Forex News Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

Watch FXOpen's February 6 - 10 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• British Pound hits the deck as Western markets raise interest rates
• After a long decline, Tesla leads the charge as EV stocks are back in vogue
• On the state of the US economy
• Natural gas prices are nearing new lows of the year

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

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[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD Could Extend Losses, USD/CAD Breaks Key Support

GBP/USD is showing bearish signs below the 1.2150 resistance. USD/CAD traded below the 1.3400 support, which might now act as a resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2200 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2065 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• USD/CAD is struggling below the 1.3420 and 1.3400 support levels.
• There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support near 1.3380 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound started a fresh decline from well above 1.2400 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair gained bearish momentum after there was a break below the 1.2250 support.

The pair even broke the 1.2150 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The recent swing high was formed near 1.2193 on FXOpen before the price started another decline. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1961 swing low to 1.2193 high.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

It is now trading below 1.2050 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2065 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

An immediate resistance is near the 1.2060 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.2100 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 1.2200 barrier in the near term.

If not, the pair could continue to move down and might even break the 1.2040 support. The next major support is near 1.2000 or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1961 swing low to 1.2193 high.

If there is a downside break, GBP/USD might test the 1.1960 support. The next major support sits at 1.1850, where the bulls might take a stand.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

British Pound and Euro head for 1 month low against US Dollar

The once-lacking volatility among major currencies is back again, and this time it is the remarkably steady US Dollar which is creating a gulf between itself and some of its peers on the other side of the Atlantic.

This morning, the US Dollar rose in value against the Euro and British Pound so significantly that it plunged the Euro and British Pound to sudden lows, with the Euro hitting its lowest value against the US Dollar in over a month, and the British Pound hitting its second lowest point in over a month against the greenback.

The sudden upsurge of the US Dollar against these two majors is quite fascinating, and demonstrates the US Dollar's continued strength despite the precarious economic and geopolitical circumstances that surround the United States.

This morning, the British Pound headed down to 1.20 against the US Dollar, and the Euro to 1.07.

The United States has been faced with similar economic challenges to those faced by Europe over the past two years, and in some cases has had greater difficulties such as higher inflation this time last year, before it subsided in November 2022, and even more stringent lockdowns and involvement in geopolitical instability than some parts of Europe.

Despite this, the US Dollar has held up extremely well, and now that the inflation level in the United States is back to 6.5% and has been for some momnths compared to double figures in the United Kingdom and Europe ranging from 10% in the western European nations to over 25% in some of the Baltic states which are European Union members, things continue to improve for the Dollar.

It may appear that the lower US inflation figure compared to that of Europe and that of the US a few months ago is a good thing, but this has caused higher costs for large corporations in the United States who have to continue to pay more for supplier contracts or to operate their subsidiaries in Europe, leading to lower revenue figures for many.

The US involvement in the ongoing Ukraine war is also a huge cost, and potentially destabilizing factor, however despite having spent over $100 billion on it, plus pledging to escalate the situation by sending more munitions and last week's revelation by an American investigative journalist that the Nord Stream explosion which occurred in November 2022 was allegedly the work of the US armed forces, the Dollar continues to grow.

Whether its overall stability compared to European and British currency is artificial, or whether the US economy is genuinuely less encumbered than that of mainland Europe or Britain is debatable - however this level of volatility in the light of such unusual times is of great interest within the currency markets.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

FTSE 100 hits 1-year high as 8,000 points is in sight

Another exciting period for the FTSE 100 index is in full swing.

The basket of stocks, which consists of the 100 most prestigious and well capitalized publicly listed companies on London Stock Exchange, is once again heading for the stratosphere.

This morning, the FTSE 100 index is trading at 7,982.99, which represents its highest point in over one year, following a gradual climb which began some four months ago, with only a minor slowing in mid-December which soon gave way to the consistent climb gaining momentum once again.

Over the course of 12 months, the FTSE 100 has increased in value by an 499 points, which is a steady 5.9%, proving that whilst across the Atlantic in New York, the tech stocks listed on NASDAQ are less steady or reliable than the old-school array of mining, pharmaceutical, transport and retail stocks listed on London's FTSE 100.

Old tech appears to be performing better than new tech, if these recent months are anything to gauge it by.

On London's stock exchange, perhaps one of the most ubiquitous sectors is the telecommunications industry, which is well represented within the FTSE 100 index given that Britain is home to some long standing corporate giants, once again alluding to the 'old tech' nature of this particular index. In that regard, Vodafone's stock has risen after Liberty Global has acquired a 4.9% stake, giving a substantial lift to the index.

