Forex News Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCHF H4 Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.30.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CHF currency pair reflects the exchange rate between the US Dollar (USD) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). Today's focus lies on two significant economic events. For the USD, the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales reports are expected to provide insights into the health of the US economy. A higher-than-forecast Chicago PMI would indicate expansion in business activity, supporting the USD. Meanwhile, robust Pending Home Sales data could strengthen the dollar further by reflecting healthy consumer demand. On the CHF side, the KOF Economic Barometer release is expected to give a forward-looking view of the Swiss economy. A stronger reading than forecast may boost the CHF, though the overall impact is likely to be moderate compared to the USD’s key data releases.


Price Action:
The USDCHF forex pair on the H4 chart remains in a bullish trend, trading within a well-defined ascending channel. Despite the last two bearish candles, the overall momentum stays intact, with the price consolidating near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The USD-CHF pair is currently positioned above the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a continuation of bullish sentiment. Buyers remain in control, but the price is showing signs of testing minor resistance at the upper boundary of the channel.


Key Technical Indicators:
IchiMoku Cloud: The USD CHF price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud, confirming a bullish trend. While the last two candles show minor pullbacks, the bullish momentum remains intact, as the price sustains its position above the cloud, indicating a strong support zone.
Volumes: The volume bars indicate a decrease in buying activity, with the last two candles accompanied by red volume bars. This suggests a slowdown in bullish momentum, warranting caution as the price approaches key resistance levels.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram remains positive, with the MACD line staying above the signal line. However, there are signs of waning momentum, as the histogram shows a slight reduction in bullish pressure. This could indicate potential consolidation before the next upward move.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate Support: 0.90000, aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
Key Resistance: 0.90635, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the upper boundary of the channel.


Conclusion and Considerations:
The USDCHF pair remains in a bullish trend on the H4 chart, supported by the Ichimoku cloud and the ascending channel. However, caution is advised as the last two bearish candles and declining volume indicate a potential consolidation phase. Traders should monitor the upcoming Chicago PMI and KOF Economic Barometer releases, as they could trigger increased volatility and influence the USDC/HF pair's direction. A breakout above 0.90635 would confirm further bullish momentum, while a drop below 0.90000 may signal a short-term reversal.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.30.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

XRPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.31.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The XRP/USD pair is influenced by both cryptocurrency market dynamics and broader financial indicators. Currently, XRP is experiencing a slightly bearish trend influenced by reduced liquidity due to upcoming financial events. The latest news indicates that German banks will be closed in observance of New Year's Eve, leading to low liquidity and irregular volatility in the forex markets. Additionally, upcoming releases from Standard & Poor's and FHFA on January 28, 2025, regarding housing prices are expected to impact the USD positively if the actual figures exceed forecasts. These fundamental factors suggest potential downward pressure on XRPUSD in the short term, as traders navigate through lower liquidity and anticipate key economic data releases.


Price Action
The XRP/USD pair on the H4 timeframe is currently in a slightly bearish trend. Over the past week, the price has been consolidating in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, oscillating between the lower and middle bands. Recent candlestick patterns indicate a series of lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Additionally, the trading volume has been decreasing, suggesting a lack of strong buying interest, which may lead to further downside movement if the bearish trend continues.


Key Technical Indicators
Bollinger Bands: The XRP/USD pair is trading within the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, positioned between the lower band and the middle band. This placement indicates a slightly bearish trend, as the price struggles to break above the middle band. The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands suggests a potential decrease in volatility, which could precede a significant price movement either upwards or downwards.
Volumes: Trading volumes for XRPUSD have been on a downward trend, signaling reduced market participation. Lower volumes often precede trend reversals or continuation, depending on other indicators. In this case, the declining volumes support the current bearish outlook, as diminished buying interest fails to sustain the price above the middle Bollinger Band.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI for XRP USD is currently hovering around 40, below the neutral level of 50. This positioning indicates that the pair is in a slightly bearish territory, with potential for further declines. The RSI trend suggests that selling pressure may continue, although it is not yet in oversold territory, leaving room for additional bearish momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator is reflecting bearish momentum, with readings below 50 and moving towards the oversold region. This suggests that the downward movement may persist, as the oscillator indicates sustained selling pressure. However, traders should remain cautious of potential reversals if the oscillator starts to climb from the oversold levels.


