Forex News Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

CADJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 19.08.2024






Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The CAD/JPY fundamental analysis today is influenced by various macroeconomic factors and market sentiment. The Canadian Dollar is often correlated with oil prices, as Canada is a major oil exporter. Rising oil prices typically strengthen the CAD. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen, often seen as a safe-haven currency, is influenced by global risk sentiment and Japan’s economic indicators, such as machine orders and monetary policy. The upcoming release of Japan's machine orders data is crucial as it may affect the JPY by indicating the health of Japan’s manufacturing sector. A stronger-than-expected release could lead to a stronger Yen, putting pressure on the CAD/JPY forecast.


Price Action:

The CAD/JPY H4 chart shows that the pair has been in a consolidation phase after a previous downtrend. The price is currently moving within a channel, bounded by rising trendlines, suggesting a gradual upward movement. However, recent candles indicate a struggle to break above the immediate resistance, highlighting potential indecision in the market. The pair’s price action shows it has recently tested and held above a key support level, which could suggest a buildup for another upward push if it holds.


Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud:

The price is trading near the upper boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud, which acts as resistance. A break above this level could signal a potential bullish breakout, while failure to do so might lead to a retracement.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

The RSI is currently at 55.90, indicating that the pair is in neutral to slightly bullish territory. There’s still room for upward movement before the market reaches overbought conditions.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

The MACD line is slightly above the signal line, and the histogram is in positive territory, suggesting that the bullish momentum is still intact but not overwhelmingly strong.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:

The key support levels are at 107.495 and 107.010, with the latter being crucial as it aligns with the lower trendline of the channel.

Resistance Levels:

Immediate resistance is found at 108.052, followed by a stronger resistance at 108.749. A break above these levels could lead to further gains toward 109.500.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The CAD/JPY technical analysis today on the pair’s H4 chart depicts a consolidation phase with the potential for an upward breakout if it can sustain above the current resistance levels. Traders should monitor the RSI for signs of overbought conditions and the MACD for any changes in momentum. Given the upcoming machine orders data from Japan, there may be increased volatility in the pair. Conservative traders might wait for a clear breakout from the current range before entering new positions. It’s also advisable to implement risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders, especially given the pair's proximity to key resistance levels.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
19.08.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 21.08.2024






Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)



Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair, reflecting the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar, is currently influenced by recent economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the United States. In the Eurozone, the latest PMI readings suggest a mixed economic outlook. The French Manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 44.4 from 44.0, indicating a marginal recovery, although the sector remains in contraction. The French Services PMI edged up to 50.2 from 50.1, pointing to stability in the services sector. Similarly, Germany’s Manufacturing PMI, while still weak at 43.4, showed a minor improvement from 43.2, whereas the Services PMI dipped slightly to 52.3 from 52.5, reflecting a slight slowdown. Meanwhile, in the United States, a significant drawdown in Crude Oil Inventories by -2.0M barrels, against expectations of a 1.4M increase, could signal potential supply constraints, influencing inflation expectations. Additionally, the upcoming FOMC Meeting Minutes will be crucial, as they are likely to offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s stance on future interest rates, a key driver of the USD's strength or weakness. These mixed economic signals suggest a cautious outlook for the EUR/USD pair, with the potential for heightened volatility depending on further developments in economic data and central bank policies.



Price Action:
On the H4 timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has experienced a robust bullish wave, propelling the price towards a significant resistance level. The recent price action has shown the formation of candlestick patterns at this resistance, indicating that the bullish momentum may be losing strength. This setup raises the possibility of a bearish correction, particularly as the price approaches this critical resistance. The technical indicators also reinforce this outlook. The MACD indicator is displaying signs of negative divergence, with the MACD line remaining below the signal line despite recent price highs, suggesting that the bullish momentum could be weakening. Similarly, the Williams %R is signaling overbought conditions, hovering near the -10 level, which typically precedes a market pullback.


Key Technical Indicators:

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD indicator is showing signs of a negative divergence, where the MACD line remains below the signal line despite the recent price highs. This divergence could indicate weakening bullish momentum and the potential for a bearish correction.
Williams %R (Percent Range): The Williams %R is also indicating overbought conditions, hovering near the -10 level, suggesting that the market might be due for a pullback.



Support and Resistance:

Support: Potential support levels to watch for a bearish correction include the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0975, the 50% retracement at 1.0901, and the 38.2% retracement at 1.0831.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at 1.1187, which corresponds with the current high and the 100% Fibonacci extension level.



Conclusion and Consideration:

The EUR/USD pair on the H4 chart is at a critical juncture, with potential for a bearish correction after a significant bullish wave. The negative divergence in the MACD and the overbought signal from the Williams %R suggest that a pullback could be imminent. Traders should consider short positions if the price action confirms a reversal at the current resistance level, targeting the key Fibonacci retracement levels as potential profit zones.


Disclaimer: The EURUSD provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information. Always consider risk management strategies and consult with a financial advisor if necessary.


FXGlory
21.08.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 22.08.2024





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The GBP/USD news analysis today is currently influenced by several key economic indicators. For today, the focus is on the U.S. data releases, including Jobless Claims and PMI figures, which will provide insights into the U.S. economy's health. Stronger-than-expected data could bolster the U.S. Dollar, leading to potential changes in the GBP/USD exchange rate. On the other hand, the U.K.'s PMI data and CBI Industrial Trends Survey are essential for gauging the British economy's performance. Better-than-expected U.K. data could support the Pound, but overall for this pair that is also known as the “Cable”, its market sentiment will largely be driven by U.S. economic indicators due to their global impact.


Price Action:

The GBP/USD H4chart, depicts the pair in a clear uptrend, with the price moving within an ascending channel. The recent candles show the Cable’s strong bullish momentum, with the price making higher highs and higher lows. The pair’s price action suggests that the pair is likely to continue its upward trajectory, although the price is currently approaching significant resistance levels that could lead to a temporary pullback or consolidation.


Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud:

The price is well above the Ichimoku Cloud, which is a strong bullish signal. The Tenkan-sen (blue) and Kijun-sen (red) lines are in a bullish crossover, further supporting the upward momentum. The Chikou Span (green) is also positioned above the price, confirming the bullish trend.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

The RSI is currently around 79.88, indicating that the pair is in overbought territory. While this suggests that the bullish momentum is strong, it also warns of a possible correction or consolidation in the near term as the market may need to cool off.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:

Immediate support is located at 1.3034, followed by stronger support at 1.2939, which coincides with the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud.

Resistance Levels:

The pair is currently testing resistance at 1.3089, with the next significant resistance level around 1.3140.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The GBP/USD technical analysis today shows a strong bullish trend, supported by the Ichimoku Cloud and the ascending channel formation. However, the RSI indicates that the pair is overbought, suggesting that a correction could be imminent. Traders should consider the upcoming U.S. economic data releases, which could influence the pair's forecast today. A break above 1.3089 could lead to further gains, but caution is advised due to the overbought RSI. Proper risk management, including setting stop-losses below the lower channel boundary, is recommended to protect against potential market volatility.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
22.08.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.26.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CAD news analysis today is influenced by a variety of macroeconomic factors, including crude oil prices (since Canada is a major oil exporter), interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, and economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment data, and inflation rates. Additionally, recent data releases related to U.S. durable goods orders are crucial as they indicate future production levels and economic strength. An actual reading higher than forecasted is generally seen as positive for the U.S. dollar. As a leading indicator of economic activity, a robust increase in these orders can signal that manufacturers anticipate stronger demand, which could support the USD against other currencies, including the CAD, subsequently affecting the pair also known as the “Loonie.”


Price Action:
The USD/CAD H4 chart shows the pair’s bearish trend, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. The Loonie’s price action has seen a downward momentum, breaking below key support levels, and trending within a downward-sloping channel. The pair’s candlestick patterns indicate selling pressure, with a lack of significant bullish reversal signs at the moment. A breakdown below the current support zone could lead to further declines, confirming the continuation of the bearish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating the pair’s bearish market sentiment. The cloud itself is acting as a resistance, and the lagging span (Chikou Span) confirms this bearish outlook as it is also below the price action. The future cloud is thin and bearish, suggesting that there is no immediate sign of reversal in this downtrend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 21, indicating that the market is in oversold territory. This suggests that while the bearish momentum is strong, there might be a potential for a short-term corrective bounce. However, oversold conditions alone do not indicate a reversal but rather that the current trend might be overstretched.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic indicator is also in the oversold region (around 10.92), which aligns with the RSI reading, indicating that the selling pressure might be nearing exhaustion. The possibility of a bullish crossover in the stochastic lines may hint at a potential short-term recovery, but confirmation is needed.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: Immediate support is seen at the 1.35062 level, which aligns with the lower boundary of the current descending channel. A break below this level could open the way towards further downside targets around 1.3450.

Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance level is marked at 1.35574, followed by a more significant resistance at 1.36139, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the descending channel and the Ichimoku cloud’s lower edge.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/CAD technical analysis today on the H4 timeframe is exhibiting its strong bearish sentiment, as evidenced by the technical indicators and the descending price channel. While oversold conditions on the RSI and Stochastic indicators suggest a possible short-term correction, the prevailing trend remains bearish. Traders should watch for the price action around the key support and resistance levels for potential breakout or reversal signals. The Loonie’s Fundamental analysis data, such as the upcoming durable goods orders release, could provide additional volatility and direction for the USD/CAD forecast. Risk management strategies, including the use of stop-loss orders, are advisable given the current market conditions.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
08.26.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USD/JPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.27.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The upcoming economic data releases from both the US and Japan are set to influence the USD/JPY pair's direction prediction. In the US, key indicators such as the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, HPI m/m, CB Consumer Confidence, and Richmond Manufacturing Index will be released. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y is expected to show a slight decrease from 6.8% to 6.2%, indicating a cooling in the housing market. Meanwhile, the CB Consumer Confidence index is expected to rise to 100.9 from a previous 100.3, suggesting improved consumer sentiment. The Richmond Manufacturing Index is projected to show an improvement from -17 to -14, which still indicates contraction but at a slower pace. These mixed data points could create a volatile trading environment for the USD.
On the Japanese side, the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) y/y is forecasted to slightly decrease from 3.0% to 2.9%, signaling a potential slowdown in price pressures; which stands as an important forecast element for this fore pair. The BOJ Core CPI y/y is expected to remain stable at 2.1%, suggesting persistent inflation concerns within Japan. The stable inflation rate and the recent dovish stance of the Bank of Japan could continue to exert downward pressure on the JPY.


Price Action:
The USD/JPY pair is forming a bearish flag pattern on the H4 chart after a significant bearish wave, which suggests a potential continuation of the downward trend. The price is currently consolidating within this pattern, and a breakout to the downside could accelerate the bearish momentum. However, the presence of bullish technical indicators points to a possible short-term corrective wave.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 41.70, indicating bearish sentiment, yet it is not in the oversold territory, suggesting room for further downside before a reversal might occur.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The Stochastic is approaching the 70 level, indicating potential for a bullish wave in the short term if it crosses above this threshold. This could signal a temporary upward correction within the broader bearish trend.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The nearest support is at the lower trendline of the bearish flag pattern, around 144.00. A break below this level could see the pair testing the next support near 142.50, which aligns with previous lows.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at the upper trendline of the bearish flag, around 145.00. A break above this level could target the next resistance at 146.50, potentially invalidating the bearish flag pattern and signaling a bullish reversal.



Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/JPY H4 chart suggests that the pair is consolidating within a bearish flag pattern, with potential for further downside if key support levels are breached. Traders should closely monitor the upcoming economic data releases from both the US and Japan, as these could provide the catalyst for the next major move. Given the mixed signals from technical indicators and fundamental outlook, traders should be prepared for both bearish and short-term bullish scenarios, adapting their strategies accordingly to the evolving market conditions.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
08.27.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 28.08.2024






Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD pair, reflecting the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar, is currently navigating through various economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the United States. In the Eurozone, inflation data has presented a mixed picture. Germany's Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in flat at 0.0% for the month, below expectations of a 0.3% increase, suggesting subdued inflationary pressures in Europe's largest economy. Meanwhile, Spain's Flash CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, which is below the anticipated 2.8%, indicating lower inflationary momentum than expected. These figures suggest that inflation concerns might be less pronounced in the Eurozone, possibly leading to a more dovish stance from the European Central Bank.


