Forex News Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Inflation Data Changes Market Sentiment

US CPI data published yesterday did not meet expectations. Analysts predicted 3.2%, but in fact it turned out = 3.4% (value a month ago = 3.1%). This hardly means a reversal of the large-scale trend toward weakening inflation (a year ago CPI = 6.5%), but to some extent investors have become wary. According to FedWatch, expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March dropped to about 65% (before the news was about 70%).

The publication of the news caused a noticeable surge in volatility in financial markets. Let's pay attention to the S&P 500 chart. The index price is within an uptrend (as shown by the blue channel), however, this trend may change:

→ Tops A-B-C form divergence with the RSI indicator — a sign of weakening demand near the upper border of the channel.
→ Yesterday, the price only slightly and briefly exceeded the A-B-C formation, forming top D. That is, a false bullish breakout was formed. This type of price behavior at top D confirms the activity of the bears at the level of 4,800.

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[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY Analysis: US Dollar Weakens after Inflation Data

The US dollar weakened after data showed US consumer price inflation in December exceeded economists' expectations. This has raised some doubts that the Fed will cut rates. US consumer prices rose in December as inflation continued its upward trend, rising 0.3% for the month and 3.4% year-on-year, versus economists' forecasts of 0.2% and 3.2%, respectively. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said it would be too early to cut rates in March, while Richmond Fed Chairman Tom Barkin said rising inflation was too narrowly focused on goods. American monetary authorities will probably be in no hurry to launch a cycle of lower borrowing costs this year. Against this background, expectations regarding a March adjustment to the value have been revised, but in general such a scenario is still considered possible. Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), the focus of investors' attention will be on statistics from the United States on manufacturing inflation: the producer price index is expected to increase in December from 0.9% to 1.3% in annual terms and from 0.0% to 0.1% per month.

EUR/USD

Quotes of the EUR/USD pair are holding near the 1.0975 mark, preparing to end the week with slight upward dynamics. According to EUR/USD technical analysis, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1000, a break higher could trigger a move towards 1.1045. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0958, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0910.

Trading participants are closely monitoring comments from ECB representatives. Board member of the regulator Isabel Schnabel said yesterday that indicators of economic sentiment in the region have probably reached minimum values, while the short-term economic prospects remain weak. The official also noted that the labour market remains resistant to changes made by the regulator, but a return of inflation to the target level of 2.0% in 2025 is still possible. During the day, data on consumer price indices will be published in Spain and France, which may remain at 3.1% and 4.1%, respectively.

The same trading range with boundaries of 1.0875 and 1.1000 remains. Now the price has moved away from the upper limit of the range and may continue to decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Watch FXOpen's 8 - 12 January Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: FTSE, NIKKEI, AUD/USD, BITCOIN ETFs

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• High hopes for FTSE 100 deflate after first week of 2024 #FTSE
• Nikkei 225 sets 21st century high #Nikkei
• Inflation in Australia continues to decline. AUD/USD tests important support #Inflation #AUDUSD
• Finally! The SEC approves all 11 applications for Bitcoin ETFs #SEC #BitcoinETFs

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenuk #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

 

[FXOpen Trader]

BTC/USD price and the “Three Black Crows” pattern

On January 11, the highly publicized Bitcoin ETF began trading after it was officially approved by the SEC. On this day, the price of Bitcoin exceeded USD 48,800, as shown by the chart. Bloomberg writes that new US spot funds achieved net inflows of USD 819 million in the first two days of trading.

However, from the high on January 11, a dizzying fall began, and already at the low on January 12, Bitcoin was worth less than USD 41,800. This dynamic may illustrate the “buy the rumors, sell the facts” strategy, which we wrote about on January 3 when predicting the price of Bitcoin in 2024.

News of the ETF's approval sent the ATR above 1,100 on the 4-hour chart, the last time it did so was in mid-June 2022. The market was overly active, and what is important is that three bearish candles (marked with an arrow) summed up this activity. They can be interpreted as the three black crows pattern.

