, as I said, it may be the most worrisome statistic of the whole survey. The RBNZ wants long-term inflation expectations to be “fixed” at around 2%, which may indicate that companies will budget higher prices in the future, so this rise we concerned. The poll results are the last important part of the economic puzzle ahead of the RBNZ’s next interest rate decision on Wednesday, November 24th.

And poll results follow other economic data that continue to faint positively. As RBNZ raised the OCR from 0.25% to 0.5% on October 6, the annual inflation rate at the end of September was 4.9%, much higher than expected, and the unemployment rate was much lower than expected. .. The

RBNZ has two goals: keep inflation within 1% and 3% and support maximum sustainable employment. Now, while current inflation is clearly out of range, economists believe that they have already reached the maximum level of sustainable employment; a labor shortage is clear and can put upward pressure on wages.

 

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Gold price outlook: XAU/USD Bulls bullish amid weak US dollar in Asia

Asia’s gold is rallying as the US dollar offset some of its overnight gains as the US dollar breaks new cyclical highs following the re-election of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. According to ANZ Bank analysts, the market immediately began pricing in relation to a gradual reduction in asset purchases and interest rate hikes through June. “This caused gold to plummet after 10-year Treasury yields raised more than 8 basis points.”

Meanwhile, yellow metals were supported by rising idle winds. “This ultimately catalyzed the company to break out of a months-long decline from historical highs, driven by a significant wave of CTA short coverage and growing Chinese demand for gold, explained analysts at TD Securities. “But we do note that the battle between high inflation and market prices caused by central bank inflation is not over.”

Going forward, the Fed minutes will be events for the dollar and yellow metal. Markets will be looking for new clues as to when to raise interest rates on how quickly the Fed can shrink. “The protocol will undoubtedly reflect a variety of risk perspectives, but most officials don’t think they will be in a hurry to raise rates given the massive net job loss and expected slowing inflation, said analysts at TD Securities.