On the US side, economic indicators such as the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) q/q showed a stable 2.8% growth rate, aligning with market expectations. This stability is indicative of a resilient economic outlook in the US. Additionally, the Unemployment Claims remained consistent at 232K, further reinforcing a stable labor market. The Preliminary GDP Price Index, also stable at 2.3%, aligns with market forecasts, indicating controlled inflation in the US. These stable economic indicators in the US might support the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance, impacting the USD's strength relative to the Euro.


Price Action:
On the H4 timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has experienced a notable bullish wave, driving the price higher towards key resistance levels. Recent price action suggests that this bullish momentum may be waning, as indicated by candlestick patterns that show indecision or possible reversal near these resistance levels. A bearish correction could be on the horizon, particularly if the bullish momentum fails to break through the established resistance.



Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows that Tenkan-sen (blue line) is about to cross below Kijun-sen (red line), a bearish signal suggesting potential trend reversal. The price has been trading above the cloud, indicating an uptrend, but the potential Tenkan-Kijun crossover is a warning of a shift in momentum.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is showing a negative divergence, where the price makes higher highs, but the RSI fails to confirm those highs, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Currently, RSI is at 55.8787, which is in the neutral zone but leaning towards overbought conditions.

Volume Analysis: The volume has not significantly supported the recent bullish wave, implying that the upward momentum might lack the strength to sustain a further rally. Lower volume during price increases often indicates potential exhaustion of buying interest.



Support and Resistance:

Support: The nearest resistance level is at 1.1187, which is a recent high and could serve as a barrier for further upward movement. A break above this level could signal the continuation of the bullish trend.

Resistance: Key support levels to monitor include 1.1100, near the base of the Ichimoku cloud, and further below at 1.0975, where a significant Fibonacci retracement level lies.



Conclusion and Consideration:

The EUR/USD pair on the H4 chart is showing signs of a potential bearish correction following a strong bullish wave. Negative divergence in the RSI, a potential bearish Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen crossover in the Ichimoku Cloud, and low volume support suggest that the bullish momentum may be fading. Traders should look for confirmation of a reversal through price action around the current resistance level before considering short positions. Profit-taking could be aimed at key support levels like 1.1100 and 1.0975, using tight stop-losses to manage risk effectively.


Disclaimer: The EUR/USD analysis provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information. Always consider risk management strategies and consult with a financial advisor if necessary.

FXGlory
28.08.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.29.2024

Time Zone: GMT
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD) is experiencing potential volatility due to key economic events scheduled today. In the US, the market will closely watch Raphael Bostic's speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, where his comments may provide insights into future monetary policy directions, affecting the USD's strength. Moreover, important data releases like the GDP Second Release and Unemployment Claims are expected, which can offer clues about the US economy's health and labor market. On the AUD side, no major economic releases are scheduled for today, which may keep the currency influenced primarily by external factors, especially from the USD.


Price Action:
The AUDUSD forex pair is showing a bullish trend on the H4 chart. The pair is trading within an ascending channel, with the recent candles moving towards the upper boundary. The last two candlesticks have shown positive movement, with the most recent candle being bullish, indicating sustained upward momentum. The AUD/USD price is currently moving between the 61.8% and 100% Fibonacci retracement levels, edging closer to the 100% mark. This suggests a strong upward bias, with the potential to test higher resistance levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands have tightened, indicating reduced volatility and a potential buildup for a breakout. The price has been trading in the upper half of the bands and is now near the upper band, suggesting that the bullish momentum is still intact. This position implies a higher probability of further upward movement in the AUD USD price. However, traders should watch for any signs of reversal as the price approaches the upper band limit.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is positioned above the signal line, and the histogram is showing positive but decreasing momentum. This indicates that while the bullish trend persists, the strength behind the movement is diminishing. Forex traders should watch for any potential crossover, which could signal a shift in momentum and a possible price correction in the AUD/USD pair.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 61.23, which is below the overbought threshold of 70. This suggests that there is still room for upward movement before the AUD-USD reaches overbought conditions. The RSI supports the ongoing bullish trend and indicates that the market is not overly stretched.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have shifted below the price, indicating a bullish trend. This shift supports the upward movement, with the dots acting as potential support levels. As long as the Parabolic SAR remains below the price, the bullish bias in the AUD USD is likely to continue.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The immediate support is at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, around 0.67100, followed by stronger support near 0.66865, which aligns with the 50% retracement level.
Resistance: The primary resistance is at the 100% Fibonacci retracement level, approximately 0.68345. If the price breaks above this level, the next target could be the upper boundary of the ascending channel.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUDUSD pair on the H4 chart shows continued bullish momentum, underpinned by positive price action and supported by the technical indicators like Bollinger Bands, MACD, RSI, and Parabolic SAR. While the trend remains upward, caution is advised due to the tightening Bollinger Bands and the decreasing momentum shown by the MACD histogram. Upcoming economic events and data releases, especially from the US, could introduce volatility and influence price movements. Traders should monitor these developments closely and consider employing risk management strategies to navigate potential market fluctuations.


Disclaimer: This AUDUSD analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information.

FXGlory
08.29.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EUR/CAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.30.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The upcoming economic data releases from both the US and Japan are set to influence the USD/JPY pair's direction prediction. In the US, key indicators such as the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, HPI m/m, CB Consumer Confidence, and Richmond Manufacturing Index will be released. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y is expected to show a slight decrease from 6.8% to 6.2%, indicating a cooling in the housing market. Meanwhile, the CB Consumer Confidence index is expected to rise to 100.9 from a previous 100.3, suggesting improved consumer sentiment. The Richmond Manufacturing Index is projected to show an improvement from -17 to -14, which still indicates contraction but at a slower pace. These mixed data points could create a volatile trading environment for the USD.

On the Japanese side, the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) y/y is forecasted to slightly decrease from 3.0% to 2.9%, signaling a potential slowdown in price pressures; which stands as an important forecast element for this fore pair. The BOJ Core CPI y/y is expected to remain stable at 2.1%, suggesting persistent inflation concerns within Japan. The stable inflation rate and the recent dovish stance of the Bank of Japan could continue to exert downward pressure on the JPY.