According to statistics from Tim Bulkowski, this pattern works in 78% of cases and means a trend change from bullish to bearish. According to CandleScanner statistics for 20 years, collected on the S&P 500 index market, the pattern turned out to be false only in 18.6% of cases out of 543 occurrences.

Does this mean that the statistics will work on the Bitcoin price chart?

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD Analysis: The Dollar Declines after the Release of Data on the Producer Price Index

The dollar fell on Friday after US producer prices fell unexpectedly in December, fueling expectations of an imminent US rate cut. The final demand producer price index decreased by 0.1%, which was due to a decrease in the cost of goods. Prices for services remained unchanged last month, raising the possibility of lower inflation in the coming months. The US currency previously benefited from risk aversion after strikes in Yemen came in response to attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces on shipping in the Red Sea, widening the regional conflict caused by Israel's war in the Gaza Strip. Traders see an 80% chance of an interest rate cut in March, up from around 70% chance seen before the PPI report.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is trading around the 1.0960 level, moving away from last week's lows. According to EUR/USD technical analysis, Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1000, a break higher could trigger a move towards 1.1045. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0940, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0910.

The euro was put under pressure by soft comments from the ECB. ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday that the worst of inflation is likely over and that interest rates will be cut if inflation falls to 2%. Dismissing those expectations, ECB chief economist Philip R. Lane said recent inflation data broadly supported the central bank's current views, meaning rate cuts were not on the table for debate in the near future. On the data side, France's consumer price inflation (CPI) rose 4.1% year-on-year in December, while Spain's annual inflation fell to 3.1% last month.

The trading range with boundaries of 1.0875 and 1.1000 remains. Now the price is above the middle of the range and may continue to rise.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

US Dollar Holds Up Well Despite Slight Inflation Increase Spurring Pessimism

This morning, as the week's trading begins, a small fly has landed in the otherwise very clear ointment with regard to the anticipated interest rate reductions that Western central banks could make during the early to middle parts of 2024.

Optimism ruled in the earliest days of the new year when mainstream commentary was adorned with reports suggesting that the levels of inflation that had created serious economic concerns in the United States were now under control and have been for some time, allowing the Federal Reserve Bank to possibly review its ultra-conservative monetary policy of continuing rate increases despite over a year of decreasing inflation.

Reports which take into account the inflation figures within the US economy across the entirety of 2023 are now beginning to surface, and it appears that inflation from January 2023 to December 2023 stood at 3.4%, whereas January 2023 until November 2023 showed an inflation figure of 3.1%.

Compounding this matter, the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.3% in December 2023 compared to having fallen by 0.1% in November 2023.

Whether this is enough of a blip to turn the consensus away from the Federal Reserve Bank looking at reducing interest rates during the course of 2024 is yet unknown; however, perhaps the central bank's unusually cautious approach, which was displayed during 2023, can be considered in these circumstances.

As far as reaction within the currency markets is concerned, the US dollar has not declined against other Western-market major currencies by any level significant enough to consider it related to December's inflation figures.

In Britain, a similar central bank policy - a policy of ultra-conservatism - has been implemented to attempt to curb similar levels of rampant inflation which took place two years ago and sustained itself for many months, accompanied by a high-profile 'cost of living crisis', however when looking at the value of the British pound against the US dollar this morning, the pound has not gained much ground.

Pricing according to FXOpen charts shows that on Friday, January 12, the GBPUSD pair was trading at 1.27473, whereas this morning, during the early hours of the London trading session, the GBPUSD pair was trading at 1.27419.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Tesla's Bleak Month Continues, but Is It Really That Bad?

Share price volatility has been synonymous with Tesla for many years now, the company's unique, somewhat giant character echoing the polarising nature of its founder and CEO, Elon Musk.

An unusual company among its big-cap peers, Tesla is one of the most popular stocks on the global market, its volatility offering a diversion from steady, conservative bricks-and-mortar companies, which often dominate the top-tier blue-chip contingents of well-respected indices.