Support and Resistance
Support: The price is currently approaching the 61.8 Fibonacci level, which serves as a strong support zone. This level is expected to provide a significant barrier against further declines, where buying interest may emerge to stabilize the price.
Resistance: On the upside, the 50.0 Fibonacci level acts as an important resistance area. If the price attempts to rise towards this level, selling pressure is likely to increase, preventing further upward movement and potentially causing the price to retreat.


Conclusion and Considerations
The XRP USD pair on the H4 chart is currently exhibiting a slightly bearish trend, supported by the price action within the lower half of the Bollinger Bands and declining trading volumes. Key technical indicators such as RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator reinforce the bearish sentiment, although they do not yet indicate oversold conditions. Traders should monitor the support levels at 0.65 and 0.60 for potential buying opportunities, while resistance at 0.70 and 0.75 may act as barriers to upward movement. Additionally, upcoming economic news, including the closure of German banks and housing price reports from Standard & Poor's and FHFA, could introduce further volatility and influence the USD, thereby impacting the XRP-USD pair. It is advisable to stay cautious and consider these fundamental factors when making trading decisions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XRP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XRPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential


FXGlory
12.31.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.03.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD news analysis today, shows the pair is poised for significant moves with key data releases. On the Euro side, employment data reveals continued stability, with unemployment claims reflecting economic resilience. In contrast, the USD is influenced by the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid reports, which are vital indicators of economic expansion and inflation trends. Positive PMI data could strengthen the USD, exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD. Meanwhile, hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials could amplify USD's bullish momentum, adding to volatility. Traders are bracing for these fundamental drivers, which could set the tone for the EUR/USD fundamental outlook today.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD technical analysis today on its H4 chart indicates a pronounced bearish move, with the price breaking below key support levels. The large bearish candlestick signals strong seller dominance, and the pair is now testing the 1.0260 support zone. A potential retracement toward the 1.0350 level, now turned resistance, is possible before further downward movement. The overall structure suggests bearish momentum prevailing unless a decisive break above the resistance level occurs.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price has decisively broken below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a EURUSD bearish trend continuation. Both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are aligned downward, further reinforcing bearish momentum. The Lagging Span also supports this sentiment, sitting well below the price action and cloud.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram shows increasing negative momentum, with the MACD line diverging further below the signal line. This confirms the bearish momentum and suggests that selling pressure remains strong in the short term.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: Immediate support is found at 1.0260, a critical level that, if breached, could lead to further declines toward 1.0200.
Resistance Levels: Key resistance is located at 1.0350, with the next level of significant resistance at 1.0400, near the Ichimoku cloud base.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD forecast today tell us that it is entrenched in a bearish trend, with technical indicators and price action aligning to support further downside. Upcoming US ISM data could provide additional bearish catalysts if stronger-than-expected, bolstering the USD's position. Conversely, any weaker-than-anticipated data could trigger a short-term corrective rally. Traders should closely monitor the 1.0260 support level for a potential breakdown or reversal signals. Effective risk management, including stop-loss orders near resistance levels, is essential given the heightened volatility around today’s fundamental releases.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.03.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

GOLDEUR Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.06.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis
The GOLDEUR pair, which reflects the price of gold in euros, is influenced by broader macroeconomic developments, such as inflation expectations and central bank policies. Today’s trading is expected to see lower liquidity due to the Italian banks being closed in observance of Epiphany Day, which could result in irregular volatility for the Euro. Meanwhile, the Eurozone CPI release will be critical for gauging inflation trends, with a higher-than-expected reading likely to strengthen the Euro by raising the probability of further European Central Bank tightening. Gold, however, may act as a safe haven, particularly if upcoming Eurozone economic data highlights uncertainties or weaknesses.


