Daily forex discussion and Technical analysis

[forexnews]

Fundamental News And Technical Analysis Report – 15 February 2023​

JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER SAYS HE HOPES NEW BOJ CHIEF WILL HEED GOVERNMENT GOAL OF HIGHER WAGES​

Asian stock market closes in green on Tuesday. The Shanghai Composite is in green 0.28% at 3293.28. Overall, the Singapore MSCI is down 0.05% at 300.95. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is down 0.24% at 21113.76. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is up 0.64 at 27602.77. While the Topix index is up 0.78% at 1993.09, South Korea’s Kospi is up 0.53% at 2465.64. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.18% at 7430.90.

TOP NEWS OF THE DAY: –​

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Wednesday he hoped the central bank’s new leadership will take into account the government’s goal of achieving higher wages and sustained economic growth, in guiding monetary policy.

Kishida also said it was premature to say whether the government and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) should revise a joint policy statement, which commits the BOJ to achieve its 2% inflation target at the earliest date possible.

“We’d like to achieve structural wage growth and sustainable economic growth. I hope the new BOJ leadership guide policy taking account our policy direction,” Kishida told parliament.

The government on Tuesday named academic Kazuo Ueda as its pick to become next central bank governor, a surprise choice that could heighten the chance of an end to its unpopular yield control policy.

Market Summary as per 14/02/2023:

European equities Tuesday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded down 0.11% at 15380.56, CAC 40 futures up 0.07% at 7213.81. UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 0.08 at 7953.85.

In the U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Closed down 0.46% at 34089.27. The S&P 500 down 0.03% at 4136.13 and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.57% at 11960.14, NYSE 0.17% closes down at 16025.11.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY​

GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

TRADE SUGGESTION – SELL AT 1.21328, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.20566, SL AT 1.21836

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[forexnews]

Fundamental News And Technical Analysis Report - 17 February 2023​

WITH HAWKISH FED REMARKS, THE DOLLAR JUMPS TO A SIX-WEEK HIGH​

Asian stock market closes in green on Thursday. The Shanghai Composite is in red 0.96% at 3249.03. Overall, the Singapore MSCI is up 1.41% at 301.45. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is up 0.84% at 20987.67. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is up 0.71 at 27696.44. While the Topix index is up 0.67% at 2001.09, South Korea’s Kospi is up 1.96% at 2475.48. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.79% at 7410.30.

TOP NEWS OF THE DAY: –​

The U.S. dollar surged to a six-week high in early European trade Friday, after strong U.S. economic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers pointed to more interest rate hikes.

At 02:00 ET (07:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.5% higher at 104.345, on track for a third consecutive week of gains.

Data released Thursday pointed to a resilient U.S. economy, as the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits declined unexpectedly last week, while producer prices accelerated in January.

This was followed on from retail sales rebounding sharply in January after two straight monthly declines and consumer inflation coming in stronger than expected earlier in the week.

“The data provides ammunition for the Fed to remain in hawkish mode and for the market to continue to price two to three more 25bp Fed rate hikes by the summer,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Market Summary as per 16/02/2023:

European equities Thursday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded up 0.18% at 15533.64, and CAC 40 futures up 0.89% at 7366.16. UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. is up 0.18 at 8012.53.

In the U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.26% at 33696.85. The S&P 500 was down 1.38% at 4090.41 and the Nasdaq 100 was down 1.78% at 11855.83, NYSE 0.89% closes at 15873.78.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY​

GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

TRADE SUGGESTION – SELL AT 1.20090, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.19608, SL AT 1.20262

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[forexnews]

Fundamental News And Technical Analysis Report - 24 February 2023​

GERMANY’S FOURTH-QUARTER GDP SHRANK BY 0.4%​

Asian stock market closes in red on Thursday. The Shanghai Composite is in red by 0.11% at 3287.48. Overall, the Singapore MSCI is in red 1.01% at 295.15. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is down 0.35% at 20351.35. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is down 1.34 at 27104.32. While the Topix index is down 1.11% at 1975.25, South Korea’s Kospi is up 0.89% at 2439.09. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.27% at 7304.90.

TOP NEWS OF THE DAY: –​

The German economy contracted at the end of the year, as inflation and the energy crisis took their toll on household consumption and capital investment.

The German economy shrank by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the previous three months, the statistics office said on Friday.

