Forex News Daily Analysis By FXGlory

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.13.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The EURUSD currency pair may see increased volatility today due to Eurozone data (Unemployment, Industrial Production) and a panel discussion featuring Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, which could bolster or weigh on the EUR. Meanwhile, the USD faces multiple releases (Core PPI, PPI, Jobless Claims, Natural Gas Storage, and a 30-year Treasury Auction), offering insights into inflation and labor conditions. These events collectively shape the near-term outlook for EURUSD H4, highlighting the importance of both fundamental chart daily analysis and price action for traders.


Price Action
EURUSD has been in a clear bullish trend since early March, with higher highs and higher lows supported by an ascending trendline. Despite minor consolidation in recent candles, the overall momentum remains positive. Pullbacks toward the trendline may present buying opportunities, as long as price action holds above key support levels.


Key Technical Indicators
Moving Averages (MA 9 and MA 17): The 9-period short MA has crossed above the 17-period long MA, confirming bullish momentum. The long MA sits below recent candles, and the short MA is close to price action, suggesting ongoing upside strength.
Stochastic Indicator: The Stochastic is near overbought territory, hinting at a possible short-term pullback. If it crosses below mid-levels, a deeper correction could emerge, but the broader trend remains bullish as long as it stays above 50.
Volume: Volume has aligned with the recent upward movement, indicating strong buying interest. Slight dips during consolidations are normal, but overall volume supports the bullish trend, especially on rallies.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.0980, which aligns with the ascending trendline.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.1060, which coincides with a recent swing high.


Conclusion and Consideration
The EURUSD H4 chart shows persistent bullish momentum, underpinned by favorable fundamentals and positive technical indicators. While short-term pullbacks may occur—especially if the Stochastic continues to retreat—price action remains constructive above the rising trendline. Traders should keep an eye on today’s Eurozone and US releases for potential market-moving surprises, particularly regarding inflation and labor-market data.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.13.2025

ETHUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.14.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Ethereum (ETHUSD) remains a major player in the cryptocurrency market, widely used for decentralized applications and smart contracts. Today, ETH/USD's price action will be significantly influenced by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports from the U.S. These economic indicators can impact the strength of the U.S. dollar (USD), which historically shares an inverse correlation with Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. If consumer confidence is stronger than expected, it may lead to USD strength, applying bearish pressure on ETHUSD. Conversely, weak consumer sentiment and inflation concerns could support Ethereum’s price, as traders seek alternatives to fiat currencies. With ongoing regulatory discussions in the U.S. and potential institutional adoption of Ethereum-based applications, ETHUSD traders should monitor both macroeconomic data and blockchain-related developments.


Price Action:
The ETHUSD H4 chart reveals a clear bearish trend within a descending channel, with price action consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. The cryptocurrency is struggling to gain bullish momentum, facing resistance at key levels while respecting the downward-sloping trendline. Despite temporary consolidation, Ethereum remains below both short- and long-term moving averages, reinforcing the prevailing bearish sentiment. If ETHUSD fails to break above resistance levels, further downside pressure may lead to another leg lower toward the next support zone. However, a breakout above the descending channel could signal a potential trend reversal.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA): The price remains below the 9-period short MA (blue) and the 17-period long MA (orange), confirming a strong bearish momentum. The downward crossover of the shorter MA below the longer MA suggests continued selling pressure, making bullish recoveries less likely unless a decisive break above the moving averages occurs.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic (5,3,3) is currently at 30.66, indicating that ETHUSD is approaching oversold territory but has not yet fully bottomed out. If the stochastic moves below 20, a short-term bounce may occur; however, sustained bearish momentum suggests further weakness unless a reversal signal emerges.
Volume: The volume bars show increased selling pressure, especially during major downward price movements. There has been no significant spike in buying volume, meaning the bears remain in control. If volume increases on bullish candles, it may indicate a potential accumulation phase before a breakout.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest support level is $1,735, which aligns with previous lows and a key psychological barrier. A break below this level could lead to further declines.
Resistance: The first major resistance level is at $1,955, near the upper boundary of the descending channel. A breakout above this level could invalidate the bearish trend and shift momentum towards the bulls.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The ETHUSD H4 analysis confirms a strong bearish trend, with price action respecting a downward channel and key indicators pointing toward continued weakness. The moving averages, stochastic, and volume all support the bearish outlook unless a major resistance breakout occurs. Traders should monitor today’s U.S. economic data, as stronger-than-expected results may push the USD higher, further pressuring ETHUSD. A potential break above $1,955 could signal a trend shift, but failure to hold support at $1,735 may trigger further declines. Given the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, traders should apply proper risk management strategies and remain aware of global economic and regulatory developments.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for ETH/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on ETHUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.14.2025

NZDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.18.2025




Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The NZD/USD currency pair represents the exchange rate between the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the US Dollar (USD). Today, NZD may experience volatility due to the upcoming Global Dairy Trade (GDT) data release, a significant indicator of New Zealand’s economic health, as higher dairy product prices typically strengthen the NZD. The US Dollar could also see significant movement today with the release of key economic data, including Residential Building Permits, Housing Starts, Import Prices, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Industrial Production. Positive outcomes in these indicators usually support the USD, adding bearish pressure on the NZDUSD pair.


Price Action
The NZD-USD pair analysis on the H4 timeframe demonstrates a strong bullish breakout above the previous resistance zone, now converted into support. Currently, the price has reached the Fibonacci expansion level of 100.0, indicating a high probability of a corrective pullback. Initially, the price is expected to retrace toward the ascending support trendline, followed by a potential deeper correction toward the horizontal support zone.