Price Action
In the H4 timeframe, GOLDEUR exhibits a corrective pullback after a strong bullish surge. The pair has recently touched the upper Bollinger Band and is now retracing towards the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Several bearish candles have formed, signaling the potential for further downside correction. If the price sustains below the 23.6% Fib level, it could continue its decline towards the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels, aligning with critical support zones. However, should the price regain upward momentum, a re-test of the recent highs near the upper Bollinger Band is possible.


Key Technical Indicators
Bollinger Bands: The bands have widened significantly, indicating recent high volatility. The price has retreated from the upper band and is approaching the middle band, which acts as a dynamic support level. A break below this level could signal further bearish momentum.
Volume: Volume has decreased slightly during the correction phase, indicating weaker bullish conviction and the possibility of continued downward movement.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 59.48, reflecting moderate bullish momentum. However, it is moving away from the overbought zone, suggesting potential room for further correction.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region (10.98), hinting at possible bearish exhaustion. This could indicate an imminent reversal or consolidation before further price action develops.


Support and Resistance Levels
Support: Immediate support is located at 2,571, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci level and recent price retracement.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 2,583, coinciding with the recent high and the upper Bollinger Band.


Conclusion and Consideration
GOLDEUR currently shows signs of a technical correction within its broader bullish trend. While the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator suggest that the correction could soon exhaust, traders should monitor the key Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band dynamics for clearer signals. The 23.6% Fibonacci level will serve as a critical pivot; a sustained break below it could open the path to deeper retracement levels. Conversely, a rebound could re-establish bullish momentum. The upcoming Eurozone CPI data will likely have a significant impact on GOLDEUR volatility, and lower liquidity due to the Italian holiday might exacerbate price swings.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GOLD/EUR is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GOLDEUR. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.06.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

ETHUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.07.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The ETH/USD pair is currently under the influence of a potential "Alcoin season," indicating a surge in interest and investment within the alternative cryptocurrency market. Today's key economic indicators for the USD, including the ISM Services PMI expected to rise to 53.5 from 52.1 and JOLTS Job Openings slightly decreasing to 7.73M from 7.74M, are scheduled for release at 3:00 PM. A stronger-than-expected ISM Services PMI could bolster the USD, potentially exerting downward pressure on ETH/USD. Conversely, stable JOLTS figures are likely to have a neutral impact. Additionally, the increasing interest in alternative coins suggests a bullish sentiment that may support ETH/USD's upward trajectory.


Price Action:
On the H4 timeframe, ETH/USD has embarked on a bullish wave, striving to breach the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. The price action reflects a strong upward momentum, with ETH/USD maintaining its stance above key support levels at 3605.70, 3557.5, and 3486.00. This bullish movement suggests sustained buying interest and the potential for further price appreciation. The current attempt to surpass the Fibonacci level is a critical juncture that could either confirm the continuation of the bullish trend or lead to a consolidation phase if the resistance proves too strong.


Key Technical Indicators:
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is displaying a positive divergence, with the MACD line positioned above the signal line. The increasing histogram indicates growing bullish momentum, supporting the current upward trend in ETH/USD.
Ichimoku Cloud: ETH/USD is trading above the Ichimoku Cloud, which is a strong bullish signal. The cloud's configuration provides robust support for the ongoing upward movement, suggesting that the bullish trend is well-supported by this indicator.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: Immediate Support: 3605.70 – This level aligns with recent price consolidation and serves as the first line of defense against potential downward movements. Secondary Supports: 3557.5 and 3486.00 – These additional support levels provide strong floors that can absorb further declines, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
Resistance Levels: Primary Resistance: 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement Level – This is the key barrier that ETH/USD is attempting to overcome. A successful breach could lead to significant upward movement. Additional Resistance Levels: Previous highs and psychological price points should be monitored for potential resistance zones that may challenge the bullish momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The ETH/USD pair on the H4 chart exhibits robust bullish momentum, underpinned by key technical indicators such as MACD and the Ichimoku Cloud. The current price action, striving to break above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, indicates a strong potential for continued upward movement. Supported by solid support levels at 3605.70, 3557.5, and 3486.00, the bullish trend appears well-supported. However, traders should remain vigilant of the critical resistance at the Fibonacci level and the impact of upcoming USD economic data releases. A successful breakout could present lucrative trading opportunities, while any failure to breach resistance may lead to a retracement towards the established supports.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for ETH/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on ETHUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.07.2024