Preliminary data from the office had pointed to a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction adjusted for price and calendar effects. In the third quarter of 2022, GDP saw slight growth of 0.5% compared to the three months prior.

After relief measures such as the fuel discount and the 9-euro transport ticket ended, consumers spent less on consumption in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter, the statistics office said. Household spending was down 1.0%.

Market Summary as per 23/02/2023:

European equities Thursday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded up 0.49% at 15475.69, and CAC 40 futures up 0.25% at 7317.43. UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. is down 0.29 at 7907.72.

In the U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.33% at 33153.91. The S&P 500 up 0.53% at 4012.32 and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.72% at 11590.40, NYSE is up 0.35% closing at 15584.92.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY​

GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

TRADE SUGGESTION – SELL AT 1.20156, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.19912, SL AT 1.20366

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[andengireng]

AUDNZD today as we see here, the price is going bearish, so it is good if you open sell position when the price breaks resistance area at 1.900 with potential target up to 50 pips below

 

[andengireng]

GBPNZD today as we see here, the price is going bullish, so it is good if you open buy position when the price breaks middle area at 1.9377 with potential target up to next resistance 1.9487

 

[forexnews]

Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 07 March 2023​

MARKET UPDATE:​

The market started the week quietly yesterday, as many participants had anticipated, with most items trading in well-known ranges. There was little excitement for the Asian open as all the main American indices concluded the day nearly flat. Most of the major currencies continued to trade in very narrow ranges against the dollar, and US government yields concluded the day somewhat higher.

Despite a very dull (and expected) start to the week, traders anticipate ending it in a little more jaded manner due to the onslaught of economic data and central bank releases they will face as the sessions go on. The big event of the day will be Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony before Congress, and because the markets have been leaning more hawkish in response to recent US data, every word the Fed Chair says will be heavily scrutinized. Any changes in the recent outlook and language could cause some strong moves across all markets, as benchmark US rates are currently near multiyear highs.

Looking ahead to today’s trade, the RBA starts off for the Asian session with its most recent cash rate announcement and statement. Another 25 bps are largely anticipated from them, but any change in Governor Phillip Lowe’s forward guidance may cause market volatility. Until we hear from the Fed Chair later in the day, it’s rather calm during the European session and into the North American time zone.

HOW DID THE US SESSION GO?​

Ivey PMI for Canada dropped to 51.6 from 60.1, below the predicted value of 55.9. $ Factory Orders m/m declined by 1.6%, less than the previous value of 1.7% but better than the expected -1.8% decrease. The data shows that both currencies’ economic performance has been inconsistent, with a modest negative skew.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE ASIAN SESSION?​

The RBA’s interest rate decision (anticipated to increase by 25 basis points) and its forecast for the rate hike path would take centre stage. The Australian dollar could fall below the five-day range, or about between 0.6700 and 0.6780, in response to a dovish rate statement.

THE DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)​

KEY NEWS EVENTS TODAY​

Fed Chair Powell Testifies

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK​

GBPUSD​

Price is being driven lower by a descending resistance line approaching our first support, multiple-swing low support at 1.1923. It’s important to note that the Ichi Moku cloud is also exhibiting negative momentum, which may strengthen our belief that the price will continue to decline.

Our first resistance, which is a multiple swing high resistance and coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, is at 1.2144.

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[kesean]

Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 07 March 2023​

MARKET UPDATE:​

The market started the week quietly yesterday, as many participants had anticipated, with most items trading in well-known ranges. There was little excitement for the Asian open as all the main American indices concluded the day nearly flat. Most of the major currencies continued to trade in very narrow ranges against the dollar, and US government yields concluded the day somewhat higher.

Despite a very dull (and expected) start to the week, traders anticipate ending it in a little more jaded manner due to the onslaught of economic data and central bank releases they will face as the sessions go on. The big event of the day will be Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony before Congress, and because the markets have been leaning more hawkish in response to recent US data, every word the Fed Chair says will be heavily scrutinized. Any changes in the recent outlook and language could cause some strong moves across all markets, as benchmark US rates are currently near multiyear highs.

Looking ahead to today’s trade, the RBA starts off for the Asian session with its most recent cash rate announcement and statement. Another 25 bps are largely anticipated from them, but any change in Governor Phillip Lowe’s forward guidance may cause market volatility. Until we hear from the Fed Chair later in the day, it’s rather calm during the European session and into the North American time zone.