As the opening bell rang in London, things were on the up and by 9.00am the blue-chip index was at 7,993.23, up 45.63 points (0.57%) putting it within touching distance of the 8,000 mark.

Despite clear signals from economists that inflation is not showing any signs of slowing, and with Britain dealing with a real inflation figure of around 10.5%, the economy is growing and wage inflation appears to be in line with price inflation.

Yes, there are high interest rates, and the economic issues concerned around that would potentially be a weakening of access to private home ownership, therefore denting the overall prosperity of the nation, but London's stock exchange is made up of firms that do not become affected by such overall circumstances.

For example, Coca-Cola HBC (the UK-based bottling firm which packages soft drinks) was in demand, having reported a strong year of organic growth. Retail products and foodstuffs will always be in demand regardless of overall economic circumstances such as high inflation or interest rates, whereas expensive electric trucks manufactured by companies with no provenance and listings on NASDAQ via the SPAC method of bypassing due diligence are not essential items with sales affected if the economic woes are too high.

Hence, NASDAQ has been suffering, especially in the electric vehicle stock and internet stock department, whereas the trad stocks of London are prosperous.

Should the 8,000 point barrier be crossed, this will mark a milestone for the London Stock Exchange's FTSE 100 index, similar to the euphoria surrounding its break through the 7,000 barrier in 2021 during the period of recessions, supply chain woes and ongoing draconian lockdowns hampering the economic situation, with the FTSE 100 being the beacon of light in a very dark tunnel.

Interesting times indeed.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 14th FEB 2023

BTCUSD: The Evening Star Pattern Below $23432

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bullish momentum last week and after touching a high of $22432 started to decline against the US dollar, touching a low of $21450 on 13th Feb.

We have seen a bearish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see the evening star pattern below the $23432 handle which is a bearish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of an uptrend and a shift towards a downtrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday high of 21839 in the Asian trading session and an intraday low of 21683 in the European trading session today.

We can see the formation of a three black crows pattern in the weekly time frame indicating bearish trends.

The Ichimoku price is under the cloud in the 2-hour time frame indicating bearish trends.

Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term a decline in the prices is expected.

The RSI indicator is back under 50 in the 2-hour time frame indicating the bearish nature of the markets.

The relative strength index is at 48.77 indicating a NEUTRAL demand for bitcoin, and the shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving below its 100 hourly simple moving average and below its 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

Some of the major technical indicators are giving a SELL signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 21000 and 20500.

The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility with a mildly bearish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bearish reversal seen below $23432.
• The commodity channel index is indicating a NEUTRAL level.
• The price is now trading just below its pivot levels of $21764.
• The short-term range is mildly bearish.

Bitcoin: Bearish Reversal Seen Below $23432

The price of Bitcoin was unable to cross the $24K mark last week, and we can see a continuous fall in the levels now trading below the $22K handle.

As some of the technical indicators are also giving a neutral stance of the markets, we are expecting that a bullish reversal is possible after touching the $20500 level.

We have also detected the formation of bearish engulfing lines in the 30-minute time frame.

The MACD crosses down its moving average in the 15-minute time frame indicating the bearish nature of the markets.

We can see the formation of a bearish price crossover pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA20 in both the 30-minute and 2-hour time frames.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is mildly bearish, the medium-term outlook has turned bearish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $20027 at which the price crosses the 40-day moving average, and at $20937 at which the price crosses the 18-day moving average stalls.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic support level of 21703 and Fibonacci support level of 21502 after which the path towards 21000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs BTCUSD has increased by 0.57% by 122.76$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 21.364 billion. We can see an increase of 0.42% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

Bitcoin is now facing the extended crypto winter due to which the prices are unable to rise above the $25000 level.

We are now heading towards the $21500 level this week.

The daily RSI is printing at 47.08 which indicates a NEUTRAL demand for bitcoin and the continuation of the bearish phase present in the markets in the short-term range.

We can see the formation of a bearish trend line from $23432 towards the $21576 level.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its support zone located at $20884 which is a 38.2% retracement from a 13-week high.

The weekly outlook is projected at $21000 with a consolidation zone of $20500.

Technical Indicators:

The average directional index (14): It is at 28.57 indicating a SELL.

The ultimate oscillator: It is at 39.72 indicating a SELL.

The rate of price change: It is at -5.67 indicating a SELL.

