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Dollar close to 1-Month Lows as Trade War Fears increase

The U.S. dollar was trading close to one-month lows on Wednesday when U.S. President Donald Trump warned a trade deal with China won't return till when the 2020 presidential election and vulnerable to step up his trade war with alternative nations.

The U.S. dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was at 97.6 by 03:47 AM ET (08:47 GMT), shortly from the lows of 97.55 reached on Nov. 18.

Trump's statement Tuesday that he had "no deadline" for an agreement with China hurt sentiment as world trade frictions have already hit the economic process, with several economies troubled to search out their footing.

Trump's comments on trade earlier within the week had already spooked investors.

On Monday, he said he would hit Brazil and Argentina with trade tariffs for "massive devaluation of their currencies".

The president then vulnerable duties of up to 100% on French merchandise, from champagne to purses, attributable to a digital services tax that Washington says harms U.S. school firms.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on Tuesday said that whereas staff-level talks are continued with Chinese officers, no high-level conferences are regular.

If there's no deal or substantial progress in talks before Dec. 15, tariffs on remaining Chinese imports, as well as cell phones, laptop computers, and toys, can become, Ross said.

"Expectations for a U.S.-China trade deal are weakening, and dollar/yen has broken its support levels, that the bias is tipped to the draw back," said Takuya Kanda, chief of analysis at Gaitame.com analysis Institute in Edo.

"More tariffs would push dollar/yen lower still."

Market analysts said the dollar might solely weaken well if U.S. economic knowledge showed a pointy declaration and expectations of rate cuts grew sharply. money market futures are informinged to a rate cut of 1 quarter purpose by next July.

The dollar stood at 108.48 versus the yen, its lowest since November. 21, whereas the dollar was at 0.9856 against nation monetary unit, grade not seen since November. 4.

Both the japanese and Swiss currencies tend to be sought-after by investors as safe-haven assets throughout times of heightened political tensions or market uncertainty.

The monetary unit was very little modified close to one-and-a-half week highs against the dollar at one.1085.

The biggest beneficiary of the slide within the dollar was British pound, that climbed 0.5% to a contemporary six-month high of 1.3059.

Sterling has been boosted by U.K. opinion polls showing that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s conservative party is probably going to win Dec. 12 elections paving the way for Great Britain to depart the European Union in January. 31.
 
Dollar firm as 'headline ping-pong' revives trade optimism

The greenback and export-oriented currencies found support on Thursday as upbeat trade comments from U.S. President Donald Trump cheered the market, whereas New Zealand's softer-than-expected banking reforms pushed the kiwi to a four-month high.

The flight to safety seen on Wed reversed when Trump said trade talks with China were going "very well," daily when floating the thought that a deal might need to attend till after the 2020 presidential election.

Bloomberg additionally according that the 2 sides are moving nearer to an agreement, citing people familiar with the talks.

That took the shine off the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc, which nursed losses on Thursday.

"Another day, another reversal of what happened the previous day," aforesaid National Australia Bank's head FX contriver, Ray Attrill.

"I thought the markets had stopped enjoying headline ping- stink on trade, however apparently not."

Despite the swing, prevailing caution regarding high-level comments on trade unbroken market moves modestly. The U.S. dollar command nightlong gains against the safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc to sit down at 108.79 yen and 0.9877 francs . it absolutely was steady on the euro at $1.1082 (EUR=).

Against a basket of currencies (DXY) the dollar held at 97.588.

The British pound crossed the $1.31 mark for the primary time since might nightlong as expectations that Prime Minister Boris Johnson would win a majority at next week's election firmed.

Sterling last listed at $1.3108. The dollar slipped 0.2% to $0.6838 when softer-than-expected retail sales information.

The standout was the kiwi, that rose 0.4% to $0.6555, its highest since August, and has placed on over a cent on as business sentiment there has rebounded and expectations for financial loosening have fallen.

The Federal Reserve Bank of recent Zealand upraised bank capital necessities, however not the maximum amount as some investors had feared, and with a protracted interval, reducing expectations that fiscal easing may be required to offset the hike's alteration effects.