HOW DID THE US SESSION GO?​

Ivey PMI for Canada dropped to 51.6 from 60.1, below the predicted value of 55.9. $ Factory Orders m/m declined by 1.6%, less than the previous value of 1.7% but better than the expected -1.8% decrease. The data shows that both currencies’ economic performance has been inconsistent, with a modest negative skew.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE ASIAN SESSION?​

The RBA’s interest rate decision (anticipated to increase by 25 basis points) and its forecast for the rate hike path would take centre stage. The Australian dollar could fall below the five-day range, or about between 0.6700 and 0.6780, in response to a dovish rate statement.

THE DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)​

KEY NEWS EVENTS TODAY​

Fed Chair Powell Testifies

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK​

GBPUSD​

Price is being driven lower by a descending resistance line approaching our first support, multiple-swing low support at 1.1923. It’s important to note that the Ichi Moku cloud is also exhibiting negative momentum, which may strengthen our belief that the price will continue to decline.

Our first resistance, which is a multiple swing high resistance and coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, is at 1.2144.

Visit Us For View Full Report - Capital Street FX​

this is actually good

 

[forexnews]

Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends- 16 March 2023​

MARKET UPDATE:​

Credit Suisse loses 25% and crashes the market.

Last night, as the share price of Swiss multinational Credit Suisse plummeted by almost 25% in a single trading session, concerns about contagion in the banking sector came true. Though not to the extent that some investors may have anticipated earlier in the day, American stock indices suffered, with the Dow ending the day down 0.87%, the S&P down 0.7%, and the Nasdaq only managing to finish in the black. On hearing the news, Haven Gold and the USD rose, while the Euro and Swiss fell.

ECB Important Rate Decision

As the European Central Bank is ready to announce its most recent rate decision, the timing of yesterday’s market turbulence could not have been worse. At the start of yesterday’s session, we would have been confidently talking about a rate hike but chances of that dropped dramatically during the day, from 90% chance of a 50bp hike down to 20% by the close. It would be a shock to the market if we see 25bps or even no change, but these are once again unprecedented times for both traders and indeed central banks, so be prepared for more moves in the single currency in the days ahead.

Another Day of Market Chaos Upcoming?

Looking ahead to the rest of the trading day, anticipate once more that investors will be examining each new news on the banking industry. In terms of economic data releases, the Asian session already saw an unexpectedly positive outcome for Australian employment numbers. The regular weekly US employment claims numbers come out later in the day, and the critical ECB rate announcement with its accompanying statement and press conference comes right after.

What does it mean for the Asian Session?

The rebound of risky assets is likely to be constrained by lingering worries about the risks of contagion from the American financial industry. More banks, even those outside the US, might report problems if history is any indication. In this case, it is very likely that investors will seek “safe haven” in the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and gold.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK​

GBPUSD​

The price of the pound presently could move between the first support level at 1.1927 and the first resistance level at 1.2139 on the GBP/USD chart.

An overlap support level at 1.1927 acts as the first support level and could offer the price significant support if it declines. Moreover, there is an overlap support level at 1.2010 that coincides with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, serving as an intermediate support level.

The initial resistance level, however, which is at 1.2139, is an overlap resistance level. Price may move upward towards the second resistance level at 1.2208 if it were to break through this level.

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[forexnews]

Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends- 27 March 2023​

MARKET UPDATE:​

Continued Volatility on the Stock Markets​

As a result of the upheaval in the banking sector and central bank activity, the investor roller coaster persisted on Friday as global market indices remained volatile. At the end of another long week, the US market defied the trend by seeing all three major indices close higher: the Dow rose 0.41%, the S&P gained 0.56%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.3%. There was a sea of red on European and Asian stock exchanges. Fed speakers who all gave the market assurances about the soundness of the banking system supported US markets, and the dollar’s recovery from the post-Fed decline was continued. Treasury’s remained in their current levels, and gold concluded the day marginally lower.

Dollar in Favour: Friday’s gains were 0.5% higher

The dollar suffered a little last week as currency markets focused on the likely end of the FOMC’s rapid tightening cycle after the Federal Reserves raised expectations by 25 basis points. The dollar gained much of its lost territory versus the majors back during the last few trading days of the week, though. As central banks seek confidence in the wake of recent banking sector concerns, traders are currently searching for the next catalyst for currency changes. In terms of interest rate differentials, this appears to be a difficult call in the short term. Greater concerns have mainly overshadowed US statistics for the past few weeks, but at the end of last week we had two stronger prints: the weekly unemployment claims and the PMI numbers. If these readings continue to indicate to higher inflation in the US, anticipate the currency to increase.