Since 2024 began just two weeks ago, Tesla shares have been declining in value at a rate that is relatively rapid for a firm whose stock is listed on a major exchange and whose peers are the 'Magnificent 7' tech firms which dominate North America's tech stock environment.

On December 28, 2023, FXOpen charts showed Tesla stock to be trading at $264 per share; however, as the new year began, Tesla started to decline and has continued on that trajectory thus far, arriving at $218.55 by the earliest hours of the European session this morning according to the FXOpen chart.

Some reports cite that Tesla stock has fallen by as much as 12% since the start of the year and allude to a 'sell-off' by many investors.

This is a very interesting period of volatility for Tesla, especially given the bullish trend towards tech stocks in general during the course of last year, in which they collectively rose from the doldrums that blighted the tech stock market during 2022 and doubled in value during the course of 2023.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Microsoft Becomes the Most Expensive Company in the World, Surpassing Apple

According to the results of trading shares of AAPL and MSFT yesterday, the market capitalization is:
→ Apple: USD 2.875 trillion.
→ Microsoft: USD 2.887 trillion.

This is facilitated by:
→ positive expectations of investors in shares of MSFT, connected with the leading positions of the company in the field of artificial intelligence;
→ negative sentiments regarding AAPL and demand for its products (as we wrote on January 4). Moreover, the New York Times writes that the Justice Department is preparing to initiate a large-scale antitrust case against Apple because of the dominant position of Apple's devices on the market and the measures that the company used to protect against threats to its business.

MarketWatch provides FactSet statistics on analysts' forecasts:
→ AAPL: +6% for the next 12 months, MSFT: +9%.
→ MSFT has such ratings: "buy": 90%, "neutral": 10%, "sell": 0%.
→ AAPL has such ratings: "buy": 57%, "neutral": 34%, "sell": 9%.

While the price of AAPL is below the maximum of 2023 by approximately 6%, the price of MSFT shares managed to renew the historical record in 2024: at the peak on January 11, MSFT gave more than 390 USD per share.

On January 31, data will be published on Microsoft’s Q4. It is not excluded that while waiting for positive figures, the price of the stock will increase, approaching the psychological level of 400 USD.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

US Dollar a Bastion of Strength After Christopher Waller's Calm Speech

Yesterday was a day that many corporate giants and private individuals across the United States had been waiting for, as it was the day during which Federal Reserve Bank governor Christopher Waller gave an official speech in the public domain regarding the possibilities of the United States economy reaching a point at which it can sustain an inflation rate of 2%.

Monetary policymakers within the United States had set themselves a target of driving down the rampant inflation the country experienced approximately two years ago to a sufficient level that it would reach 2% and remain at a steady 2% for the longer term.

Until yesterday's speech by Mr Waller, there was no tangible information from the Federal Reserve relating to how achievable this target would be. However, companies and investors alike may well have continued to tread a cautious route because of the continual interest rate rises the Federal Reserve had implemented over the course of last year despite inflation continuing to decrease.

This ultra-conservative monetary policy is not exclusive to the United States, of course. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England, both central banks which are responsible for the monetary policy of financial jurisdictions with equally important economies which are home to major currencies, had implemented comparatively strict measures to combat inflation by curbing spending with higher interest rates.

Another symptom of these rate rises alongside high inflation figures is that it increases the amount that private individuals and companies have to pay each month to cover their existing borrowing. This is a very important factor because if the proposed rate cuts take place this year on both sides of the Atlantic, more capital will likely be available from the same revenue figures, allowing companies to invest in growth or to report higher profits due to the lower operating costs compared to the past two years.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

The Dollar Continues to Strengthen since the Beginning of the Year

The dollar index is hovering at a one-month high against a basket of currencies as remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Waller dampened expectations of a March rate cut.

He said that while the U.S. is "within striking distance" of the Fed's 2% inflation target, the Fed should not rush to cut its benchmark interest rate until it is clear that lower inflation will be sustainable.