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[FXGlory Ltd]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.08.2025




Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD news analysis today includes upcoming U.S. labor data such as ADP employment changes and initial jobless claims, which could indicate the health of the U.S. labor market and influence Federal Reserve policy. Strong employment data will likely bolster the dollar, further adding to the EUR/USD bearish outlook. On the Eurozone side, attention turns to German industrial orders and retail sales data. Weak results from these indicators may indicate softening economic activity in the Eurozone, adding to bearish sentiment on the Euro.


Price Action:
the EUR/USD technical analysis today on its H4 candle chart shows mixed sentiment, with the price hovering near a significant support level at 1.0315. The market attempted an upward move but was rejected at the 1.0340 resistance level, forming bearish candlesticks. Sellers appear to have regained control, driving the price back below the key Ichimoku Cloud.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price has broken below the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling bearish momentum. The lagging span further supports a EURUSD bearish bias, and the resistance offered by the Kumo suggests that upward attempts will face strong selling pressure.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram is negative, confirming bearish momentum. This aligns with the pair’s price action below the Ichimoku Cloud, further supporting a bearish outlook.
RSI (14): The RSI is at 45.63, indicating neutral to slightly bearish momentum. The value is well below the overbought zone, suggesting room for further downward movement.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: 1.0315 (key horizontal support), followed by 1.0280 (next potential downside target).
Resistance Levels: 1.0340 (near-term resistance), with further resistance at 1.0375 (a prior high).


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD forecast today highlights bearish momentum supported by the pair’s technical indicators and its fundamental headwinds. If the price sustains below the 1.0340 resistance level, it may test the 1.0315 support and potentially move toward 1.0280. Traders should monitor U.S. labor data closely, as stronger-than-expected results could accelerate the pair's bearish trajectory. The Ichimoku Cloud and MACD both indicate bearish trends, suggesting that short positions may be favorable with appropriate risk management. However, a surprise improvement in Eurozone data could provide temporary relief to the pair.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.08.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

AUDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.09.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD currency pair reflects the exchange rate between the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the US Dollar (USD). Today, the US Dollar might experience heightened volatility due to multiple scheduled Federal Reserve speeches. With FOMC members including Michelle Bowman and Patrick Harker discussing monetary policy and economic outlook, traders will look for any hawkish tones that could signal future interest rate adjustments. Simultaneously, the Australian Dollar's movements will be influenced by recent data on trade balance and retail sales, which serve as key indicators of consumer spending and export performance. Strong retail sales or trade surpluses tend to boost the AUD as they reflect economic resilience.


Price Action:
The AUD/USD pair in the H4 timeframe is showing signs of bearish momentum, with 6 out of the last 10 candles being bearish. However, the last two candles have been bullish, suggesting a potential short-term correction. The price is moving within the 61.8% and 100% Fibonacci retracement levels, signaling a zone of support at 0.6193 and resistance at 0.6255. Additionally, the price remains in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, attempting to breach the middle band after bouncing from the lower band. The overall bias remains bearish unless the price closes above the middle Bollinger Band.


Key Technical Indicators Analysis:
Bollinger Bands: The AUD-USD price is trading in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, signaling bearish momentum. After touching the lower band, the price has started correcting upward, heading toward the middle band. However, it remains below this level, indicating continued downward pressure unless a breakout occurs.
Volumes: Volumes have remained moderate, with no significant spikes indicating strong bullish or bearish conviction. This suggests that the recent price movement may be part of a consolidation phase or a weak corrective rebound rather than a trend reversal.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 45.86, slightly below the neutral 50 mark, which reflects weak bearish momentum. It is far from overbought or oversold levels, leaving room for further price movement in either direction.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator is currently at 40.31 (K line) and 29.88 (D line), indicating a near-oversold condition. This hints at a potential short-term upward correction, though the bearish trend remains dominant overall.