Against the Australian, the kiwi has gained over three-dimensional during a month to face at a four-month high of NZ$1.0457 per A$1 (AUDNZD=).

The long, seven-year phase-in and modest scale of hiked bank capital rules were seen as having a softer impact on loaning and growth than expected, reducing the chance of deeper financial easing.

The country's biggest investor, Australia, and New Seeland Banking cluster, cut its expectations for cuts to the country's Official money Rate (OCR) next year from 2 reductions to 1 when the capital necessities were declared.

"A softening within the proposals, combined with an additional positive domestic outlook...mean we tend to are ever-changing our OCR decision to just one additional 25bp OCR cut, in might next year, taking the OCR to zero.75%," ANZ analysts said in an emailed note.

The dollar hit a one-month high of $1.3203 per buck when the country's financial institution command interest rates steady and said there have been signs the world economy was stabilizing.
 
Technical Overview of GBP/USD and USD/JPY Currency Pair

GBP USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3155.
  • Flat in a 1.3153/1.3161 range, but decent interest once Asia fully opened
  • EUR/GBP saw modest volumes with a very tight 0.8438/0.8341 range
  • Conservative election victory expectations attracted fresh demand this week
  • Initial significant resistance at 1.3168/90, 50% 2018/19 fall and May high
  • 1.3168 capped in NY, but is under pressure - strong resistance into 1.3200
  • Close above 1.3200 would be a strong positive into the election next week
  • Sustained 1.3200 break would open the door to the 1.3380 2019 high in March
  • Close below the prior 1.3000 range high needed to undermine topside bias
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3120 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3105. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3166 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3181.

USD JPY

USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 108.75.

USD/JPY's CTA positioning and notes that it's mainly close to neutral and sidelined around current levels.
"CTAs having held back on going long in the USD/JPY market (buying USD and selling yen) during the recent risk-on phase, they have managed to avoid simultaneous stock selling and yen buying.

CTAs' USD/JPY positions are close to neutral at present, and they are not currently moving either to buy or to sell.

"With the latent risk of yen appreciation being suppressed, if fundamentals-oriented investors begin tentatively dip-buying below 23,000, this downward move by the Nikkei 225 could be brought to a close relatively soon.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 108.66 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.58. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.92, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.00.

Important Economic Events of the day
  • JPY: Household Spending y/y
  • USD: Nonfarm Payrolls
  • USD: Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
  • CAD: Employment Change
For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!
 
U.S. dollar Unchanged previous Job Report


The U.S. dollar was unchanged on Fri in Asia as traders anticipated the discharge of the newest U.S. job report, which is due at 8:30 AM ET (13:30 GMT).

The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of alternative currencies was unchanged at ninety seven.380 by 1:30 AM ET (05:30 GMT).

Analysts half-track by investment.com expects the duty report back to show the economy an additional 186,000 jobs in Nov, up from 128,000 jobs in October and 155,00 jobs in Nov 2018. The percentage is projected to carry steady at 3.6%, unchanged from October and down slightly from December 2018.

Traders additionally unbroken an eye fixed out for the newest development on the Sino-U.S. trade front as U.S. President Donald Trump same "something may happen" on whether or not Washington can impose new tariffs on Chinese merchandise beginning Dec. 15.

Trump same on Thursday that negotiations with China are going "very well," only 1 day when he same an agreement to finish the trade dispute might need to be delayed till after the yankee presidential election in Nov 2020.

The USD/CNY combine listed 0.1% lower to 7.0417.

The EUR/USD combine was very little modified at 1.1102 as knowledge on Thursday showed that German mill orders unexpectedly declined in October.

The GBP/USD combine was additionally close to flat at 1.3156. Reports on instructed that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson may win a majority at next week's election, paving the way for Britain to go away the European Union in January. 31.

The USD/JPY combine slipped 0.1% to 108.68.

Meanwhile, the AUD/USD combine and therefore the NZD/USD pair each gained 0.2%.
 
Pound Rally Passes euro Milestone as Polls Back Conservatives


The pound strong Mon to a contemporary two-and-a-half year high against the euro, as weekend opinion polls continuing to purpose to a win for the ruling Conservatives during this week’s election.