Bull/bear power (13): It is at -1085.58 indicating a SELL.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Could Extend Losses While USD/CHF Aims Higher

EUR/USD is facing a strong resistance near the 1.0800 zone. USD/CHF is rising and might aim a clear move above the 0.9240 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro started a fresh decline from the 1.0800 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0750 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF started a fresh increase above the 0.9200 resistance zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9240 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

After testing the 1.0650 support zone, the Euro started a steady increase against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair gained pace above the 1.0700 level to move into a bullish zone.

The pair even climbed above the 1.0750 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the bears were active near the 1.0800 resistance. It traded as high as 1.0804 on FXOpen and recently started a downside correction.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

There was a move below the 1.0750 level. There was a clear move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0655 swing low to 1.0804 high.

It is now trading above 1.0700 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.0710 level. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0655 swing low to 1.0804 high.

The next major support is near the 1.0690 level. A downside break below the 1.0690 support could start another decline towards the 1.0650 level.

An immediate resistance is near the 1.0730 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.0750 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0750 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

A clear move above the 1.0750 resistance zone could set the pace for a larger increase towards 1.0800. The next major resistance is near the 1.0850 zone.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Apple stock maintains highs, flying in face of tech drop

The dystopian reality that has plagued the stocks of large technology and internet companies which are listed on North America's most prestigious exchanges is now a few months long.

The overall decline in US tech stock values over a prolonged period compared to the buoyant baskets of 'old fashioned' stocks on the other side of the Atlantic is a clear indication that relative newcomers to a big cap market with little provenance are not necessarily that favorable among investors at the moment.

London's mining, entertainment, food production, telecommunications, construction, travel and retail stocks have held up well, despite being legacy industries, compared to the avantgarde internet giants and EV startups of Silicon Valley which are listed on NASDAQ and NYSE. Even Tesla has been losing value at the rate of a depleting battery over recent months.

There is one exception, however, and that is Apple.

Two days ago, Apple stock was at its highest point in over one month, and today, whilst that steady climb that has taken place during the past 30 days has begun to tail off, the value of Apple stock is still strong, finishing the New York session and beginning today's trading at $153.20.

Over the past month, Apple stock has been relatively volatile, however the overall upward direction demonstrates a 12.7% increase over its price this time one month ago, with the five-day moving average looking a little more volatile, with some sharp upward and downward movements having taken place during the past week. However, despite those sharp movements, the overall value has remained steady with only a 0.41% drop over the past five days.

Perhaps one of the factors that has made Apple stock stand out from the other big tech stocks which have experienced value decreases compared to Apple's increases is that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway investment company has increased its stake in Apple this week.

Berkshire Hathaway already had a very large steak in Apple, however the fund management company has now acquired Alleghany, which is an American insurance company which owned shares in Apple. As part of the takeover by Berkshire Hathaway, Alleghany's share in Apple was transferred to Bershire Hathaway.

Berkshire Hathaway's overall Apple stake, which includes around 20 million shares held by its New England Asset Management subsidiary, stood at 916 million shares or 5.8% of the company at the end of December last year, however the position was worth over $140 billion as of Tuesday's close, making it easily the most valuable holding in Berkshire's portfolio.

Warren Buffett is well known for his astute shrewdness and conservative attitude to risk, which puts his interest in Apple at a different end of the spectrum to those SPAC listings which took place 2 years ago where a gung-ho approach was taken and previously unknown companies with unproven products had suddenly become valued at tens of millions of dollars, only to decrease once the reality sets in.

Apple's reality is solid business and backing by one of the world's most prudent and astute fund managers. That difference is clear when looking at investor response.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 16th FEB, 2023

ETHUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $1462

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of $1462 on 13th Feb, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar now ranging above the $1650 handle today in the Asian trading session.

We can see a continuous escalation in the price of Ethereum which is expected to push up its price above the $1700 handle.

The price of ETH has touched a new record high of 5 months.

We can clearly see a double bottom pattern above the $1462 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just above its pivot level of 1681 and moving into a strongly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1687 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1693 after which the path towards 1800 will get cleared.

We can see the formation of bullish engulfing lines in the weekly time frame.

The relative strength index is at 75.92 indicating a very strong demand for Ether and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

The RSI is giving an overbought signal, which means that the price is expected to decline in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a STRONG BUY signal at the current market level of $1683.

ETH is now trading above both the 100 hourly simple and 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1462 mark.
• The short-term range appears to be strongly bullish.
• ETH continues to remain above the $1650 level.
• The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility.

