Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD rises amid US inflation slowdown

The EURUSD rate is strengthening but remains at a strong resistance level of 1.1200. Read more in our analysis for 30 September 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index rose by 0.1% in August, while the annual growth was 2.2%
• The Core PCE index increased by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year in August
• Initial jobless claims fell to 218k, a 4-month low
• The likelihood of the Fed rate cut by 50 basis points decreased to 54%, and a cut by 25 basis points increased to 46%
• EURUSD forecast for 30 September 2024: 1.1222

Fundamental analysis

EURUSD is slightly higher on Monday as the US dollar remained under pressure amid poor economic data reinforcing expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.1% in August compared to July, while the annualised growth rate was the lowest since February 2021, at 2.2%, versus the forecasted 2.3%.

The Core PCE (Core Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index, which does not include food and energy prices, also rose 0.1% in August from the previous month and increased by 2.7% annually. The Core PCE index is the Fed’s key indicator to assess inflation risks.

At the same time, data on jobless claims demonstrated the labour market’s resilience. The number of initial applications for benefits decreased by 4,000 to 218,800, the lowest level for the last four months. Analysts had forecasted an increase to 223,400.

Investors await the September US employment report for further signals about the Fed’s policy. The probability of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut at the next meeting fell to 54.0% from 60.3%, while the odds of a 25-point cut rose to 46.0% from 39.7%. Given the weakness of the US dollar and the regulator’s subsequent actions, today’s EURUSD forecast still holds potential for a breakthrough of the 1.1200 level.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY develops upward momentum: the dollar has become the market favourite

USDJPY remains on the upside. Powell and Ishiba supported the USD. Read more in our USDJPY analysis for 1 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair has been ‘in the plus’ for the second consecutive day
• Powell’s comments have reinforced support for the US dollar
• USDJPY forecast for 1 October 2024: 144.47

Fundamental analysis

On 1 October 2024, the USDJPY rose to 144.29, marking the second session in a row with the yen declining against the dollar.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided support to the US dollar with his comments, signaling that a rapid reduction of interest rates in the US is not expected. Powell indicated that the Fed might opt for a 25 basis point rate cut in its two remaining meetings this year. The Fed has shifted its outlook from a ‘hard’ rate stance to a softer, more adaptable approach, leading the market to reevaluate its position.

In Japan, political comments from Shigeru Ishiba, former defence minister, added pressure on the yen. Ishiba emphasised that Japan's fiscal policies should remain flexible, reflecting the nation's current economic conditions.

The USDJPY outlook continues to favour the US dollar, and further gains are anticipated.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) reverses down from resistance at 2,670 USD

Gold (XAUUSD) experienced a reversal after attempting to break through the resistance at 2,670 USD. Today, market participants will shift their focus to the US labour market data from ADP, which could significantly impact the XAUUSD outlook. Read more in our analysis for today, 2 October 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants are awaiting today's Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) statistics on the US labour market, which will serve as a potential signal for the next moves in XAUUSD
• Current trend: a correction within the uptrend is underway
• XAUUSD forecast for 2 October 2024: 2,685 and 2,630

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are currently in a moderate downward correction after reaching an all-time high of 2,685 USD last week. Yesterday, XAUUSD prices surged due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Today's employment data from ADP is expected to reveal 120,000 new jobs. If the data falls below the forecast, it could pressure the USD and strengthen gold, signalling a bullish trend for XAUUSD. Conversely, if job growth exceeds expectations, it would bolster the US dollar, contributing to a bearish XAUUSD prediction and potentially signalling a decline in gold prices.

Read this article on RoboForex website - XAUUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Silver (XAGUSD) corrects down from resistance at 32.30 USD

The XAGUSD price failed to overcome the resistance at 32.30 USD yesterday and entered a downward correction. Tomorrow, market participants will focus on US labour market data. Read about it in our XAGUSD analysis for today, 3 October 2024.

Silver forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants are awaiting tomorrow’s US labour market statistics
• Current trend: a local correction is underway within the uptrend
• XAGUSD forecast for 3 October 2024: 32.30 and 31.00

Silver fundamental analysis

Silver (XAGUSD) remains in a strong daily uptrend, fuelled by the US Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates by 0.50% during the September meeting. This cycle of rate cuts is weakening the US dollar, supporting both gold and silver prices.

Market participants are closely watching US employment data for insights. The ADP report on Wednesday showed an increase of 143,000 jobs. However, Friday’s upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate figures will be crucial. A decline in employment could weigh on the USD and provide bullish momentum for silver. At the same time, stronger-than-expected job growth could support the USD, potentially triggering a deeper correction in XAGUSD.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Silver Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY halts growth as the market pauses for further developments

USDJPY growth halted on Friday as the market paused and awaits further developments. More details and insights are available in our USDJPY analysis and forecast for today, 4 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair is consolidating
• The market paused following a 3% decline in the yen over the past week
• USDJPY forecast for 4 October 2024: 145.22 and 143.2

Fundamental analysis

On Friday, the USDJPY rate reached a high of 146.27 before stabilising. The Japanese yen has slightly recovered after its sharp decline of over 3% against the US dollar, driven by a shift in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance, which softened its outlook on interest rates.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reiterated that current economic conditions do not justify a rate hike. Meanwhile, the yen faced additional pressure from the strong appreciation of the US dollar. Recent US economic data signals that the Federal Reserve may not reduce interest rates as aggressively as initially expected.