Support and Resistance:
Support: 0.6193 aligns with the 100% Fibonacci retracement level and a recent price rejection area, serving as a key support for the current bearish momentum. 0.6145 is a historical support level below recent lows, which could act as the next downside target if bearish pressure persists.
Resistance: 0.6255 coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and has been a key resistance during the current price correction phase. 0.6310 is the middle Bollinger Band and a potential pivot point for a shift in trend, marking a critical area for bullish attempts.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD/USD pair on the H4 chart shows an ongoing bearish trend, with recent bullish candles signaling a possible short-term correction. Traders should watch for a decisive move above the middle Bollinger Band or a breakdown below 0.6193 for further confirmation of direction. Key technical indicators like RSI and Stochastic suggest potential upward correction, but bearish momentum remains the broader trend. Fundamental drivers, including upcoming FOMC speeches and Australian retail sales figures, could add volatility to the AUD USD pair. A hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve would likely strengthen the USD, while robust Australian trade data could lend support to the AUD.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.09.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USD/CAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.10.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CAD news analysis today remains at the forefront of traders' focus due to upcoming key economic releases for both the US and Canada. For the USD, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), unemployment rate, and labor cost index data are expected to bring heightened volatility. Strong labor market data could reinforce expectations of further tightening by the Federal Reserve, supporting the US Dollar. On the Canadian side, upcoming employment numbers will serve as a barometer of the country's economic resilience. With Canada’s heavy reliance on commodities, stable or improving oil prices might further bolster the Canadian Dollar. However, the market sentiment of this pair, commonly known as the “Loonie,” will depend on the interplay of these fundamental drivers and their divergence.


Price Action:
The USD/CAD H4 chart indicates consolidation within the pair’s moderately bullish trend. USDCAD’s price has rebounded from recent support levels but faces resistance near the upper boundary of the current range. The Loonie’s price action demonstrates narrow candlesticks, signifying indecision among traders. A break above the resistance level at 1.4430 could signal further upward movement, while a failure could see the pair retesting lower support at 1.4350.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price is hugging the middle band, indicating neutral momentum. A breakout above the upper band would confirm bullish continuation, while a drop below the lower band could suggest bearish sentiment.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic is hovering around the overbought region near 77, suggesting potential exhaustion in the pair’s bullish bias. A downward cross may signal a short-term correction.
Volume: Volume levels remain subdued, suggesting a lack of strong conviction among traders at the current price range. A spike in volume could validate a directional breakout.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: 1.4350 (key psychological support) and 1.4280 (lower Bollinger Band).
Resistance Levels: 1.4430 (key short-term resistance) and 1.4500 (higher target in case of a breakout).


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/CAD analysis today on its H4 candle chart is in a phase of consolidation with potential for a breakout. Fundamental releases, including the NFP and Canadian employment data, are likely to set the tone for the pair's next major price movement. Technical indicators suggest cautious optimism for bulls but highlight the risk of a pullback from overbought conditions. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels alongside volume for breakout confirmation. Employing tight stop-losses is recommended due to the volatility expected around the upcoming economic data.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.10.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

GOLD/USD (XAU/USD) Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.13.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Gold prices (XAU/USD) reflect mixed sentiment as traders prepare for the release of the US Monthly Treasury Statement. A higher-than-expected surplus could strengthen the US Dollar, pressuring Gold lower, while a deficit may boost Gold as a safe-haven asset. Broader market drivers, including concerns about inflation and central bank monetary policy, continue to influence Gold's bullish momentum. The inverse correlation between the USD and Gold remains critical to monitor as today's news unfolds.