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1462

ETHUSD has now resumed its bullish trend and we are now expecting a retest of the $1800 level soon after which the next visible targets are located at $1800 and $2000 levels.

We can see the formation of a bullish price crossover pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA20 in the weekly time frame.

We have also detected the formation of a white gravestone/inverted hammer pattern in the daily time frame conforming to the bullish reversal.

ETHUSD touched an intraday high of 1707 and an intraday low of 1664 in the Asian trading session today.

The Aroon indicator is giving a bullish trend in the daily time frame.

The key support levels to watch are $1657 at which the price crosses 9-day moving average stalls, and $1679 which is a 3-10 day MACD oscillator stalls.

ETH has increased by 8.76% with a price change of 135.58$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 12.329 billion USD.

We can see an increase of 34.47% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which is due to the heavy buying seen at lower levels.

The Week Ahead

ETH has now moved into a breakout zone which is expected to continue this week and now we are heading towards the $1800 level.

At present the prices are moving in a super bullish zone above the $1650 levels.

We can see the formation of a bullish ascending channel from $1462 towards the $1713 level.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral under present market conditions.

The resistance zone is located at $1809 which is a 14-Day RSI at 70%, and at $1842 which is a pivot point 3rd level resistance.

Weekly outlook is projected at $1900 with a consolidation zone of $1850.

Technical Indicators:

The STOCH (9,6): is at 58.99 indicating a BUY.

The moving average convergence divergence (12,26): is at 32.22 indicating a BUY.

The Williams percent range: is at -20.25 indicating a BUY.

The rate of price change: is at 5.77 indicating a BUY.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

AUD/USD and NZD/USD At Risk of More Losses

AUD/USD is moving lower below the 0.6880 support zone. NZD/USD is also declining and might accelerate lower below the 0.6220 support.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from the 0.7000 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6880 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD also started a fresh decline below the 0.6285 support zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6260 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar struggled to clear the key 0.7000 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair even spiked above the 0.7000 level before the bears appeared.

The pair traded as high as 0.7028 on FXOpen and started a fresh decline. There was a clear move below the 0.6920 and 0.6880 support levels. Recently, the pair declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the recovery wave from the 0.6840 swing low to 0.6906 high.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

The pair is now trading below 0.6860 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6880 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

It is trading just below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recovery wave from the 0.6840 swing low to 0.6906 high. On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.6840 level. The next support could be the 0.6800 level.

If there is a downside break below the 0.6800 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.670 level. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair is facing resistance near the 0.6880 level. The next major resistance is near the 0.6920 level.

A close above the 0.6920 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance could be 0.7000.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Watch FXOpen's February 13 - 17 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• SEC putting pressure on the crypto industry
• UK GDP declined in December
• FTSE reaches record high
• Apple stock maintains highs, flying in face of tech drop

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenuk #weeklyvideo

 

[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD Eyes Recovery While GBP/JPY Could Rise Further

GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 1.2000 resistance. GBP/JPY could rise further unless there is a downside break below the 160.50 support.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

• The British Pound is slowly moving higher above 1.2000 against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.1970 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• GBP/JPY started a fresh increase above the 160.00 resistance zone.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 161.10 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound extended its decline below the 1.2000 support against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even traded below the 1.1950 level and traded towards 1.1920.

The pair traded as low as 1.1912 on FXOpen and recently started a minor upside correction. There was a clear move above the 1.1950 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even cleared the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2268 swing high to 1.1915 low.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

It is now trading near the 1.2020 zone. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.2050 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2268 swing high to 1.1915 low.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2100 level, above which the pair could start a steady increase towards 1.2150. An upside break above 1.2150 might start a fresh increase towards 1.2200. Any more gains might call for a move towards 1.2250 or even 1.2320.

An immediate support is near the 1.2000 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The next major support is near the 1.1950 level. If there is a break below the 1.1950 support, the pair could test the 1.1910 support. Any more losses might send GBP/USD towards 1.1840.

VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Oil volatility in vogue once again as crude production set to decrease

After a very brief period of stagnation, crude oil prices are once again becoming volatile.

Oil, along with many other raw material commodities which are used as energy sources, has been at the center of discussion for over two years, first of all due to restrictions on supplies caused by logistical channels being hampered by national lockdowns in key markets such as the Antipodes, Europe and North America, swiftly followed by a curtailment of supply by many of Russia's energy giants to European and American customers during the course of 2022.