The currency additionally rose against the dollar when polls in Britain’s Sunday newspapers all swing Boris Johnson’s party within the lead. though the gap between the parties has narrowed throughout the campaign, it's not enough to stay the Conservatives from returning to power on. The weekend surveys spurred buying by European investors, in line with traders.

“The pound is rallying once more when markets well-nigh totally discount a decent Tory majority,” wrote Elsa Lignos, international head of currency strategy at Royal Bank of Canada, in a very analysis note. “Friday can show whether or not that was a decent strategy or not.”

As well as gaining 0.3% to 83.93 pence per euro, it additionally additional the maximum amount as 0.3% against the dollar to $1.3181 Monday. The pound has strong 3-dimensional against the U.S. currency over the past month, as investors grow progressively assured of a win for Johnson within the Dec vote. Still, the price of hedging against a fall within the pound has additionally surged because the election looms, showing lingering caution following the failure of most opinion polls to accurately predict previous votes like the 2016 Brexit vote.

The spot rate for the pound-dollar combine continues to diverge with choices, as two-week risk reversals show raised demand to hedge an sudden outcome from Thursday’s ballot. A Bloomberg survey last month found the pound would fall to $1.27 on a Labour-led coalition outcome, a quite 3-dimensional drop from current levels.

Positioning on the currency additionally remains mixed, with leveraged funds dynamical short positions to rock bottom since could whereas plus managers have turned a lot of bearish on the currency, in line with the newest information from the artifact Futures trading Commission.

“The scope for surprise at this week’s election is sizeable,” wrote Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) strategists together with Alain Durre in a very analysis note. “The share of voters that are still undecided- thus late within the campaign- implies that even alittle swing in this slice of the citizens would cause a decorated parliament.”
 
U.S. Dollar, euro close to Flat as Traders look central bank conferences

The U.S. greenback and therefore the euro was very little modified on Mon in Asia as traders look central bank conferences due later on.

The U.S. greenback Index was very little modified at ninety seven.685 by 11:57 PM ET (03:57 GMT). The FRS is predicted to stay rates steady on Wed on at the conclusion of its policy meeting. The Fed has cut rates 3 times this year to protect the U.S. economy from world retardation.

After the last rate cut, in October, Fed Chair theologiser Powell aforementioned each the economy and policy were in a very "good place" and indicated that policymakers saw no need to chop rates more.

"I assume they're feeling specialized straight away that they’ve determined to place this issue on pause,” aforementioned Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economic expert at blood cell Capital Markets in the big apple.

On the info front, The yank client worth inflation figures are due on before the Fed meeting, that is expected to point out inflation running at a pair of, whereas retail sales numbers on Friday are forecast to point out the growth of 0.4%.

The USD/CNY combine last listed at seven.0329, up 0.01%, once knowledge showed the country’s exports born 1.1% year-on-year in Nov, compared with the expected 1.0% enlargement.

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD combine was conjointly close to flat at one.1055. Christine Lagarde can hold her initial meeting and press conference as European central bank (ECB) president on a weekday.

The ECB isn't expected to create any vital amendment to financial policy. However, traders pay attention to Lagarde’s wordings for her thoughts on the financial policy outlook, the economy, and a future strategy review.

The GBP/USD combine inched up 0.1% to 1.3143 as traders continued to look a U.K. election on which will confirm the course of Brexit.

The USD/JPY combine was unchanged at 108.57.

The AUD/USD combine and therefore the NZD/USD pair each slipped 0.1%.
 
U.S. dollar Unmoved sooner than Fed conferences, Looming Tariff deadline

The U.S. dollar was unmoved on weekday in Asia before central bank conferences and a looming tariff point later in the week.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks a basket of different currencies was unchanged at 97.610 by 12:30 AM ET (04:30 GMT).

On the radiolocation in the week are policy conferences at the U.S. Federal Reserve and also the European financial institution. whereas the 2 central banks aren't expect to announce any vital changes to their policies, traders can pay attention to clues on whether or not additional easing is future next year.

On the Sino-U.S. trade front, investors hoped-for to visualize whether or not Washington can act with a planned Dec. fifteen tariff hike on Chinese product.