The overall USDJPY forecast remains neutral as the market assesses these fundamental factors.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY: the strong US labour market supports growth in the pair

The USDJPY rate is approaching the 149.35 resistance level amid uncertainty regarding the BoJ policy. Discover more in our analysis for 7 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The number of US jobs increased by 254,000 in September, marking the highest gain over the past six months
• The likelihood of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut decreased to 4.3%
• Japan’s Leading Economic Index fell to its lowest level since October 2020
• USDJPY forecast for 7 October 2024: 145.95, 144.30, and 142.68

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate has decreased significantly since last week’s surge. The yen came under pressure due to statements from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa, who called for caution regarding further BoJ interest rate hikes, considering the current economic conditions.

The additional weakening of the yen is caused by the strong US employment report released on Friday. The US economy added 254,000 jobs in September, showing the most substantial growth over the past six months and reducing market expectations of a potential significant interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut in November decreased to 4.3%, while the odds of a softer 25-basis-point reduction increased to 95.7%. Such expectations in today’s USDJPY forecast may prompt buyers to break above the 149.35 resistance level.

Japan’s Leading Economic Index, which evaluates the prospects for the months ahead, decreased to 106.7 points in August 2024 from 109.3 in July, reaching its lowest level since October 2020. Japan’s Coincident Index, which includes data such as production output, employment, and retail sales, dropped to 113.5 in August from 117.2 a month earlier, marking the lowest reading since February.

Traders are currently focusing on the upcoming wage data in Japan, which may impact inflationary expectations and the BoJ’s monetary policy.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent declines moderately following a surge to 81.00 USD

Brent prices surged to 81.00 USD amid increasing tensions in the Middle East. Growth may continue after a minor correction. Find out more in our Brent analysis for today, 8 October 2024.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• US data: the market awaits the API crude oil stock report today
• Current trend: correcting as part of the uptrend
• Brent forecast for 8 October 2024: 81.00 and 77.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent quotes are experiencing a strong upward rally (rising by about 10% in a week) following escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is set to release US crude oil stock data today. A decline in inventories may support Brent prices, while an increase may conversely push the asset price down.

The market is also awaiting US inflation statistics this week, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) due on Thursday and Friday. Oil will likely react to the US stock market’s response to inflation data. A rise will propel Brent’s price, while a decrease will push it down.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Brent Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY is in a consolidation phase: the market requires new signals

The USDJPY pair has been holding in a range for the third day. Investors are cautious. Find out more in our analysis for 9 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair has started to consolidate
• Investors are conserving strength in anticipation of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes
• USDJPY forecast for 9 October 2024: 146.36, 144.20, and 143.60

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is stable, hovering around 148.34 on Wednesday.

Although interesting signals emerge, Japan’s domestic statistics do not affect the JPY trajectory. The Tankan sentiment index rose to 7 points in October, above the forecasted 6, which is a positive signal for Japan’s economy.

Investors are awaiting the release of the previous US Federal Reserve meeting minutes today to gain insights into the regulator’s true intentions regarding the future of interest rates. Current expectations now suggest two rate cuts before the end of the year, of 25 basis points each. The minutes will reveal whether this perspective will persist or be revised to a more aggressive stance.

The USDJPY forecast appears neutral.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD appears weak: US inflation data ahead

The EURUSD pair declined markedly. The market believes in the US dollar’s “exceptionalism”. Discover more in our analysis for 10 October 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair fell to a low seen on 13 August
• The market increasingly favours the US dollar
• EURUSD forecast for 10 October 2024: 1.0905

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is consolidating around 1.0943 on Thursday.

This is the euro’s lowest level since 13 August. As they say on the stock market, investors were again drawn to the idea of the US currency’s “exceptionalism”.

According to the latest US Federal Reserve meeting minutes released yesterday, the regulator remains focused on maintaining the health of the labour market. The US economy is growing strongly, providing solid support for the USD position.

Interesting US inflation data for September will be released today. The weekly jobless claims report is also worth noting.

The EURUSD forecast remains cautious for now.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) reversed upwards from 2,600 USD

XAUUSD price has completed a downward correction, with the chart showing an upward reversal. The market will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. More details and insights are available in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 11 October 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants are awaiting today’s US inflation statistics, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release
• Current trend: the pair is trading in an uptrend
• USD forecast for 11 October 2024: 2,630 and 2,670

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have completed a downward correction, receiving active support from buyers near 2,600 USD. Gold continues to attract demand from global central banks and investors, with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East adding to its appeal.

Yesterday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data broadly aligned with market expectations. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is due today. A weaker-than-expected reading could exert pressure on the USD and help strengthen gold. Conversely, a higher-than-expected figure would support the US dollar, potentially pushing XAUUSD prices lower.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team