This resulted in a huge rise in oil prices across the world, because once again the demand was unable to be met by supply as European settlements to Russian energy companies were unable to be claimed by the suppliers due to sanctions on their Euro-denominated bank accounts, resulting in many customers having to pay for oil via direct settlement to a ruble-denominated bank account in Moscow.

By the summer of last year, the cost of everyday consumer products based on oil such as fuel for motor vehicles rocketed and compounded and already serious cost of living crisis.

This subsequently dwindled and many national governments stepped in to put price caps in place, however that has not been as simple a solution as it may have initially seemed.

The price of crude oil has remained volatile despite the end user cost of fuel and domestic energy having reduced due to a combination of market conditions and government incentives, and this week, a further sudden movement has taken place.

At the end of last week, Brent Crude Oil was heading toward the $80 per barrel mark. By Thursday it had reached $79.2 per barrel, but as the European trading session opened on Friday, this high value suddenly crashed to $75 per barrel.

During the early hours of this morning, the price began to rise substantially again and is now heading toward the $78 mark, largely caused by an announcement that Russian oil firms are going to proceed with the planned cut in oil production by 500,000 barrels a day in March in response to the Western governments imposing price caps on its oil and oil products.

These price caps are bizzare in their nature, in that G7 governments have agreed that all oil from any other oil producing country will be bought at market prices, whereas oil from Russian energy firms should be capped at $45 per barrel.

Of course, Russian energy firms subject to such a cap will not supply oil on those terms, as it would represent a loss-making endeavor, so they will cut the production and not supply regions in which this cap is implemented.

This has caused the price of oil to rise, because there will once again be a supply shortage in Europe.

As a coincidence, Additionally, the overall OPEC+ nations last October stated that they would cut oil production targets by 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2023, so this cut by Russian firms in March is a sudden step to curtail production against a wider backdrop of scaling back oil production by the overall OPEC+ bloc of nations.

Supply and demand has always dictated the price of consumable commodities such as oil, and today's circumstances are no exception.

VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

8,000 was a pipe dream for the FTSE 100... for now!

It has been clear for almost two years that the FTSE 100 index, which consists of the 100 most prestigious and well capitalized blue-chip companies listed on the London Stock Exchange, has been the exception to the overall direction of most other assets in the United Kingdom.

Whilst the Pound, along with many other business sectors, floundered, and a cost of living crisis engulfed the nation whilst energy prices and the cost of everyday consumables and necessities rocketed due to 50-year highs in inflation, the FTSE 100 remained not only very buoyant but reached unprecedented highs.

Back in mid-2021, euphoric analysts were waxing lyrical on financial news channels in mainstream media about how the FTSE 100 index had broken the 7,000 point barrier. That was during a time at which the British government was lining up its ministers on an almost daily basis to tell the public how intent on locking down the country's businesses and public on a repeated basis, disabling businesses and impoverishing the general public.

Now, here we are a year and a half later, and whilst the lockdowns have stopped, they have been replaced by geopolitical uncertainty and an intent involvement by the British government in sanctions against one of the world's largest oil and gas producing country as well as massive public spending during a time of recession in which millions of people are having to tighten their belts and interest rates are four times higher than they were two years ago with inflation still in double digits.

Despite this perhaps alarming backdrop, the FTSE 100 is not only hovering above the 7,000 points mark that it was during the equally surprising trends demonstrated in 2021, but it has been almost reaching 8,000 points!

Just last week, many seasoned analysts in financial institutions had looked toward the 8,000 point mark being reached.

This looked very likely last week, as the value of the FTSE 100 index continued to rise rapidly, but today things have taken a turn.

The FTSE 100 index dropped by 0.68% during the early hours of the London trading session and by 9.00am UK time, it was trading at 7,954 points.

That is still very high and is still at its highest point in over a year apart from last Thursday when it briefly broke through the 8,000 points mark and reached 8012 points which is an all time high.

Whilst it is still very interesting and quite fascinating that these high levels are being reached by the performance of long-established traditional companies that make up the FTSE 100 index in such bleak economic times, the seemingly endless upward surge has stopped and momentum has tailed off.

That it is still high is of course remarkable, but the real news here is that the one economic measure that has been bucking the trend for a long time has begun to stop increasing in value at such a rapid rate.

What is perhaps odd here is that FTSE 100 opened lower this morning even though there has been better than expected news on public sector debt in the United Kingdom - something many people are very worried about - and ahead of a raft of PMI announcements.