Price Action:

The USD/JPY pair is forming a bearish flag pattern on the H4 chart after a significant bearish wave, which suggests a potential continuation of the downward trend. The price is currently consolidating within this pattern, and a breakout to the downside could accelerate the bearish momentum. However, the presence of bullish technical indicators points to a possible short-term corrective wave.



Key Technical Indicators:

Support Levels: The immediate support is at 1.4881. A break below this level could see the pair testing lower support zones, which may align with historical lows.

Resistance Levels: The immediate resistance is the descending trend line. A successful breakout above this line, confirmed with a close above 1.4932, could indicate a shift to a bullish phase, targeting higher resistance areas.



Support and Resistance:

Support Levels: The nearest support is at the lower trendline of the bearish flag pattern, around 144.00. A break below this level could see the pair testing the next support near 142.50, which aligns with previous lows.

Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at the upper trendline of the bearish flag, around 145.00. A break above this level could target the next resistance at 146.50, potentially invalidating the bearish flag pattern and signaling a bullish reversal.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The EUR/CAD H4 chart suggests that while the pair is in a bearish trend, technical indicators are showing signs of a potential short-term reversal due to bullish divergence and oversold conditions. Fundamental factors, including weaker-than-expected Eurozone inflation data and slightly weaker Canadian GDP figures, could provide mixed influences on the pair. Traders should closely monitor the price action around the descending trend line for potential breakout opportunities, either to the upside for a buy signal or to the downside below the support level for a sell signal.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.

FXGlory
08.30.2024

 

[Kgotso Mapane]

EURJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 31.07.2024



View attachment 29272


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)



Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/JPY pair is influenced by various fundamental factors, including economic indicators from the Eurozone and Japan. For the Euro (EUR), recent data from the Eurozone's economic performance, particularly GDP growth and inflation rates, are pivotal. Reports from the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding monetary policy also play a crucial role. For the Japanese Yen (JPY), key indicators include the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and the Bank of Japan's stance on monetary policy. The overall economic health and consumer confidence in both regions are significant drivers for the EUR/JPY pair.



Price Action:
The EUR/JPY H4 chart shows a bearish trend, with the recent price action forming lower highs and lower lows. The pair's price has broken below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a bearish sentiment. The EUR/JPY pair has recently found support near 164.15 and resistance around 168.01. The formation of a descending pattern suggests further downside potential unless a strong reversal signal emerges.



Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud: The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud on the EUR/JPY H4 chart, indicating a bearish trend. The Tenkan-sen is below the Kijun-sen, reinforcing the bearish outlook for this pair. The Chikou Span is also below the price, further confirming the bearish sentiment for EUR against JPY.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram is negative, indicating bearish momentum. The recent contraction of the histogram suggests a potential weakening of the bearish momentum.



Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:

The key support level is at 164.15, which has been tested multiple times and has held.

Resistance Levels:

The primary resistance level is at 168.01, with another significant level at 166.08.



Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/JPY technical analysis on the H4 chart exhibits a strong bearish trend supported by the Ichimoku Cloud and MACD indicators. The EUR/JPY price action suggests a continuation of the downward movement unless a significant reversal signal occurs. Traders should watch for any breakouts above the resistance level of 168.01 or below the support level of 164.15 for potential trade opportunities. It's essential to monitor upcoming economic data releases for the Euro and the Yen, as these can impact the pair's direction. As always, employing proper risk management strategies, including stop losses, is crucial in this volatile market.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.



FXGlory
31.07.2024

Great analysis

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.03.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing notable fluctuations influenced by a mix of European economic data and US market dynamics. Today's EURUSD calendar includes significant releases like the Real Retail Sales from Germany and the French General Budget Outcome, both pivotal in shaping the Euro's trajectory. Concurrently, the speech by Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is highly anticipated, with potential implications on the Euro's strength depending on the tone and content regarding future monetary policy. Across the Atlantic, the US market awaits the PMI data, which is a critical economic health indicator. Such data can directly impact the USD's strength against a backdrop of global economic uncertainties.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD Price Action has shown a consistent bearish trend on the H4 chart, marked by a descending channel pattern. Recent sessions have recorded a narrow oscillation between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands, indicative of bearish momentum with intermittent stability. The last three candles, specifically bearish, reinforce the downtrend, hinting at potential continued bearish pressure if the upper resistance of the channel holds.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The EUR/USD's price movement within the Bollinger Bands displays a bearish trend, as it hovers between the middle and lower bands. The narrowing of the bands slightly suggests a decrease in market volatility and a potential consolidation phase could be nearing.
Parabolic SAR: Indicative dots positioned above the candles signal continued bearish dominance, aligning with the overall downtrend observed in the price channel.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): With an RSI value at 34.28, the market is nearing oversold territory, suggesting a potential slowdown in the bearish momentum or a forthcoming bullish correction.
%R (Williams Percent Range): The %R indicator at -87.38 further corroborates the strong bearish momentum, as it lies close to the extreme end of its range, signaling that the market might be oversold.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest significant support level is observed around 1.09470, which aligns with historical lows and the lower Bollinger Band.
Resistance: Resistance can be found at approximately 1.11095, coinciding with the channel's upper boundary and the middle Bollinger Band.


Conclusion and Considerations:
The EUR/USD pair is currently in a bearish phase, indicated by both price action and key technical indicators within the H4 timeframe. Investors should remain cautious, as the upcoming economic announcements from both Europe and the United States could inject significant volatility and potentially alter the currency pair's direction. Traders are advised to watch for any breakout above the channel resistance or a bounce from support levels as key signals for short-term trading opportunities.


Disclaimer: The EUR/USD H4 analysis is provided as a general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Financial trading involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Investors should conduct their own research or consult a professional advisor before making any investment decisions. Changes in market conditions can occur rapidly, requiring constant review and adaptation of strategies.