Bloomberg according to long that U.S. Agriculture Secretary boy Perdue aforementioned Washington is unlikely to impose additional tariffs on Chinese exports on Dec. 15.

“We have a point bobbing up on the Dec. fifteen for an additional share of tariffs, I don't believe those are enforced and that i assume we have a tendency to might even see some backing away,” Perdue aforementioned, consistent with Bloomberg.

The EUR/USD combine was close to flat at 1.1065, whereas the GBP/USD combine inched up 0.1% to 1.3151.

The AUD/USD combine and also the NZD/USD pair each gained 0.2%.

The USD/JPY combine edged up 0.1% to 108.62.

The USD/CNY combine was very little modified at 7.0382, very little wedged by information nowadays that showed China’s producer indicant was down 1.4% year-on-year, falling for the fifth month in an exceeding row. The drop compared with the 1.5% expected decline and also the 1.6% fall.

Meanwhile, the patron indicant for Nov jumped 4.5% year-on-year, as food costs skyrocketed 19.1% amid a pestilence of African swine fever.
 
Premarket London: Sterling, FTSE Set to Open Higher on Tory Triumph

The pound and U.K. stocks were set to open sharply higher Friday when Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s conservative party scored a decisive win within the U.K. election, breaking a three-year situation over Brexit and banishing the threat of a left-of-center government with an agenda of nationalization and hostility toward abundant of the money sector.

By 2:45 AM ET (0745 GMT), the pound had settled into vary around $1.3422, some 2% up from late Thursday, albeit that was nearly 1c down from an initial 17-month high of $1.3515.

The pound conjointly rose to its highest against the monetary unit since the 2016 vote on exploiting the EU, before retracing slightly to 1.2022, a gain of 1.7%.

With forecasts inform to a Conservative majority of seventy-eight, the manner is currently clear for Johnson to pass his EU Withdrawal Bill, formally taking the U.K. out of the axis when forty-six years of membership. He’ll then have a year to barter a free-trade modify the EU before the selected transition amount ends.

In the meantime, Johnson has secured a pointy rise publically disbursal on everything from the police to hospitals and colleges and renewable energy, a program that, if enforced absolutely, would represent significant financial information.

As such, domestic-themed stocks are set for sturdy gains at the open – with homebuilders, banks, retailers and utilities all possible to be in demand.

There were no restrictive disclosures from FTSE a hundred firms on Friday.
 
Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP/USD Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1128.
  • EUR/USD stalls its strong intraday rally near 1.1200 round-figure mark.
  • Acceptance above 200-DMA support prospects for additional gains.
The EUR/USD pair maintained its strong bid tone through the early European session on Friday, albeit has retreated around 20-25 pips from the 1.1200 handle, or four-month tops.

Extremely overbought conditions on hourly charts seemed to be the only factor that kept a lid on any strong follow-through, rather prompted some profit-taking at higher levels.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1125 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1102. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1199 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1222

GBP USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3162.
  • Trades close to the top of a 1.3162/1.3516 range, after a hectic session
  • EUR/GBP is at the base of a 0.8278/0.8426 with huge flow for Asia
  • Bids at 1.3450 provided a base after initial jump - 1.3450 1BLN strikes
  • Early results support the exit poll prediction of an 86 Boris landslide
  • EU welcomes a strong UK mandate into upcoming trade talks
  • Charts show GBP trending higher, but over stretched short term
  • Stunning Conservative victory will totally change UK politics
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3170 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3061. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3524, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3633.

Important Economic Events of the day
  • EUR: EU Leaders Summit
  • JPY: BoJ Tankan Large Manufacturing Index
  • USD: Retail Sales m/m
  • USD: Retail Inventories m/m
For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!
 
Premarket London: Sterling, FTSE Set to Open Higher on Tory Triumph

The pound and U.K. stocks were set to open sharply higher Friday when Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s conservative party scored a decisive win within the U.K. election, breaking a three-year situation over Brexit and banishing the threat of a left-of-center government with an agenda of nationalization and hostility toward abundant of the money sector.