It is highly likely that some macro data has affected the values, and the only negative information that has come to light is that medical firm Smith & Nephew announced a drop in annual operating profits as margins dipped.

The global medical technology company said operating profit margins slipped to 8.6% from 11.4% reflecting higher inflation in freight and logistics, the impact of China VBP, as well as sales and marketing expenditure levels returning to more normal levels. However despite this, its stock rose in value by over 6%!

InterContinental Hotels PLC experienced a drop in share value of 2.1%, following its announcement of a forthcoming $750 million share buyback. That is still not much to rock the entire index however.

Perhaps this is just a small blip, but it is definitely one of interest.

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[FXOpen Trader]

BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 21st FEB 2023

BTCUSD: Three WHITE Soldiers Pattern Above $22079

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bearish momentum last week and after touching a low of $22079 the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar, touching a high of $25093 today in the Asian trading session.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see the three white soldiers pattern above the $22079 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday low of 24681 and an intraday high of 25093 in the Asian trading session today.

We can see that the MACD indicator is back over zero in the weekly time frame indicating bullish trends.

We can see a bullish price crossover with moving average MA50 in the weekly time frame indicating bullish trends.

Both the STOCH and STOCHRSI are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The resistance of the channel is broken in the daily time frame indicating a bullish scenario.

The relative strength index is at 62.08 indicating a STRONG demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple moving average and above its 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a buy signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 25000 and 27500.

The average true range is indicating less market volatility with a strong bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin: Bullish reversal seen above $22079.
• The Williams percent range is giving an overbought signal.
• The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $25005.
• The short-term range is strongly BULLISH.

Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $22079

The price of bitcoin is marching ahead of the $25000 levels amid improving consumer sentiments and a shift towards a high demand market.

The momentum indicator is back over zero in the 15-minute time frame indicating a bullish outlook.

The MACD crosses up its moving average in the 15-minute time frame.

We can see that the prices have entered into a supper bullish zone and now we are heading towards the $26000 and $27500 levels.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $23074 at which the price crosses 18-day moving average stalls, and $23315 which is a pivot point 2nd support point.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 25077 and Fibonacci resistance level of 25120 after which the path towards 26000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has increased by 2.14% by 524.45$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 27.875 billion. We can see a decrease of 2.34% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

Bitcoin needs to continue its bullish moves this week, which will further validate the end of the crypto winter and the start of a bullish run for Bitcoin which was long overdue.

There is an ascending channel forming with the current support at $23165 at which the price crosses the 18-day moving average.

The daily RSI is printing at 66.97 which indicates a VERY STRONG demand for bitcoin and the continuation of the bullish phase present in the markets in the short-term range.

We can see the formation of a bullish trend line from $22079 towards the $25265 level.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone located at $25890 which is a pivot point 2nd resistance level and $26017 which is a 3-10 day MACD oscillator stalls.

The weekly outlook is projected at $27000 with a consolidation zone of $26000.

Technical Indicators:

The average directional index (14): is at 32.84 indicating a BUY.

The ultimate oscillator: is at 53.92 indicating a BUY.

The rate of price change: is at 0.979 indicating a BUY.

Bull/bear power (13): is at 204.85 indicating a BUY.

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[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Turns Red While EUR/JPY Could Rally Further

EUR/USD is struggling below the 1.0700 resistance zone. EUR/JPY is rising and might rally further if it clears the 144.20 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0700 support zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0670 on the hourly chart.
• EUR/JPY started a steady increase after it found support near the 141.50.
• There is a major rising channel forming with support near 143.50 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0800 zone and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair declined below the 1.0740 support to enter a bearish zone.

There was a clear move below the 1.0700 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even declined below the 1.0650 level before correcting a few points. The recent low was formed near 1.0637 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting higher.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.0670 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0670 on the hourly chart.

The trend line is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0698 swing high to 1.0637 low. The 50 hourly simple moving average is also near the 1.0670 resistance zone. The next major resistance is near the 1.0685 level.

The 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0698 swing high to 1.0637 low is also near 1.0685. The main resistance is near 1.0700. A clear move above the 1.0700 resistance might send the price towards 1.0750. If the bulls remain in action, the pair could visit the 1.0800 resistance zone in the near term.

On the downside, the pair might find support near the 1.0635 level. The next major support sits near the 1.0610 level, below which the pair could even test the 1.0565 support zone.

If there is a downside break below the 1.0565 support, the pair might accelerate lower in the coming sessions. In the stated case, it could even test 1.0520.