Market expectations for a rate cut in March fell to 62.2%, down from a forecast of 76.9% in the previous session, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

The EUR/USD chart today shows that:
→ The rate dropped below the important psychological mark of 1.09 euros per dollar. Now (in case of testing) this level can serve as resistance.
→ The decline in EUR/USD from the peak at the end of December 2023 has already exceeded 2.3%. Will the trend continue?

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: Gold Price Dips Again and Crude Oil Price Turns Red

Gold price is correcting gains below the $2,040 support. Crude oil prices declined steadily below the $72.90 support and moved into a bearish zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price climbed higher toward the $2,060 zone before it corrected lower against the US Dollar.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $2,040 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $72.90 support zone.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $72.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price rallied heavily above the $2,040 resistance. The price even spiked above $2,060 before there was a downside correction.

There was a move below the $2,040 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $2,030 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the $2,020 zone. A low is formed near $2,019.32 and the price is now showing bearish signs.

Immediate resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,062 swing high to the $2,019 low at $2,030.

The next major resistance is near a bearish trend line at $2,040. The trend line is close to the 50-hour simple moving average and coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,062 swing high to the $2,019 low.

The main resistance could be $2,055, above which the price could test the $2,070 resistance. The next major resistance is $2,080. An upside break above the $2,080 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,120. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,135 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $2,020 level. The first major support is near the $2,012 level. If there is a downside break below the $2,012 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,980 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Reaches a Monthly Maximum

The dollar rate rose yesterday as a market reaction to the statement by Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board, who advocated for a more measured approach to the launch of the monetary easing cycle. According to the official, inflation in the country has indeed reached the upper bounds of the target range of 2.0–3.0%. However, at the moment, it is necessary to ensure that prices remain within these limits or continue to decline in the longer term. Meanwhile, markets still believe that the regulator may begin adjusting borrowing costs at the March meeting. Currently, more than 70.0% of analysts expect such a scenario, compared to 80.0% last week. In the United States today, December statistics on retail sales and industrial production volumes will be published, as well as the monthly economic review from the Federal Reserve, known as the "Beige Book."

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows a slight decrease, consolidating near the 1.0870 mark and local lows from December 13. According to EUR/USD technical analysis, immediate resistance can be seen at the 1.0933 mark, and a breakthrough could trigger an increase to 1.0987. On the other hand, the nearest support is seen at the 1.0856 level, and a break below could lead the pair to 1.0825.

Macroeconomic statistics from Germany did not provide significant support for the single currency. Thus, revised inflation data for December showed no changes compared to November's statistics when the consumer price index was 0.1% on a monthly basis and 3.7% on an annual basis. Yesterday, the head of the National Bank of Austria, Robert Holzmann, stated that the European regulator may refrain from correcting monetary policy in 2024. This position was supported by the president of the German Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, and the director of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, who noted that it is too early to discuss a reduction in the interest rate since inflation rates exceed preliminary estimates. At the same time, the business sentiment index in Germany in January from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) rose from 12.8 points to 15.2 points, while analysts expected 12.0 points. The indicator of current economic conditions decreased from -77.1 points to -77.3 points, with a forecast of -77.0 points. Investors will focus on December inflation data in the eurozone today, but no significant market reaction is expected. In addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak later in the day.

A new descending channel has formed at the week's lows. Currently, the price is in the middle of the channel and may continue to decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

The UK100 Price Plummeted After the Publication of Inflation Data

Yesterday, the stock market in the United Kingdom experienced a sharp decline following the release of new inflation data. The UK100 price, reflecting the leading British stock index FTSE, dropped approximately 1.5%. Moreover, the RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart fell below the value of 18 for the first time since July 2023.

Analysts attribute this decline to the published inflation data, which not only failed to meet economists' expectations but also indicated a possible strengthening of inflationary pressure in the country. CPI values: actual = 4.0%, expected = 3.8%, previous value = 3.9%.

This raised concerns among investors regarding the Bank of England's future steps in managing interest rates and the potential slowdown in the country's economic growth.