By 2:45 AM ET (0745 GMT), the pound had settled into vary around $1.3422, some 2% up from late Thursday, albeit that was nearly 1c down from an initial 17-month high of $1.3515.

The pound conjointly rose to its highest against the monetary unit since the 2016 vote on exploiting the EU, before retracing slightly to 1.2022, a gain of 1.7%.

With forecasts inform to a Conservative majority of seventy-eight, the manner is currently clear for Johnson to pass his EU Withdrawal Bill, formally taking the U.K. out of the axis when forty-six years of membership. He’ll then have a year to barter a free-trade modify the EU before the selected transition amount ends.

In the meantime, Johnson has secured a pointy rise publically disbursal on everything from the police to hospitals and colleges and renewable energy, a program that, if enforced absolutely, would represent significant financial information.

As such, domestic-themed stocks are set for sturdy gains at the open – with homebuilders, banks, retailers and utilities all possible to be in demand.

There were no restrictive disclosures from FTSE a hundred firms on Friday.
 
Sterling sparkles once election poll, yuan informed trade deal reports

The pound rose to a three-and-a-half-year high versus the euro and therefore the highest in additional than a year versus the greenback once exit polls recommended a win for the Conservatives, that ought to facilitate make sure the UK's swish exit from the ECU Union.

The Chinese yuan rose in offshore trade and therefore the Japanese yen fell once a supply told Reuters that the united states and China have agreed on some tariff reductions and a delay on tariffs set to travel result on Dec. 15.

The early results recommend the election can relieve nearly four years of uncertainty about once Brexit would happen, that ought to be a subsidiary of the pound.

A fortunate scaling back of trade tension would relieve one major current of air to economic process, which suggests lower demand for the safe-haven yen. Avoiding new tariffs ought to even be a lift to China's deceleration economy, which ought to draw additional investors to the yuan.

"We've already seen a robust reaction within the pound from the exit poll," said Michael McCarthy, chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney.

"We additionally see an increase in available futures in reaction to 2 important items of stories for markets. this could support international growth. The yuan may also go higher, however, it depends on what quantity greenback strength we get."

Against the euro, sterling (EURGBP=D3) rose around 2% to as high as 82.80 pence, the best since July 2016, that is shortly once the Brexit vote that beat the currency.

The pound surged by 2.2% to $1.3474, reaching the best since might 2018.

The pound plunged quite 10% within the immediate aftermath of Britain's vote to depart the ECU Union in June 2016, whereas $2 trillion was wiped off world markets.

The exit poll, that recommended United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson would get a majority of eighty-six - the biggest of any Conservative leader since Margaret Thatcher won within the 1980s - ought to empower him to deliver Brexit on January. 31.

Official results are declared over the following seven hours.

Even if Brexit is completed in January. 31, there's still some uncertainty as a result of the United Kingdom will then enter a transition amount throughout that it'll negociate a brand new relationship with the remaining twenty-seven EU states.

In the offshore market, the Chinese yuan rose 0.33% to 6.9273 per greenback, once billowing on Thursday to the best since August. one because of relief a few resolutions to trade friction.

As a part of the trade deal, China has additionally united to get $50 billion of U.S. agricultural product next year, sources at home with the talks told Reuters.

The yuan rallied and therefore the yen fell late on Thursday once Bloomberg News rumored that U.S. President Donald Trump signed off on a trade manage China that may delay a brand new spherical of tariffs scheduled for Dec. 15.

A trade dispute between USA and China over Chinese trading practices that Washington says are unfair has dragged on for pretty much 2 years, creating the stand of the most important risk to the worldwide economy.

Against the greenback, the yen fell to 109.595, the weakest since Dec. 2.

The greenback index (DXY) against a basket of six major currencies fell 0.35% to 96.736, approaching all-time low since July this year.
 
Technical Overview of EUR/USD and USD/CAD Currency Pair

EUR USD


EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1096.

• EUR/USD is gaining ground on broad-based dollar selling.
• The pair is closing on a crucial trendline hurdle at 1.1140.
• With gold rising amid trade optimism, a breakout looks likely.

The easing of trade tensions is good news for Germany. The 18-month US-China trade war had pushed the Eurozone's manufacturing powerhouse and biggest economy to the brink of recession.