FXGlory
09.03.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

Silver/USD (XAGUSD) H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.05.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
As of the latest market insights, Silver trading against the US Dollar (XAGUSD) on the H4 timeframe shows nuanced movements ahead of significant economic data releases. Today, US economic indicators such as job cut announcements, ADP employment change, and initial jobless claims could sway the USD strength significantly. Favorable reports are expected to bolster the USD, exerting downward pressure on Silver prices. Conversely, weaker data may enhance Silver's appeal as a hedge, pushing prices upward. Investors and traders should remain vigilant to these updates to gauge potential market directions effectively.


Price Action:
On the H4 chart, Silver has been navigating a challenging terrain marked by a descending channel, showcasing a bearish trend that recently attempted a reversal. The Silver USD price action near the middle Bollinger Band indicates a struggle between bears and bulls, with recent candles attempting to break above this resistance. The near-touch of the Fibonacci 50% retracement level suggests a potential shift in momentum if sustained buying pressure continues, pointing to an upcoming test of higher resistance levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Silver price has been predominantly in the lower half of the bands but recently rebounded from the lower band towards the middle. This movement indicates a possible alleviation of the selling pressure, with the current Silver price attempting to breach the middle band—a crucial pivot for further bullish signals.
Parabolic SAR: Recent dots positioned below the candles signify a potential reversal from the prior downtrend. This indicator suggests that the downtrend momentum is losing strength, and a bullish sentiment might be developing, especially as the price approaches the middle Bollinger Band and the Fib 50% level.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): With a reading of 41.93, the RSI indicates that the market is neither oversold nor overbought, leaving room for potential upward movement if buying pressure increases.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line remains below the signal line, indicating ongoing bearish momentum. However, the decreasing histogram bars may suggest that the bearish momentum is weakening, aligning with the potential shift suggested by other indicators.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: Immediate support is found at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, around $27.322, where previous lows have consolidated.
Resistance Levels: Initial resistance is observed at the 38.2% Fibonacci level, near $28.018. A breach above this could test the 50% level at approximately $28.710, which aligns with the middle Bollinger Band.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The Silver/ XAGUSD market on the H4 chart presents a complex scenario, balancing between bearish trends and emerging bullish signals. The approaching economic data from the US could serve as a catalyst for significant price movements. Traders should monitor these indicators closely, considering both the technical setups and external economic factors influencing market dynamics.


Disclaimer: This Silver USD analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their due diligence and consider their financial position before engaging in trades based on this analysis.


FXGlory
09.05.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.06.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCAD pair remains sensitive to key economic releases from both the U.S. and Canada. On the U.S. side, today’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment data will have a major impact on the U.S. Dollar’s strength. Positive employment data can strengthen the Dollar as it signals economic growth and could lead to further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, any hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials, including John Williams and Christopher Waller, will be closely watched for clues on monetary policy direction. On the Canadian side, the upcoming employment and unemployment data are key drivers for the Canadian Dollar. Better-than-expected employment figures can boost the CAD, indicating stronger economic activity in Canada. These releases will likely bring increased volatility to the USD/CAD forex pair.


Price Action:
On the H4 chart, the USD CAD is currently in a bearish trend, trading below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Over the last few sessions, the price has been consolidating between the 1.34827 support and the 1.35562 resistance level. The pair briefly attempted to recover but has since retraced and is now hovering near the lower Bollinger Band. The bearish pressure is strong, though a potential bullish correction could be on the horizon if key support levels hold.


Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The USD-CAD price is in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, indicating bearish pressure. It is trying to move closer to the middle band, signaling a possible consolidation phase. The bands have widened recently, indicating increased volatility, which may precede a breakout in either direction.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have recently flipped above the candles, indicating that the current trend is bearish. Traders should watch for any reversal signals that could emerge if the price moves above key levels.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 45.55, which is below the 50 neutral mark but far from the oversold territory. This suggests that while the bearish momentum is intact, there may still be room for further downside before the market becomes oversold.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is slightly below the zero line, showing weak bearish momentum. The MACD line remains below the signal line, but any potential crossover could indicate the beginning of a bullish correction.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The immediate support is located at 1.34827. A break below this level could open the door for further downside, potentially targeting the next key support at 1.34000.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at 1.35562. If the price manages to break above this level, it could trigger a bullish correction towards the next resistance at 1.36300.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD H4 chart shows a clear bearish bias, with key indicators like the Bollinger Bands, Parabolic SAR, and MACD signaling downward momentum. However, upcoming fundamental data, especially from the U.S. labor market and Canadian employment figures, will likely play a critical role in determining the pair's next move. Traders should remain cautious and monitor support and resistance levels closely, as a break could signal a shift in momentum. Additionally, news from Federal Reserve officials may provide further insight into the USD’s potential strength.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided here is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading Forex involves significant risk, and traders should conduct their own research or consult with a professional before making any trading decisions. Always stay updated on the latest market conditions, as they can change rapidly.


FXGlory
09.06.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.09.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD currency pair is currently influenced by key economic releases from both the Eurozone and the United States. From the USD side, the upcoming Wholesale Inventories report from the Census Bureau will be closely watched. A figure lower than forecast could signal inventory depletion and boost future purchasing power, benefiting the USD. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's Consumer Credit data, which reflects consumer spending confidence, could strengthen the USD if it shows an increase, as rising credit often correlates with consumer optimism. For the Euro, the Sentix Investor Confidence index will be critical. A higher-than-expected figure would indicate optimism in the Eurozone, potentially supporting the EUR. However, a negative result could reflect investor pessimism, putting further pressure on the Euro. These data releases will influence market sentiment and are likely to drive volatility in the EUR/USD pair.


Price Action:
The price action on the EUR/USD H4 chart shows a bearish trend, with the pair experiencing significant downward movement since August 23, 2024. After reaching a low around 1.1032, the pair retraced upwards, but the recovery was halted near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1184. The most recent candles indicate renewed bearish momentum as the pair failed to hold above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1108, suggesting that sellers are still in control. The price is currently consolidating around the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1089. A further decline could push the pair back toward the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1067, and a break below this would likely lead to a retest of the recent low at 1.1032. However, if buyers regain control, a push above 1.1108 could lead to a test of the 61.8% level at 1.1184.