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[FXOpen Trader]

British Pound suddenly jumps against Euro and Dollar in surprise revival

Anyone who has walked the streets of rural England over the past two years would be led to believe that there is no end to the continual economic doom and gloom.

Very concerned residents, combined with news headlines focusing on recessions, cost of living crises, virulent inflation and a noticeable downturn in standards of living would have likely been very visible.

Certainly these are not sentiments without basis. Despite the British calmness, there has definitely been cause for grave concern for many residents of the provincial areas of the country for at least two years now.

London continues to prosper, due to its status as an international capital, unaffected by national ups and downs, as well as being the world's largest and most developed financial center, hence there have been some very stable stock market trends in the capital despite the backdrop of austerity in the wider United Kingdom.

The decline of the British Pound over the latter period of last year against the US Dollar and Euro was a very concerning dynamic. It clearly demonstrated the woes of Brexit, as well as the clear reality that even a wounded US economy was able to get back on track quicker than the blighted British economy.

Inflation in the United Kingdom remains at around 10.5%, against 6.5% in the United States, and whilst the North American corporations have had their revenues affected by the decrease in inflation in their own domestic market which has meant that they have to pay more to support their European subsidiaries in areas of high inflation, as well as pay suppliers more as the US inflation decreases and European inflation continues to rise, domestic business is doing quite well in various states.

The US Dollar has been holding its own, and has been very strong against the Pound and Euro for many months.

However suddenly the British Pound has arisen from its downward spiral and by yesterday evening, a sudden spike was evident.

At 16.00 during the London trading session, the British Pound had risen from the low 1.21 mark earlier in the day to almost 1.22.

That may seem only a small movement on the face of it, but it is actually the highest point in five days by far, half a percent above the five day moving average.

The same applies to the Pound's movement against the Euro. Early this morning it suddenly gained ground and reached 1.137, another five day high against a major currency.

The sudden upward surge that the Pound has experienced has now leveled off, but it has not dropped in value to the lows of earlier this week.

One possible explanation for this could be that figures released by the British government yesterday showing stronger customer demand contributed to renewed increases in backlogs of work and employment across the private sector economy during February, therefore alluding to a possible increase in growth for the British economy which has languished for so long.

The Pound's journey has been interesting over recent months, now the conundrum of whether the British economy is getting itself back on track or not is another item to watch.

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[FXOpen Trader]

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 23rd FEB, 2023

ETHUSD: Hammer Pattern Above $1596

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1596 on 22nd Feb, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar crossing the $1650 handle today in the European trading session.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see a hammer pattern above the $1596 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1666 and moving into a mildly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1669 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1671 after which the path towards 1700 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 61.93 indicating a strong demand for Ether and the continuation of the bullish phase in the markets.

We can see the formation of bullish engulfing lines in the daily time frame.

Both the STOCH and STOCHRSI are indicating an overbought market, which means that the prices are expected to decline in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a strong buy market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a strong buy signal, and we are now looking at the levels of $1700 to $1750 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading above its 100 & 200 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1596 mark.
• The short-term range appears to be strongly bullish.
• ETH continues to remain above the $1650 levels.
• The average true range is indicating less market volatility.

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1596

ETHUSD is now moving in a strongly bullish channel with the prices trading above the $1650 handle in the European trading session today.

ETH touched an intraday low of 1637 and an intraday high of 1678 in the Asian trading session today.

The horizontal resistance is broken in the daily time frame, indicating bullish trends.

The MACD crosses up its moving average in the 4-hour time frame indicating bullish nature of the markets.

The Ichimoku – bullish crossover: Tenkan and Kjiun patterns are visible which is a bulish indication of the markets.

The Ichimoku price is over the cloud in the 1-hour time frame indicating a bullish scenario.

The Aroon indicator is giving a bullish trend in the 15-minute time frame.

The key support levels to watch are $1603 which is a 50% retracement from a 4-week high/low, and $1631 at which the price crosses the 9-day moving average.

ETH has increased by 1.84% with a price change of 30.19$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 8.818 billion USD.

We can see an increase of 1.15% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

ETH’s price continues to remain in a bullish zone against the US dollar and bitcoin. ETHUSD is expected to move higher towards the $1700 and $1800 levels this week.

On the upside we are now looking at the immediate targets of 1724 which is a pivot point 3rd level resistance, and 1741 which is a 13-week high.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The price of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $1628 which is a pivot point.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1800 with a consolidation zone of $1750.