As a result, the dollar could continue to lose ground in Friday's European session – more so, as the equity market buoyancy is expected to continue with Amazon, the e-commerce giant, reporting record holiday season.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1087 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1080. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1107 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1114.

USD CAD


USD traded lower against CAD and closed at 1.3121.

• USD/CAD on track for a test below 1.31 the figure on firm commodity complex.
• Phase-one trade deal between the US and China is in the making, supporting commodity currencies.

Funds are under pressure as the commodity complex catches a bid on the so-called 'phase-one' trade deal that is scheduled to be signed in January between the US and China.

The trade, ownership and technology practices of Chinese companies for the past two decades will not vanish overnight, nor will optimism of US and Canadian executives return with two signatures.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3100 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3087. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3144, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3157.

Important Economic Events of the Day

• JPY: Retail Sales m/m
• USD: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
• USD: Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
• GBP: Nationwide HPI m/m

More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!
 


EURNZD today as we see here, the trend is still bearish, so you can sell it now at resistance area at 1.66872 with potential target up to 1.66261
 
Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP / USD Currency Pair

EUR /USD


EUR traded Higher against USD and closed at 1.1175.


EUR/USD is attempting a convincing break above 1.12 amid broad-based US dollar weakness.

The currency pair is currently trading at 1.1196, representing a 0.20% gain on the day, having hit a high of 1.1210 in Asia.

Dollar's bearish trend continued in Asia and looks to have legs, as gold, a hard currency, is reporting a 3% gain on a month-to-date basis in dollar terms and is expected to put on a good show next year. The trend in the gold market is widely used as an indicator to confirm the bullish/bearish price action in the US dollar.

EUR/USD's bullish case looks stronger with the weekly chart reporting an upside break of the trendline connecting September 2018 and June 2019 highs.


According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1196 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1195. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1200 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1201.

GBP / USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3076

GBP/USD remains on the front foot for the fifth consecutive day to the highest since December 19.

The Brexit party leader Nigel Farage’s former adviser Trixy Sanderson signaled the EU’s preparations for a no-deal departure.

The market lost interest in the greenback as phase-one calls rise but US-China political divide remains.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3075 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3068. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3097, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3104.

Important Economic Events of the Day
  • USD: Pending Home Sales m/m
  • USD: Pending Home Sales y/y
  • USD: Goods Trade Balance

More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!
 
Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP / USD Currency Pair
EUR /USD


EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1193


The market is well placed to retest resistance at 1.1197- 1.1240 – namely the 55-week ma, the 2019-2020 down channel, and the recent high. This guards the 200-week ma at 1.1360 which continues to represent a critical breakpoint medium term.”

“Dips lower are well supported by the 55 and 20-day ma at 1.1095/1.1065 and the 3-month uptrend at 1.1045.”

“Failure at the uptrend would target the 1.0981 29th November low.”

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1167 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1156 The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1205 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1216.

GBP / USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3167

“We look for dips lower to remain well supported by the 55-day ma at 1.2987. The low on the 23rd December was 1.2908 and while above here we will assume an upside bias to retest the December high at 1.3515.”

“The December high at 1.3515 guards the September 2017 high and 38.2% retracement (of the move down from 2014) at 1.3658/68. This guards the more important 1.3918 2007 -2020 downtrend.”

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2841 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2604. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3461, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3607.


Important Economic Events of the Day
  • EUR Retail Sales m/m.
  • EUR Retail Sales y/y.
  • GBP 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction.
  • USD Trade Balance.
More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!
 
Technical Overview of GBP/USD and EUR/USD Currency Pair

GBP USD
GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3017.


  • GBP/USD looks to extend the bounce towards 1.3050 ahead of the UK CPI report, as broad-based US dollar weakness and bullish technical set up underpin the sentiment around the spot.
  • Flat - closed up 0.2%, as expectations of a Jan BoE cut cooled
  • Inflation data on today and retail sales Friday will be key for sterling
  • Despite bounce daily charts are negative, though at the low end of recent ranges
  • Momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head lower and 21 day Bolli bands slip
  • 1.2900, December low then 1.2887 lower 21 day Bolli band are major supporT
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2973 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2954. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3033, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3052.