Key Technical Indicators:
Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA): The TEMA is indicating a bearish bias, with the price trading below the short-term moving average, signaling continued downward momentum. As the price hovers near key support levels, traders should watch for a potential bounce or further downside acceleration if the price remains below the TEMA.
Volumes: Volume analysis reveals that sellers have dominated recent sessions, as higher volumes were recorded during the downtrend. However, volumes have started to decrease slightly as the price approaches key support levels, suggesting that bearish momentum may be weakening. A resurgence in volume during the next price movement will be crucial in confirming the direction of the next trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is currently below the zero line, confirming the bearish trend. Although the histogram bars are shrinking, indicating waning downward momentum, the MACD line remains below the signal line, suggesting that the market sentiment is still bearish. A bullish crossover of the MACD and signal lines would be needed to signal a potential trend reversal.
%R Indicator (Williams Percent Range): The %R indicator is in the oversold zone, currently around -80.85. This suggests that the market could be nearing a point of exhaustion in the current bearish move. While oversold conditions often precede a reversal, strong trends can keep the %R indicator in this zone for some time, so traders should look for confirmation before taking long positions.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: The first key support level is at 1.1067, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below this level could open the door to further downside, targeting the recent low at 1.1032, which has provided significant support in recent sessions. If this level is breached, the next psychological support is at 1.1015, where buyers may attempt to step in to prevent further declines.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 1.1108, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, where the price has previously stalled. A breakout above this level would suggest a possible shift in sentiment, targeting the next resistance at 1.1130. The most significant resistance is at 1.1184, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, where sellers are likely to re-enter the market. A close above this level could signal a potential bullish reversal.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD pair remains in a bearish trend on the H4 chart, supported by key technical indicators such as the TEMA and MACD, despite signals of weakening momentum. The upcoming economic releases, particularly from the U.S. Census Bureau and Federal Reserve, as well as the Sentix Investor Confidence report from the Eurozone, will play a pivotal role in determining the next significant price movement. Traders should watch closely for price action around key support and resistance levels, as a break below 1.1067 would indicate continued bearish pressure, while a move above 1.1108 could signal the start of a bullish recovery.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Traders should conduct their own analysis and consider their risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. The forex market can be highly volatile, and unexpected news or events may lead to rapid changes in market conditions.


FXGlory
09.09.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBPAUD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.10.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Upcoming economic data releases from both the UK and Australia will play a crucial role in predicting the direction of the GBP/AUD pair. Key releases for the GBP currency include Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index 3m/y, and the Unemployment Rate. The Claimant Count Change is expected to show an improvement from 135K to 95.5K, suggesting a slight improvement in the UK labor market. Average Earnings Index 3m/y is forecasted to dip from 4.5% to 4.1%, indicating weaker wage growth. The Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.1%, which may keep investor confidence intact but limits any significant bullish move in the GBP.
On the Australian side, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment data, along with the NAB Business Confidence report, is expected to provide insights into the current economic outlook. If both data sets show improving confidence, it could strengthen the AUD in the short term.


Price Action:
The GBP/AUD price line has entered a correction phase after a strong bullish wave. Currently, the price is consolidating above the Ichimoku cloud, which suggests that bullish sentiment may remain dominant in the near future. RSI (Relative Strength Index) is not yet in the overbought area, and the stochastic indicator shows that the bearish momentum is nearly exhausted. Traders should keep an eye on the bearish trend line within this correction phase, as a breakout above this area could signal the continuation of the bullish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI: The RSI is hovering below the overbought level, suggesting more room for upward movement before reaching overextended conditions.
Stochastic: The stochastic oscillator is showing signs of reaching the end of a bearish run, hinting at a potential bullish crossover.
Ichimoku Cloud: The price has broken above the cloud, which is a bullish signal, and could indicate further upside if the price sustains above this area.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The nearest support is at 1.9500, just above the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. A break below this level could signal further bearish correction toward 1.9450.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at the descending trend line formed in the current correction phase. A breakout above 1.9600 could confirm a continuation of the bullish trend, targeting the next resistance around 1.9700.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/AUD H4 chart suggests that while the pair is undergoing a corrective phase, the overall sentiment remains bullish due to the price holding above the Ichimoku cloud. If the price breaks above the current descending trend line during this correction, bulls are likely to take over the market again. Traders should also pay close attention to upcoming GBP and AUD economic data releases, as these can highly influence the pair’s movement in the short term.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.10.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

NZDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.11.2024





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

Upcoming economic data releases from both the U.S. and New Zealand will play a crucial role in determining the future direction of the NZD/USD pair. On the U.S. side, the most anticipated releases include the Core CPI m/m, which is expected to remain steady at 0.2%, and the overall CPI y/y, expected to dip slightly from 2.9% to 2.5%. These inflation figures are significant in shaping the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook and could strengthen or weaken the USD depending on the outcome. Crude Oil Inventories and the 10-y Bond Auction are also on the calendar, with lower oil inventories potentially lifting crude prices, which could influence inflationary expectations.

For New Zealand, the Food Price Index (FPI) is expected to show a modest increase of 0.4%. Although not a major economic indicator, any significant deviation could impact the NZD slightly, especially in the absence of other major economic data. Overall, the combination of U.S. inflation data and New Zealand’s FPI may contribute to a period of volatility for the NZD/USD pair.


Price Action:

The NZD/USD price line recently broke below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a shift to bearish sentiment on the H4 chart. The price action has been forming lower highs and lower lows, a typical characteristic of a downtrend. With the RSI hovering below the 40 level and the stochastic oscillator nearing oversold territory, there is strong potential for continued bearish momentum. Traders should watch for further declines as the bearish structure remains intact, especially if the price fails to break back above the Ichimoku cloud.



Key Technical Indicators:

RSI: The RSI is currently at 38.90, indicating bearish sentiment but not yet oversold. There is room for the pair to continue its downward move before a reversal is likely.

Stochastic: The stochastic oscillator is reading at 29.54 and 41.98, showing potential for a bearish crossover, which could signal continued selling pressure.

Ichimoku Cloud: The price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting that the pair is firmly in a bearish trend. A failure to break back above the cloud could lead to further downside.



Support and Resistance:

Support Levels: The nearest support is at 0.6100, which could act as a crucial level to watch for any bearish continuation. A break below this level may see the price heading toward the 0.6050 region.

Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 0.6175, near the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. A break above this level would signal a potential end to the bearish phase, targeting the next resistance at 0.6200.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The NZD/USD H4 chart signals a clear bearish trend with the price breaking below the Ichimoku cloud and forming lower highs and lower lows. Traders should watch the upcoming U.S. CPI data closely, as any surprises could significantly impact the USD and further drive the pair’s movement. On the technical side, as long as the price remains below the cloud, bearish momentum is expected to continue. A break below the support at 0.6100 could accelerate the decline, while a move back above the resistance at 0.6175 would signal a potential shift in sentiment.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.11.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.12.2024




Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The USD/CAD forex pair represents the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar, with both economies being heavily influenced by commodity prices, particularly oil. Recently, the U.S. dollar has experienced some fluctuations due to upcoming U.S. economic reports, such as unemployment claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI), both of which are crucial for gauging inflation and labor market conditions. For Canada, today’s focus is on oil inventories and the performance of the Canadian economy, heavily tied to global oil prices. Any unexpected movements in oil prices can have a direct impact on the Canadian dollar. As of now, the pair is in a tight range as traders await these key economic releases, with cautious sentiment dominating the market.


Price Action:

In terms of price action, the USD CAD pair has shown an upward trend over the past few sessions but is currently consolidating. It recently retraced from the upper Bollinger Band and has now touched the middle band, which appears to act as support. The last two candles are bullish, indicating potential upward momentum. However, the presence of the Parabolic SAR dots above the price suggests caution, as this can indicate selling pressure. The price is fluctuating between the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, with resistance near the 23.6% level. A break above this level could signal a continuation of the upward trend.


Key Technical Indicators:

Bollinger Bands: The price has moved from the upper band towards the middle band, which is acting as a dynamic support. Currently, the price is showing signs of a potential bounce as the last two candles have turned bullish, indicating that the middle Bollinger Band has provided temporary support.
Parabolic SAR: The last three Parabolic SAR points are positioned above the candles, which signals potential downward pressure. However, since the price is still holding above key support levels, traders should watch for a reversal signal if the dots shift below the price.
MACD: The MACD indicator is currently showing weakening bullish momentum. The histogram is positive but shrinking, indicating that while the uptrend remains, momentum has slowed. A potential bearish crossover could occur if this trend continues, signaling a potential downside move.
%R (Williams %R): The %R is currently around -61, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral level suggests there is still room for price action to go either way, depending on market sentiment and upcoming fundamental factors.


Support and Resistance Levels:

Support: Immediate support can be seen near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3550, followed by more substantial support near the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.3520.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3590. A successful breach of this level could pave the way toward the next resistance at 1.3630, which coincides with the recent swing highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The USD-CAD pair is showing mixed signals on the H4 chart. While the price action indicates a possible continuation of the upward trend after bouncing off the middle Bollinger Band, the technical indicators such as the Parabolic SAR and weakening MACD suggest caution. Traders should closely monitor the price’s behavior around the 23.6% Fibonacci level for a potential breakout, while also keeping an eye on upcoming economic releases for both the U.S. and Canada. With upcoming news such as U.S. unemployment claims and Canadian oil inventories, volatility can be expected, which could further influence the pair's direction.


Disclaimer: This analysis is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is important to stay informed of the latest developments.


FXGlory
09.12.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.13.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the EUR/USD forex pair is influenced by key economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the US. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from INSEE and the industrial production data from Eurostat are likely to set the tone for the Euro, reflecting the inflation rate and manufacturing output within the region. On the US side, the Import Price Index and consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan are critical, as they provide early insights into inflation and consumer confidence. A higher-than-expected CPI or industrial output reading in the Eurozone could boost the Euro, while strong import price data or positive consumer sentiment in the US would likely strengthen the USD, adding pressure on the EURUSD pair.


Price Action:
In the H4 timeframe, the EUR/USD pair shows a clear bullish trend after rebounding from the 1.1010 level. The price moved from the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, crossing the middle band, and now has reached the upper band, indicating strong bullish momentum. The recent five candles show steady upward movement, as the pair broke through the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels and is now testing the 50.0% level. If the pair manages to breach this key resistance level, it could move towards the 61.8% or even the 100% Fibonacci retracement level, though a failure to break through 50.0% may signal a potential retracement to the previous support levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price has moved from the lower half of the Bollinger Bands and is now touching the upper band, which reflects strong bullish momentum. The widening of the bands suggests increasing volatility in the market.
Parabolic SAR: The last five Parabolic SAR dots are placed below the candles, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. As long as the dots stay below the price action, bullish momentum is expected to persist.
MACD: The MACD line is approaching the signal line from below, suggesting a potential bullish crossover. This would confirm the upward momentum if the crossover occurs, signaling continued buying pressure.
Williams %R: Currently, the %R is around -0.39, indicating the price is in bullish territory but not yet overbought. There is still room for upward movement before hitting extreme levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: 1.1055 (23.6% Fibonacci), 1.1030, and 1.1010 (recent low).
Resistance Levels: 1.1087 (50.0% Fibonacci), 1.1115 (61.8% Fibonacci), and 1.1150 (100.0% Fibonacci).


Conclusion and Consideration: The EUR USD pair is currently in an uptrend on the H4 chart, with strong bullish signals from both technical indicators and price action. If the pair can break above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, it is likely to continue higher towards the 61.8% level. However, if resistance at the 50.0% level holds, a pullback toward the 38.2% level is possible, where previous support levels may provide a buying opportunity. Traders should keep an eye on today’s fundamental data releases, as they could lead to increased volatility and confirm the direction of the pair.


Disclaimer: The provided EUR-USD analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.13.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.16.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP/USD pair is facing mixed market conditions today as the U.S. dollar is influenced by the release of the New York Manufacturing Index, which serves as a leading indicator of U.S. economic health. A higher-than-forecast reading would likely support the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, in the UK, the Rightmove House Price Index (HPI) is in focus, which measures the change in asking prices for homes. Although the housing sector is less correlated to actual selling prices, it provides an early look into market conditions. With U.S. economic data expected to drive the dollar and UK housing data potentially offering limited support for the pound, traders can expect GBP/USD volatility today.