Sectors most sensitive to changes in interest rates, such as real estate and finance, showed the greatest decline. Significant decreases were also observed in the stocks of companies in the retail and consumer goods sectors, reflecting growing concerns about consumer confidence and spending.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

OPEC Forecasts an Increase in Oil Demand in 2024

Yesterday, the monthly oil market review was published:

→ OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 2.25 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, representing a 2.2% increase compared to 2023.

→ In 2025, OPEC predicts a demand increase of 1.85 million barrels per day, reaching 106.21 million barrels per day. It is anticipated that the growth in oil consumption in 2025 will be driven by China, the Middle East, and India.

This aligns with Occidental Petroleum's perspective, where they anticipate a global oil shortage starting in 2025, as the pace of global oil demand growth is roughly four times higher than the volumes of new reserves.

However, according to Citi analysts, the price of Brent crude oil in 2025 is expected to be $60 per barrel due to oversupply.

As of today, the price of Brent crude oil is fluctuating in the consolidation zone around $77 per barrel. Market participants are closely monitoring the potential for an increase in the Brent oil price due to geopolitical tensions. For instance, Maersk has reported that escalation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden will lead to disruptions in global logistics.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Recovers While EUR/GBP Dives Below Support

GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 1.2690 resistance. EUR/GBP declined steadily below the 0.8585 and 0.8570 support levels.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2650.
• There is a key contracting triangle forming with support near 1.2690 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8585 pivot level.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8570 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair declined after it failed to clear the 1.2800 resistance. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound even traded below the 1.2715 support against the US Dollar.

Finally, the pair tested the 1.2600 zone and is currently attempting a fresh increase. The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2740. The pair even climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2785 swing high to the 1.2596 low.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2715. It coincides with the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2785 swing high to the 1.2596 low.

The next major resistance is near 1.27640. A close above the 1.2740 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2790. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2840.

On the downside, there is a key support forming near a contracting triangle at 1.2690. If there is a downside break below 1.2690, the pair could accelerate lower. The first major support is near the 1.2640 level.

The next key support is seen near 1.2600, below which the pair could test 1.2550. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2500 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

NASDAQ 100 Reaches Historic High. META Shares May Surpass the Historical High

The American stock index NASDAQ 100 has set a new historical high, surpassing the psychological mark of 17,000 points.

The growth was attributed to:

→ Analysts at Bank of America raising the rating of AAPL stocks, recommending them for BUY. The price of AAPL shares rose by almost 4%.

→ The growth of AMD and NVDA stock prices, as chip manufacturers are significant beneficiaries due to the widespread adoption of AI.

→ The earnings season gaining momentum. Market participants anticipate strong results from major technology companies (MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA, and others).

Note the movement of META stock price – the social media giant is close to reclaiming a $1 trillion market capitalisation.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

The Dollar Is Strengthening, Driven by Employment Data

Yesterday's US labour market data indicated an increase in employment, dampening hopes of an interest rate cut. The Labor Department stated on Thursday that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 16,000 to 187,000, seasonally adjusted, for the week ending January 13, which is the lowest level since September 2022 and below economists' expectations of 207,000. Separate data from the US Department of Commerce showed that single-family housing construction slowed in December after a previous period of growth. The low supply in the secondary market continues to support new construction. Throughout the day, the US will release data on existing home sales, which may increase by 0.8-0.9%, equivalent to around 3.82 million units sold, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, with forecasts suggesting a slight increase from 69.7 points to 70.0 points.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is decreasing after an earlier rise. According to EUR/USD technical analysis, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0906, and a breakthrough could trigger an upward move to 1.0958. On the other hand, the nearest support is visible at 1.0844, and a breakthrough below may lead the pair to 1.0800. The euro's exchange rate has remained nearly unchanged as investors digest the December meeting minutes of the European Central Bank. According to reports on Thursday, ECB policymakers expressed confidence in achieving the inflation target but acknowledged numerous risks, justifying the continuation of a stable policy and high borrowing costs. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged at the meeting and emphasised the absence of upcoming rate hikes. With the focus shifting to the ECB's January policy decision, the market is entering a period of calm.