This week’s market will be dominated by investor worries.

Apart from the German IFO Business Climate statistics today, there isn’t much scheduled to spook the scoreboard this coming week in terms of economic data releases. Investors will be able to assess the recent weeks’ extraordinary volatility and perhaps begin to anticipate the emergence of a clearer picture as a result. There are, of course, no assurances in this, and there is still a high likelihood of abrupt, aggressive changes, so as we move into what we hope will be slightly more favorable market conditions, traders should anticipate being heavily focused on the newswires.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK​

GBPUSD​

The general momentum of the GBP/USD chart is currently neutral, indicating that the price may move back and forth between the first resistance and first support levels.

The first support level is located at 1.1630 and is an overlap support that lines up with a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement. This level can serve as a significant region of buying interest. In addition, a pullback support level at 1.1826 is an intermediate support level that might be used if the price were to decline from the current level.

On the resistance side, the first resistance level, which is a swing-high resistance, is located at 1.2440. Price could experience selling pressure at this level if it were to rise from its current level. 1.2671 is the second resistance level, which is also an overlap resistance.

Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[forexnews]

Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends- 12 April 2023​

FUNDAMENTAL REPORT FORECAST​

MARKET UPDATE:​

• As investors awaited critical inflation data and the unofficial start of the first-quarter reporting season, Wall Street equities lost momentum late in the session and ended the day with a mixed performance.
• 
  
• It’s the quiet before the storm, said Detrick. “Traders are adopting a wait-and-see strategy to see how the inflation data comes in, given the importance of tomorrow’s inflation data, the impending release of the Fed minutes, and the impending earnings season.”
• 
  
• Analysts predict that the headline and core CPI will decline to 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, monthly. The core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is anticipated to gather steam, climbing to 5.6% from 5.5%, even though consensus projections call for a considerable decline in the headline number – to 5.2% from 6.0%.
• 
  
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 1.5% to $90.18 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 1.3% to $94.12 per barrel. Concerns about supply disruptions in important producing nations and growing demand as the world economy keeps improving were the main factors driving the increase in oil prices.
• 
  
• Spot gold rose barely 0.1% to $1,776.25 an ounce, remaining virtually unchanged as investors adopted a wait-and-see attitude in the face of conflicting market sentiment.
• 
  
• The US Dollar Index, which gauges the dollar’s strength against a basket of other currencies, fell 0.1% to 96.62, showing the dollar’s marginally declining value relative to other important currencies.

Technical Outlook​

GBPUSD​

The price of the GBP/USD currency pair has broken below an ascending support line, which may be a sign that a negative move is possible. The chart of the pair is currently displaying bearish momentum.

The first support level, which is located at 1.2349, is an overlap support level, meaning that it has previously served as support and may do so again in the future.

At 1.2274, the second support level—also an overlap support level—is located. At this level, the price might also find support if it were to keep dropping.

The 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the first resistance level, which is an overlap resistance level, are both located at 1.2439. Price might perhaps encounter resistance at this level and start to decline in the direction of the support levels if it were to increase.

The second resistance level is located at 1.2526 and is a multi-swing high resistance level, meaning it has previously served as resistance and might do so again in the future.

Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[forexnews]

Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends- 30 May 2023​

MARKET UPDATE:​

MARKETS BOOSTED BY DEAL OPTIMISM FOR DEBT​

Yesterday’s bullish day for the world’s markets was fuelled by hope for a Washington, DC, debt ceiling agreement. Numerous important financial markets were closed due to bank holidays, but futures markets managed to edge up. The S&P futures were up 0.3%, and the Nasdaq futures moved up by 0.4%. These advances came on top of big gains on Friday when Wall Street was last open. As markets begin to further price in another rate hike from the Fed, Treasury futures have likewise adopted a more aggressive tone. The dollar experienced a rather stagnant session as FX traders took advantage of the holidays to relax, but things might pick up today.