Price Action:
In the GBPUSD H4 chart, we observe an upward trend, with the price currently trading between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. This signals a continuation of the upward movement after a recent pullback. The GBPUSD price action shows bullish momentum as it attempts to break higher levels, with candles forming higher lows in the last few sessions. The pair appears to be trading within a rising channel, indicating further potential upside if support levels hold.


Key Technical Indicators:
Short SMA (9): The short-term moving average has crossed above the long-term moving average (SMA 17), suggesting bullish momentum in the medium term.
Long SMA (17): The long SMA shows gradual upward movement, reinforcing the continuation of the bullish trend as the price action respects this indicator as a dynamic support.
MACD: The MACD histogram shows growing bullish momentum, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line. This supports the possibility of further upward movement as buying pressure increases.
Volumes: Recent volume data shows increased buying interest, supporting the recent price surge. However, traders should watch for potential exhaustion if volume starts to decline.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The immediate support level is at 1.3070 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), with a stronger base at 1.3040, aligning with the lower boundary of the channel.
Resistance: Key resistance stands at 1.3160 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), followed by 1.3240, which marks the 100% Fibonacci extension.


Conclusion and Consideration:
GBP/USD continues to display bullish momentum, supported by technical indicators like the SMA crossover and MACD’s positive trend. With key support levels holding, the pair is likely to continue its upward trajectory. However, U.S. data releases could play a crucial role in determining the dollar’s strength, which might influence this trend. Traders should monitor upcoming news for both GBP and USD to gauge potential market reactions, particularly if the U.S. data exceeds forecasts.


Disclaimer: This GBP-USD analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s important for traders to conduct their own research before making any trading decisions. Always consider market volatility and news events before entering any trade.


FXGlory
09.16.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

NZD/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.17.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's NZD/USD performance is expected to be influenced by both US and New Zealand economic data. On the US side, several key reports, such as Retail Sales and Factory Output, are scheduled. Strong retail sales data could reinforce expectations of higher US interest rates, boosting the USD. Conversely, weak sales data might support a dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President is also scheduled to speak, and any hawkish remarks might further strengthen the USD. On the New Zealand side, the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction report is due, a critical factor since dairy products play a significant role in New Zealand's export economy. Positive data from the GDT auction could lend some support to the NZD.


Price Action:
In the H4 time frame, the NZD USD pair shows signs of a recovery after a previous downtrend. The price action has been bullish in recent sessions, with 7 out of the last 10 candles closing higher. The recent retracement is bouncing off the 38.2% Fibonacci level and approaching the 50.0% level. This indicates that the pair is regaining strength after a short pullback, signaling potential bullish continuation.


Key Technical Indicators:
MA Short (9): The short-term 9-period moving average has crossed above the 17-period long moving average, suggesting that upward momentum is building.
MA Long (17): The 17-period moving average is now acting as dynamic support, confirming that bullish momentum is gaining strength. The crossover is a classic sign of trend reversal, which aligns with the recent bullish price action.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD line is currently above the signal line, indicating a bullish trend in place. However, the histogram shows slight divergence, suggesting that momentum may slow down in the short term. Traders should monitor closely for any potential bearish crossover, which could signal a trend reversal.
DeMarker (14): The DeMarker indicator currently stands at 0.52, indicating that the market is in a neutral zone with no overbought or oversold conditions. This leaves room for further upward movement before approaching overbought levels, which could support the ongoing bullish trend.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support is at 0.6155, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci level, followed by 0.6100 as a key psychological level.
Resistance: The first resistance is at 0.6200 near the 50.0% Fibonacci level, with the next level at 0.6230 at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The NZD/USD pair is exhibiting bullish momentum on the H4 chart, supported by positive price action and a moving average crossover. However, key fundamental events for both the USD and NZD are scheduled for today, which could introduce volatility. A breakout above the 50.0% Fibonacci level could trigger a continuation of the uptrend, while bearish data from the US might cap gains or lead to a reversal. It is crucial to monitor the upcoming Retail Sales data and GDT auction results, as these will provide further direction for the pair.


Disclaimer: The NZDUSD analysis provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and traders should conduct their own research and stay updated with the latest developments before making trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.17.2024

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.18.2024







Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

Upcoming economic data releases from the US and Australia are significant for understanding potential movements in the AUD/USD pair. From the US, the focus is on the Federal Funds Rate, which is expected to increase from 5.25% to 5.50%. Such a hike could strengthen the USD as higher interest rates usually attract foreign capital. Additionally, the FOMC Economic Projections and Statement will provide deeper insights into future monetary policy, which could sway market sentiment significantly. The TIC Long-Term Purchases, indicating foreign investments, jumped from 54.9B to an expected 96.1B, reflecting a robust interest in US financial assets.

From Australia, the Employment Change is set to show a sharp rise from 26.4K to 58.2K, suggesting strong job market conditions, which could bolster the AUD. The Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.2%, supporting a stable economic outlook in Australia.


Price Action:

The AUD/USD price shows a consolidation above the Ichimoku cloud on the H4 chart, indicating a bullish sentiment in the near term. The RSI is above 50 but not yet in the overbought territory, suggesting there is room for upward movement without immediate reversal risks. The Stochastic indicator hints at the end of a bearish phase, potentially signaling an upcoming bullish crossover.



Key Technical Indicators:

RSI: Hovering above 50,ing towards potential upward movements.

Stochastic: Indicating the exhaustion of bearish momentum with a possible bullish turn ahead.

Ichimoku Cloud: The price residing above the cloud supports bullish dominance, suggesting potential further upsides.



Support and Resistance:

Support Levels: The nearest support level is found just above the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud at 0.6600. A drop below this level could lead to further bearish corrections towards 0.6550.

Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is observed at the downward trend line from the recent correction phase. A decisive breakout above 0.6750 could reaffirm the bullish trend, aiming for the next resistance at 0.6800.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The AUD/USD H4 chart points to a bullish continuation as long as the price remains above the Ichimoku cloud. The anticipated breakout above the current descending trend line could usher in renewed bullish momentum. Traders should closely monitor the forthcoming economic data from both the US and Australia, as these will likely drive short-term price action and confirm or adjust the current bullish outlook.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.

FXGlory
09.18.2024