Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD is in a consolidation phase following a sharp decline: the market is too nervous

The euro hit a new low before recovering. Investors are observing signs of a slowdown in European economies. Find out more in our analysis for 25 November 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair reached a new low and recovered
• Investors expect a swift reduction in ECB interest rates to support weak economies
• EURUSD forecast for 25 November 2024: 1.0500 and 1.0414

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.0476 on Monday after dropping to 1.0331 earlier.

A rather gloomy business survey triggered the euro’s decline, which revealed a contraction in the two largest European economies – France and Germany – in November. The market believes that the re-election of Donald Trump as US president will further weaken the already fragile European economy. Potential import duties could hurt Germany’s export-oriented economy. These risks are significant, putting substantial pressure on the EUR rate.

As a result, the market is betting that the ECB will lower interest rates more aggressively to address the economic weakness. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is expected to take a more cautious approach. An increase in the interest rate differential will make the euro less appealing, boosting demand for dollar-dominated assets.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Swiss franc declines: markets again favour the US dollar

The USDCHF pair shows moderate gains with accelerated growth potential. Find out more in our analysis for 26 November 2024.

USDCHF forecast: key trading points

• The USDCHF pair is poised for growth
• The SNB prioritises low inflation
• USDCHF forecast for 26 November 2024: 0.8815

Fundamental analysis

The USDCHF rate is hovering around 0.8863.

The Swiss franc recently fell to its mid-July 2024 low against the US dollar due to the rapid strengthening of the US currency. Strong expectations persist in the market that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate cuts due to robust economic data. Additionally, market participants are overly cautious, given the significant impact of US President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist policies.

The Swiss National Bank’s inflation target ranges between 0% and 2%. The SNB intends to prioritise maintaining low inflation as the foundation for its monetary policy.

Annual inflation in Switzerland fell for the third consecutive month in October, reaching 0.6%, marking its lowest level since June 2021.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDCHF Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCAD: pressure on the Canadian dollar intensifies

The USDCAD rate strengthens despite yesterday’s rebound from the key resistance level. Discover more in our analysis for 27 November 2024

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• The US Federal Reserve noted uncertainty in economic data, which complicates interest rate decisions
• The Bank of Canada is considering further rate cuts; however, the chances of a 50-basis-point cut have decreased due to rising inflation
• Canada’s core inflation grew to 2.6% in October, exceeding expectations
• Canada’s wholesale sales increased by 0.5% in October but fell short of forecasts
• USDCAD forecast for 27 November 2024: 1.4011

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate has risen for the fourth consecutive trading session, showing a steady bullish trend. Buyers are likely preparing to retest the crucial 1.4110 resistance level. The Canadian dollar fell to 2020 lows after Donald Trump threatened to raise Canadian import tariffs by 20%.

The Federal Reserve emphasised the difficulty of making decisions amid uncertainty in evolving data and the impact of a neutral interest rate. The policy remains dependent on economic trends, so interest rates are expected to remain elevated if inflation stays steady and be reduced if the labour market weakens. Against this backdrop, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December rose to 62.8% from 55.9% a week ago.

The Bank of Canada is poised to lower the interest rate next month. However, the likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut decreased after the release of inflation data. Core inflation, the gauge preferred by the Bank of Canada, rose to 2.6% in October from 2.4% in September, exceeding forecasts. According to today’s USDCAD forecast, lower expectations of an aggressive Bank of Canada rate cut could limit the potential for further US dollar strength.

Meanwhile, Canada’s wholesale sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month in October, following a 0.8% rise in September, but missed the forecast of 0.9%. The growth was partly due to increased sales in the automotive sector, including spare parts and accessories.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDCAD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY is under pressure amid expectations of a BoJ interest rate hike

The USDJPY rate is recovering after falling for two days. Discover more in our analysis for 28 November 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The Japanese yen has strengthened by over 2.6% in the past two days due to expectations of a monetary policy tightening by the BoJ
• The Bank of Japan’s chief hinted at the likelihood of a December interest rate hike to support the yen
• Market expectations of a 25-basis-point rate hike in Japan stand at 60%
• Analysts expect Tokyo’s core CPI to rise to 2.3% in October
• USDJPY forecast for 28 November 2024: 152.90

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rises following the bears’ failure to secure a position below the 151.25 support level. The Japanese yen has strengthened by more than 2.6% in the past two days due to expectations that the BoJ may raise the interest rate as early as next month. The US dollar is under additional pressure from a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December. In addition, key US inflation data aligned with market expectations, signalling no changes in the Fed’s monetary policy.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda had earlier referred to the likelihood of a December interest rate hike, citing the need to support the yen. Market players expect a 25-basis-point rate hike in Japan with a 60% probability, well above the 50% recorded a week ago. Most analysts share these expectations.

Investors are also eagerly awaiting Friday’s release of Japan’s inflation data, which may affect the BoJ’s further actions. Tokyo's core CPI is projected to rise to 2.3% in October from 1.8%, heightening expectations of monetary policy tightening. Against this backdrop, today’s USDJPY forecast shows that the Japanese yen will likely strengthen further.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) is up, rising above 2,650 USD

This week, XAUUSD prices received support from buyers at the 2,600 USD level and reversed upwards, with growth likely to continue. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 29 November 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the US markets are closed as the country celebrates Thanksgiving Day
• Current trend: Upward movement
• XAUUSD forecast for 29 November 2024: 2,650 and 2,700

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes completed a downward correction and confidently reversed upwards, resuming the long-term uptrend. Gold remains in strong demand from central banks and investors, supported by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy easing and the escalation of local military conflicts. The decline in the US dollar against major currencies also contributed to Gold’s growth this week.

With US markets closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday, no macroeconomic data is expected to be released. Without major news, Gold may continue to strengthen moderately within the current technical framework.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD declines at the beginning of the week as the news lull ends

The British pound sterling is undergoing a correction after its recent rise and is trading at 1.2691, as the impact of the US dollar has returned in full force. Find out more in our analysis for 2 December 2024.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• The GBPUSD pair rose briefly before pausing
• The extended US holidays provided support for the pound’s rise
• GBPUSD forecast for 2 December 2024: 1.2635 and 1.2763

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate has dropped to 1.2691.

At the end of last week, the GBP strengthened against the US dollar as overseas investors observed an extended Thanksgiving holiday. Trading volumes were low, but November proved to be highly volatile.

However, the pound’s November losses against the US dollar were less pronounced than the euro’s. The GBP’s resilience was supported by expectations of a more decisive monetary policy from the Bank of England and the threat of tariff complications from the new US administration. For the pound, the absence of news was indeed good news.

The GBPUSD forecast appears moderate.

Read this article on RoboForex website - GBPUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY resumes growth, but the yen will not retreat easily

The USDJPY pair rose to 150.06 on Tuesday. Despite sustained pressure, the Japanese yen remains resilient. Find out more in our analysis for 3 December 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair recorded modest gains
• Investors remain optimistic about a December Bank of Japan interest rate hike
• USDJPY forecast for 3 December 2024: 150.70

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY exchange rate rose to 150.06.

Despite local pressure from the US dollar, the yen remains close to a seven-week high. The optimism is attributed to expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in December.

Last weekend, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that further rate hikes were imminent as economic data aligned with expectations.

Investors currently assess the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate hike this month at 60%, compared to no more than 50% last week.

The USDJPY forecast is neutral.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team