Price Action:
Gold price is moving in a well-defined bullish trend within an ascending channel on the H4 time frame. The price is currently testing the upper region of the Bollinger Bands, indicating strong buyer momentum. While a slight pullback is visible, the price remains comfortably above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, with bulls eyeing a potential breakout near the 0% Fibonacci level for continued upward movement.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: Gold’s price remains in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, touching the upper line, which signals strong bullish momentum. The bands are slightly widening, suggesting increased volatility, while the recent pullback offers potential for buyers to re-enter.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 66.04, hovering near overbought levels but not yet signaling an overextension. The indicator confirms bullish strength, but traders should be cautious of potential consolidation or minor corrections.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator is near overbought territory at 70.62, which suggests the bullish move could slow down temporarily. Any crossover in this region might indicate short-term pullbacks or consolidation before a continuation.
Volume: Volume levels remain steady, aligning with the ongoing upward trend. Traders should watch for any divergence between price and volume, which could signal weakening momentum.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The first support level lies at 2666.20, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and holds as a critical bullish barrier. Below this, 2648.52 provides stronger support within the ascending channel, coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Resistance: Resistance is situated at 2687.78, near the current high and the 0% Fibonacci level, acting as a short-term ceiling for buyers. A breakout above this could drive prices toward the channel’s upper boundary near 2709.62, opening the door for further gains.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Gold USD (XAU/USD) on the H4 chart remains in a strong bullish structure, supported by the ascending channel and key Fibonacci levels. While technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, the price action supports the possibility of further upside, especially if buyers manage to push past the immediate resistance. Traders should keep a close eye on today’s US Treasury Statement, as it could introduce significant volatility. Caution is advised if the price breaks below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, which could signal a bearish correction.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GOLD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GOLDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.13.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.14.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/JPY currency pair is being influenced by contrasting economic conditions today. On the Japanese side, economic data highlights a mixed scenario, with reports from the Bank of Japan indicating potential optimism, as the Eco Watchers Index reflects moderate consumer sentiment improvements. However, attention remains focused on whether the BOJ will maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy. For the USD, key economic data, including the Core PPI and comments from a Federal Reserve official, could steer the dollar's strength. With both currencies impacted by varied data, traders should expect choppy price movements as the market digests the economic updates.


Price Action:
In the H4 timeframe, USDJPY is trading within a tight range, showing slight consolidation near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 157.50. The price recently moved upward, with five consecutive bullish candles indicating modest buying momentum. Despite this, the USD JPY pair lacks strong directional bias, suggesting traders are awaiting further catalysts to confirm the next trend direction. The movement between the Fibonacci level and the middle Bollinger Band signifies a phase of indecision in the market.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The USDJPY price has recently moved from the lower Bollinger Band toward the middle band, supported by five consecutive bullish candles. However, the price has yet to establish a sharp bearish or bullish trend. The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands indicates a period of low volatility, which often precedes significant price movement.
Volume: The volume indicator shows declining activity, reinforcing the market's indecision phase. A breakout from current levels, accompanied by a volume increase, will be critical to confirm directional movement.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram displays decreasing momentum, with the MACD line hovering just below the signal line. This suggests a weakening bullish trend and the potential for a bearish crossover if momentum does not improve.
RVI (Relative Vigor Index): The RVI shows a mildly bearish reading, with the indicator lines sloping downward. This signals caution as the bears might gain strength, especially if the USD-JPY pair fails to sustain support at current levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 156.30, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and serves as a critical level for maintaining bullish sentiment. A break below this level may lead the USD JPY price toward the 155.70 support, corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement and providing a stronger downside buffer.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 157.60, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and recent highs. A breakout above this level could open the door for further bullish momentum toward 158.20, aligning with the upper Bollinger Band.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/JPY pair on the H4 chart indicates consolidation near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, with bullish momentum slowing as indicated by the MACD and volume metrics. Traders should watch for a breakout above 157.60 or a breakdown below 156.30 to confirm the next directional bias. The upcoming economic releases for both USD and JPY could serve as catalysts for these movements.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.14.2025