AFTER A LONG WEEKEND, MARKETS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE.​

Today’s opening of the financial markets follows a long weekend for several major cities. Although a significant portion of the European and North American markets were closed yesterday, the Asian market was open, and investors anticipate that today’s markets will be more liquid and volatile than usual. The agreement on the debt ceiling was undoubtedly the main news over the weekend coming out of the US, and further reports yesterday have been encouraging, so anticipate that attitude to lead as markets reopen. In the Asian and European sessions, there aren’t many data releases today, but the CB Consumer Confidence data will start the tier 1 figures in the New York session, with the market anticipating a 99.1 print.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK​

GBPUSD​

A bearish symmetrical triangle pattern on the GBP/USD chart indicates a bearish momentum now.

A considerable support area, known as overlap support, is provided by the first support level at 1.2279.

A second support level at 1.2192 similarly overlaps support, and it is also present. This level’s usefulness as a possible support region is further supported by prior occurrences of price movement bouncing off it.

On the resistance side, an overlap resistance is represented by the first resistance level at 1.2377. The bearish trend may temporarily stall or retrace because this level acts as a temporary barrier to price increases.

A second resistance level at 1.2470 is also present and is known as an overlap resistance. It has been demonstrated in the past that this level is significant as a price level when selling pressure has developed.

EURUSD​

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[forexnews]

Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 06 June 2023​

MARKETS CONSOLIDATE BEFORE CENTRAL BANKS​

After a good week-ending, global markets had a day of consolidation yesterday, albeit at elevated levels. As investors considered next week’s Fed announcement, the major US indices experienced a mixed day, with the Dow losing 0.59%, the S&P declining 0.2%, and the Nasdaq closing just over flat. The ISM Service PMI came out weaker than expected at 50.3 versus the predicted 52.6, which caused the dollar to take a slight dip following the first significant data release of the week from the US. Oil dropped back after its OPEC-inspired spike, and WTI returned to trading around the $72/barrel level. Gold bounced off the $1,940 mark once more.

CENTRAL BANKS AND UPCOMING DATA​

As there were few macroeconomic data releases on the calendar yesterday, the financial markets had a little break. Today, however, there are a few significant events coming up. The Australian market, where the RBA will publish its most recent rate decision, will be the center of attention throughout the Asian session. Investors are divided over their course of action. Major announcements are absent from the European session, but the US session is expected to shift attention to Canada when the Ivey PMI statistics are released as a preview of tomorrow’s Bank of Canada decision.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK​

GBPUSD​

The bullish momentum on the GBP/USD chart indicates an upward trend.

1.2377 is the initial support level, which is also known as overlap support. Price has already bounced off overlap support, showing that it is an important level where buyers may enter the market.

1.2306 is a swing low support and serves as the second level of support. During the most recent downward price movement, this price level served as support; it may do so once more.

1.2467 is the initial resistance level. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance level both indicate this level.

1.2536 is the second resistance level. As an overlap resistance level that is also at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, this level is further strengthened. Resistance and a significant Fibonacci level together frequently signal a firm price ceiling.

Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[siya gee]

T

FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT – 14 OCTOBER 2022​

STOCKS MAY BE LESS BULLISH AFTER FUNDAMENTAL UNCHANGED​

Asia Pacific stocks surged on Friday. The Shanghai Composite is up 1.84% at 3,071.38. Overall, the Singapore MSCI is up 0.04% at 274.45. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is up 2.80% at 16,865.00. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is up 3.51% at 27,140.00, while the Topix index is up 3.06% at 1901.50. South Korea’s Kospi is up 2.28% at 2,212.13. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.75% at 6758.80.

TOP NEWS OF THE DAY:​

An eye-popping turnaround in stocks may be less bullish than hoped for, with traders saying short-term hedging activity buoyed equities while leaving the market’s grim fundamentals unchanged.

Data showing consumer prices rose more than expected in September initially sent the S&P 500 tumbling to its lowest point since November 2020 on Thursday, only for the index to mount a furious rally towards midday. In total, the index swung 5.4 percentage points on the day to close up 2.6%.

Market Summary as per 13/10/2022:

European equities Thursday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded up 1.51% at 12,355.58, CAC 40 futures up 1.04% at 5879.20 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 0.35% at 6850.28.

In the U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 2.83% at 30038.73. The S&P 500 up 2.60% at 3699.89 and the Nasdaq 100 up 2.30% at 11033.58, NYSE closes up 2.53% at 13888.96.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY​

GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1.1292, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.1460 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.1220

VIEW FULL REPORT VISIT - CAPITALSTREETFX

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