EUR USA

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1127.

  • EUR/USD barely moved in Asia trading in a 1.1126/31 range
  • Most of the action in regionals as USD moved up on Mnuchin comments\
  • Resistance at 10-day MA at 1.1140 with option selling ahead of 1.1150
  • Large option maturities 1.1100/50 defining the recent range
  • Break above 1.1150 targets 61.8 fibo of 1.1240/1.1085 at 1.1181
  • EZ IP later today, but US-China trade deal likely to be the main event

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1111 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1101. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1141 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1151.

Economic Events of the Day
USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

USD EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change

USD FOMC Member Harker Speech



More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!
 
Technical Overview of EUR/USD and USD/JPY and Currency Pair

EUR USD


EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1094
  • Touch softer - closed up 0.05% after recording a fresh 1.1076 Jan low
  • UK to set out goals for EU trade talks - PM Johnson's spokesman
  • Charts show momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs edging lower - negative setup
  • 1.1080/85, 61.8% of the Nov-Dec bounce and Jan double bottom held on close
  • Sustained 1.1075 breaks a bearish signal, next stop 1.1042 76.4% Nov-Dec rise
  • 1.1113, 38.2% of the January dip and 5 DMA is initial resistance
  • 1.1100 350M, 1.1125 230M, and 1.1140-50 1.5BLN strikes cap
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1082 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1076. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1102 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1108

USD JPY

USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 110.18.

USD/JPY extends losses while taking rounds to 110.00 during early Tuesday. The pair shrugged off the BOJ’s widely anticipated monetary policy decision as risk aversion seems to be in the play.
  • USD/JPY extends the recent losses despite BOJ holding its monetary policy intact while keeping forward guidance on interest rates intact.
  • News of coronavirus outbreak recently triggered risk-off; trade-positive news from the Chinese Commerce Ministry failed to please buyers.
  • Geopolitical plays in the Middle East, trade headlines will welcome the US traders returning from the extended weekend.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 110.13 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.10. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.21 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.24

Economic Events of the Day
  • JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
  • JPY BoJ Press Conference
  • GBP Claimant Count Change
  • EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator
More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!
 
Technical Overview of USD/JPY and AUD/USD Currency Pair
USD JPY
USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 110.42

USD/JPY stalls its bounce near 110.40 regions and meets fresh supply over the last hour, as the risk-off sentiment intensifies amid rising coronavirus risks and knocks-off the US 10-year Treasury yields to a new record low just above the 1.30% level.

• USD/JPY printed a bullish inside day candlestick pattern on Wednesday.

• The pair could find bids and challenge resistance at 110.70-111.00.

• USD/JPY: Bulls and bears jostle below 111.00 amid coronavirus fears

• USD/JPY fails to hold onto the previous day’s recovery gains.

• Traders smell fears in the US President Donald Trump’s measured comments.

• Coronavirus updates keep the risk-tone under pressure; US data will decorate the economic calendar.

• USD/JPY drops back towards 110.00 as US 10-year Treasury yields hit record lows

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 110.18 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.05. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.62, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.75.

AUD USD
AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6543.

AUD/USD extends the bounce above 0.6550 after Australia's Q4 Capex data release. The headline number missed forecasts; however, estimates for 2020/21 bettered expectations. The risk-off tone in the markets could cap the further upside in the spot.

• AUD/USD looks oversold as per the daily chart RSI.

• The 4-hour chart RSI is reporting a bullish divergence.

• The broader trend remains bearish with the pair stuck in a falling channel.

• AUD/USD may witness a corrective bounce as technical charts are signaling seller exhaustion.

The 4-hour chart RSI has charted higher lows, contradicting lower lows on price. That bullish divergence indicates the bearish momentum has ebbed. The inverted hammer seen on the 4-hour chart is also echoing similar sentiments.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6540 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6524. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6590 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6606.

More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!
 


AUDCHF today, the price is still in bearish position, you can sell it when it touch resistance area at 0.632772 with potential target up to 0.62334
 

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