The previous downward channel is still in place. The price has now retreated from the upper channel boundary and may continue to decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Watch FXOpen's 15 - 19 January Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap with Gary Thomson: UK100 DROPS 1.5%, USD RISES, OPEC’S FORECASTS, MICROSOFT SURPASSES APPLE

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• The UK100 Price Plummeted After the Publication of Inflation Data #FTSE
• The Dollar Continues to Strengthen since the Beginning of the Year #EURUSD
• OPEC Forecasts an Increase in Oil Demand in 2024 #OPEC #XBRUSD #UKBrent
• Microsoft Becomes the Most Expensive Company in the World, Surpassing Apple #AAPL #MSFT

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenuk #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

 

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: The Dollar Is Weakening Against the Euro and Pound

Recent economic data and comments from Federal Reserve representatives have dampened expectations of a rapid interest rate cut. More optimistic than expected consumer sentiment data added to the list of reliable economic data published this week, including retail sales and unemployment benefit claims. The positive indicators eased expectations that the Fed would begin lowering the key rate as early as March and provided confidence that the US economy is not immediately threatened by a recession. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar's value against a basket of six currencies, fell by 0.08% to 103.26, although it rose by 0.8% over the week.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing a modest increase, developing a corrective impulse formed last week. The euro is testing the 1.0900 level for an upward breakout amid the absence of macroeconomic publications. According to EUR/USD technical analysis, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0909, and a breakthrough could trigger an increase to 1.0958. On the other hand, the nearest support is at 1.0844, and a break below could lead the pair to 1.0800.

Investors will focus on the monthly report from the German Bundesbank during the day, which may influence market expectations regarding the pace of possible ECB interest rate cuts this year. Additionally, on Wednesday, January business activity statistics in the services sector will be presented in the EU and the US. Predictions suggest that the Eurozone services sector index from S&P Global will strengthen from 48.8 to 49.0, while in the US, it will decrease from 51.4 to 51.0. On Thursday, a meeting of the European regulator will take place, and officials may provide comments that will affect the movement of the single currency quotes, although no changes in the direction of the agency's monetary policy are expected: the interest rate is expected to remain at 4.50%, and the deposit rate at 4.00%.

The price broke the upper boundary of the descending channel and may continue to rise.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Microsoft Is at All-Time High Despite Boardroom Email Hack Claim

Microsoft Corporation is one of the longer established publicly listed high-technology companies within the North American 'big tech' industry.

Its foundation pre-dates the wave of internet giants that rose to prominence at the beginning of this millennium by such a margin that it was in existence and already a major corporation before many of the leaders of other tech firms around the world were actually born.

Microsoft's corporate standing differs from many of its peers in many other ways, too. Not only is it based in Seattle, its original homeland, as opposed to Silicon Valley in the next state westward, but it also manufactures computer hardware components as well as software, marking it out as a comprehensive provider of all aspects of the computer science industry. It could be fair to consider that Microsoft was viewed as a potential direct rival for Apple when Apple was founded just one year later, in 1976.

Since then, the two have been at the very top of their commercial game. However, Microsoft has recently been going from strength to strength, which is a remarkable feat considering its wranglings with anti-competition authorities in the United Kingdom and the United States, two of its vital markets.

This week, however, a further matter of interest has surfaced, adding to the ongoing market value speculation surrounding the viability of Microsoft's proposals to acquire electronic entertainment company Activision Blizzard for almost $69 billion, which has been an ongoing matter since the beginning of 2022.

As Microsoft's stock made an overall upward movement during the course of last year in the face of anti-competition authorities putting the brakes on the progress of the company's plans to acquire Activision Blizzard, the new year arrived with the deal still not complete and the American authorities sticking firmly to their premise that such an acquisition would create the largest corporate entity in the video game industry worldwide, potentially lessening the ability for other globally established companies such as Sony to compete in the market with its Playstation range of video games.

This matter rumbled on within the United States, but the British authorities made their decision to approve the merger later last year.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.