Key Technical Indicators
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI indicator currently reads 75.73, indicating an overbought scenario. This suggests a probable price correction in the short term to ease the overbought condition.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram remains bullish, although diminishing momentum indicates potential weakening buying pressure. Traders should be alert for a bearish crossover that could signal a reversal or pullback.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator shows a strongly overbought condition at levels 92.19 and 94.34, emphasizing the likelihood of an imminent short-term correction.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support is located at the ascending trendline near 0.5770, followed by a key horizontal support zone around 0.5730-0.5725.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at the recent peak near 0.5822, coinciding with the Fibonacci Expansion 100.0 level. Further resistance can be observed at the psychological mark of 0.5850.


Conclusion and Consideration
The NZD/USD pair forecast on the H4 chart suggests continued bullish momentum, supported by current price action and technical indicators. However, the overbought conditions indicated by RSI and Stochastic suggest the pair is likely to see a corrective move soon. Traders should monitor upcoming economic news closely, especially GDT and US economic indicators, which could significantly impact the NZD-USD exchange rate.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.18.2025

USDJPY Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.19.2025




Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The USDJPY currency pair remains sensitive today with important economic indicators scheduled. For JPY, upcoming releases include Japan's Machine Orders, Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, and Industrial Production, all crucial leading indicators of economic activity and currency strength. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy outlook and recent interest rate statements also continue to influence JPY. Conversely, for the USD, traders will closely watch the EIA Crude Oil Inventories, a key measure influencing the US Dollar through energy market sentiment. These fundamental releases could significantly impact USDJPY volatility.


Price Action
USDJPY price action analysis in the H4 timeframe reveals a confirmed bullish reversal. After breaking the downtrend line, price has entered an ascending channel, currently testing the lower boundary and coinciding with EMA support zones. Recent candles suggest bullish sentiment may continue, targeting the upper boundary of the ascending channel, reinforcing the bullish outlook.


Key Technical Indicators
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned below recent candles, indicating bullish momentum and a positive trend continuation signal for USDJPY.
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Price remains above both the short-term and medium-term EMA lines, highlighting bullish support that can propel USDJPY higher.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 58.58, RSI remains comfortably within neutral territory, suggesting sufficient room for further bullish movement without immediate risk of overbought conditions.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD is above the signal line, maintaining positive values, indicative of sustained bullish momentum, although recent histogram bars are shorter, signaling slightly decreased buying momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic oscillator has recently approached the oversold region and is now curving upwards, providing a bullish crossover that indicates renewed buying interest could lift prices further.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending channel at approximately 148.900, strengthened by EMA convergence.
Resistance: Key resistance is observed near the upper boundary of the ascending channel at approximately 149.900, marking recent price highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The current H4 analysis for USDJPY indicates bullish momentum supported by key technical indicators such as Parabolic SAR, EMA, RSI, MACD, and Stochastic oscillator. The ascending channel supports further bullish sentiment. Traders must remain cautious and monitor upcoming fundamental economic data releases closely, which can significantly affect the USDJPY exchange rate, leading to potential volatility.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.19.2025

EURUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.24.2025




Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD currency pair today will likely be influenced significantly by flash PMI reports for both the Eurozone and the US, released by S&P Global. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, crucial for gauging economic health, could trigger volatility if actual figures diverge from market forecasts. Additionally, traders should watch speeches by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic and Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr, whose statements could provide insights on future monetary policy and impact the USD.


Price Action:
EURUSD price action analysis in the H4 timeframe indicates the price has reached a critical support level and has reacted to it positively. Several pin bar candles have formed near the support, indicating indecision and imminent volatility. A move upward towards the middle Bollinger Band, acting as the first target, followed by the upper Bollinger Band, could be expected as traders anticipate a price correction from this support level.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: EURUSD’s Bollinger Bands show that the price is currently at the lower band, signaling a potential reversal upward. With the middle Bollinger Band serving as an initial target (around 1.0850), a sustained move above this level could lead towards the upper band, near 1.0900.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI indicator stands at approximately 38.66, slightly above the oversold threshold (30). This indicates bearish exhaustion and potential for bullish recovery. However, traders should look for confirmation from additional bullish candles before initiating buy positions.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD histogram bars are below the zero line but decreasing in magnitude, showing waning bearish momentum. The MACD lines are converging, suggesting a bullish crossover might occur soon, further reinforcing a potential bullish reversal.
Williams %R: Currently at -80.86, this indicator reflects oversold conditions, implying that selling pressure may diminish, giving way to an upward price reversal or retracement soon. Traders should look out for an upward movement in the indicator as confirmation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate key support is observed at 1.0813, where recent price actions formed significant pin bar candles indicating buying pressure.
Resistance: Initial resistance is identified at the middle Bollinger Band around 1.0850, followed by a stronger resistance at the upper Bollinger Band, around the 1.0900 psychological level.


Conclusion and Consideration:
EURUSD’s technical outlook on the H4 timeframe suggests a potential bullish reversal, supported by oversold conditions in the RSI and %R, and a reduction in bearish momentum on the MACD. Price action at the support level combined with today's significant PMI reports and speeches by Fed officials could induce volatility. Traders should manage positions carefully, considering the fundamental news events today, which may substantially influence EURUSD price movements.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.24.2025