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[FXOpen Trader]

Gold Price Faces Hurdles And Crude Oil Price Could Recover Steadily

Gold price declined from the $1,850 resistance zone. Crude oil price is attempting a recovery wave above the $75.50 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price started a strong decline below the $1,832 level against the US Dollar.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $1,835 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price started a fresh increase from the $73.75 support zone.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $75.70 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price struggled to clear the $1,850 resistance against the US Dollar. The price started a strong decline and traded below the $1,832 support zone.

The bears even pushed the price below $1,825 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price traded below the $1,820 level. A low is formed near $1,817 on FXOpen and the price is now consolidating losses. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the $1,828 level or the 50 hourly simple moving average.

Gold Price Hourly Chart

The stated level is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,846 swing high to $1,817 low. The next key hurdle is near the $1,832 level.

There is also a key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $1,835 on the hourly chart of gold. The trend line is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,846 swing high to $1,817 low.

A clear upside break above the $1,835 resistance could send the price towards $1,850. If there is no upside break, the price might correct lower.

An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,820 level. The next major support is near the $1,812 level, below which there is a risk of a larger decline. In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,800 support zone.

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[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD Declines Heavily While EUR/GBP Attempts Recovery

GBP/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.2200 support zone. EUR/GBP is rising and trading above the 0.8920 support zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2150 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2000 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP found support near 0.8780 and is currently recovering higher.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.8805 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound started a major decline from the 1.2150 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair gained pace below the 1.2050 level to move into a bearish zone.

There was a clear move below the 1.2000 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The bears even pumped the price below the 1.1950 level and a low is formed near 1.1928 on FXOpen. It is now consolidating losses and trading below the 1.2000 level.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.1985 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2041 swing high to 1.1928 low.

The first major resistance is near the 1.2000 level. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2000 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The trend line is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2041 swing high to 1.1928 low.

A clear move above the 1.2000 level could spark a decent increase. The next major resistance sits near the 1.2020 level. Any more gains might send the pair towards the 1.2100 resistance zone.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.1925 level. The next major support is near the 1.1880 level. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.1800 support zone.

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[FXOpen Trader]

Things are beginning to look up for the British Pound

The British Pound, which for many years was a bastion of solidity, its position as the world's most valuable sovereign currency giving it a unique status among other majors, and its low volatility giving it a guilt-edged reputation for low volatility and dependable long term value.

That all changed during the course of last year, when the combined result of the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union, one and a half years of lockdowns, and involvement in global geopolitical affairs along with a cost of living crisis which is now over a year long, resulted in the British Pound sliding down to very low points against the Euro and US Dollar over a period of several weeks.

As 2023 began, this constant reduction in value began to subside and volatility began, with the Pound sometimes regaining ground against the Dollar and Euro despite the clear economic concerns about the recession-bound British economy.

Today, a little more volatility has been demonstrated, and the Pound rose this morning quite noticeably against the US Dollar, going from 1.19 to the high 1.20 range within an hour of the London markets opening.

This may be the result of a few interesting factors, one of which may be the Office of National Statistics (ONS) having released data that the value of total goods imports into the United Kingdom increased by £155.5 billion (32.3%) and the value of total goods exports increased by £66.2 billion (20.8%) in 2022 when compared with 2021, which is an interesting and confidence-inspiring metric considering 2022's poor economic outlook for the country.

Perhaps the most pragmatic way to view this is that imports did grow, but that is compared to 2021 when supply chain restrictions and lockdowns impeded imports, and consumers were saving their money due to uncertainty about the reopening of the economy.

Either way, this is a positive direction and the Pound is responding in line with it.

Additionally, as London continues to be an international financial and economic powerhouse despite the woes in the rest of the country, global consultancy EY has released figures which forecast that London's economy is on track to expand 2.6 per cent each year between 2024 and 2026, pushing it to the top of the countrywide growth table.

Perhaps it is fair to assume that if this is the case, London is continuing to expand its economy despite the struggles in the provincial areas, denoting two distinctly different economic structures in one country.

London's standing as a global financial capital with the world's best infrastructure for Tier 1 trading bodes well for growth as international business is the backbone of the city's financial ecosystem, therefore an increase in the value of the Pound on the back of such a report is perhaps to be expected.

Certainly despite London’s GDP being expected to undergo a minor slowdown, shrinking 0.2 per cent this year, also the lowest of any region, it is tipped to race past Britain’s average yearly growth of 2.1 per cent between 2024 and 2026.

Therefore the analysis depicts volatility, and the national currency is echoing it very clearly.

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