Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD soared above 1.0900 after Trump imposed new tariffs

The EURUSD rate has climbed above 1.0900 following the introduction of new US trade tariffs. Find out more in our analysis for 3 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: US ADP employment data showed an increase of 155 thousand
• Market focus: Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on US trading partners
• Current trend: an uptrend is in place
• EURUSD forecast for 3 April 2025: 1.0800 and 1.0955

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump introduced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with even higher duties targeting key trading partners: 34% on China, 20% on the EU, and 24% on Japan. Additionally, a 25% tariff on foreign cars took immediate effect.

Commenting on the move, Trump described the tariffs as a strategy to support domestic manufacturing and reduce the trade deficit. In response, the EURUSD pair surged as the US dollar came under pressure due to concerns over a potential US economic slowdown triggered by ongoing trade wars.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Friday chaos – Nonfarm Payrolls to shake up Gold (XAUUSD) again

A decline in US Nonfarm Payrolls may boost XAUUSD quotes towards 3,160 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 4 April 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 151 thousand, projected at 137 thousand
• US unemployment rate: previously at 4.1%, projected at 4.1%
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 April 2025: 3,160 and 3,075

Fundamental analysis

According to the XAUUSD forecast for 4 April 2025, US Nonfarm Payrolls may decline to 137 thousand from the previous 151 thousand. If the actual figure aligns with expectations, the market may see heightened volatility and a temporary weakening of the US dollar.

The Nonfarm Payrolls release consistently generates strong market reactions and can either support the US dollar or make it lose ground.

Today’s XAUUSD analysis also considers that the US unemployment rate for March is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. The lack of changes from the previous period would be a neutral factor for the USD.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD remains in the eye of the storm: tariff fears dominate the market

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.0990 on Monday as market chaos continues. Discover more in our analysis for 7 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair is moving more actively than usual
• Investors remain concerned about global trade tensions, although the White House maintains its stance
• EURUSD forecast for 7 April 2025: 1.1146

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is trading around 1.0990 on Monday.

Volatility remains above average. Investors are assessing the impact of Donald Trump’s tariff policy on inflation and economic growth. The global trade war is only escalating.

Despite the market panic, the White House stands firm on its decision to impose retaliatory tariffs. On Sunday, Trump compared the tariffs to medicine you have to take to fix something. Previously, China agreed on a 34% tariff on all US-made goods, which may prompt similar measures from other countries.

The unfolding tariff saga has intensified fears over US inflation and economic growth, complicating the Fed’s policy path. Markets are now pricing in a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts for 2025.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Strong data from Japan keeps USDJPY from rising further

The USDJPY pair is slightly declining, currently trading at 147.70. Find more details in our analysis for 8 April 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Donald Trump announces readiness to begin trade talks with Japan
• Japan posts a record current account surplus in February 2025
• USDJPY forecast for 8 April 2025: 146.25

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is retreating after Monday’s sharp rally, where the pair tested the key resistance level at 148.00. The Japanese yen temporarily weakened against the US dollar amid growing uncertainty around global trade — typically a driver of safe-haven demand.

On the political front, Donald Trump confirmed his readiness to start trade negotiations with Japan following a phone call with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The upcoming talks will address a wide range of issues, including tariffs, currency policy, and state subsidies.

Robust economic data keeps the yen from further weakening. In February 2025, Japan recorded a record current account surplus of 4.0607 trillion yen, driven by strong export growth amid high external demand and a decline in imports due to lower energy prices and subdued domestic consumption.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) rises, supported by the Fed stance and market demand

Gold (XAUUSD) has climbed to 3,028 USD, with safe-haven demand continuing to drive the metal higher. Discover more in our analysis for 9 April 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices continue to recover following recent volatility
• Despite April's dip, Gold (XAUUSD) quotes have gained 13% year-to-date
• XAUUSD forecast for 9 April 2025: 3,046

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose to 3,028 USD on Wednesday amid growing safe-haven demand. The escalating trade war fuels fears of global recession and rising inflation.

The US government confirmed that additional tariffs on imports from multiple countries will take effect today, with no exemptions at this stage.

China faces the steepest tariff hike of 104% after it refused to comply with US demands to lift its retaliatory duties on US goods by the deadline. US President Donald Trump also announced that a significant tariff on pharmaceutical imports is expected soon.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent remains highly volatile: new stress ahead?

Brent crude prices are falling again, sliding towards 64.90 USD after a 4% rally in the previous session. Find more details in our analysis for 10 April 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent gained 4% in the previous session but has now stalled
• Trump’s temporary tariff compromise supported prices, but the outlook remains uncertain, potentially curbing growth
• Brent forecast for 10 April 2025: 64.80 and 64.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices are hovering around 64.90 USD. On Wednesday, prices rose by over 4% as investor sentiment improved following the US decision to pause tariff hikes for most countries.

US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day period during which import tariffs would be lowered to 10% in an effort to support ongoing trade talks. The move helped reduce fears of a full-blown trade war, which could trigger a global recession and suppress oil demand.

However, markets remain cautious as China was excluded from this deal, and its tariff rate was raised to 125%.

The latest data from the US Department of Energy showed a larger-than-expected drop in gasoline and distillate inventories, helping offset a moderate rise in crude oil stockpiles.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Brent Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD hits a three-year high: the US dollar is not in demand

The EURUSD rate is testing the 1.1285 level and setting a new peak at 1.1383, with the market concerned about the impact of the US trade war. Find out more in our analysis for 11 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair hits a three-year high and shows no signs of slowing
• The market remains focused on tariff-related risks and sees reasons for a decline in US GDP
• US core inflation for March gives reason for the Fed to cut interest rates
• EURUSD forecast for 11 April 2025: 1.1384

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate touched the 1.1384 level but is now hovering around 1.1285.

The dominant market driver working against the US dollar is concern over the state of the US economy. Investors fear that aggressive tariffs will slow down US growth despite the current 90-day tariff pause.

US inflation data for March came in mixed. The core CPI rose just 2.8% year-on-year, marking the slowest increase since March 2021. This gives markets further reason to anticipate a rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY falls sharply – yen takes centre stage as safe-haven asset

The USDJPY pair plummeted to 142.41, with chances to reach new lows being high. Find more details in our analysis for 14 April 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair is testing six-month lows and may go lower
• The market is focused on the upcoming US-Japan tariff negotiations
• The Japanese yen is performing strongly as a safe-haven asset
• USDJPY forecast for 14 April 2025: 142.06

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate fell to 142.41 on Monday, approaching its lowest level in six months. Escalating global uncertainty driven by trade conflicts has increased demand for safe-haven assets.

Markets are closely watching the upcoming trade talks between Washington and Tokyo. Japan’s chief negotiator, Akazawa Ryosei, is set to meet this week with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

Japan currently benefits from a reduced 10% tariff rate and aims to secure more favourable terms in ongoing discussions.

The USDJPY forecast is negative.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) holds bullish momentum — US risks keep safe havens in demand

Gold is moving steadily toward 3,220 USD as global demand for safe-haven assets remains high. Full details in our analysis for 15 April 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) continues its upward trend, pausing only for brief consolidations
• Global investors remain focused on safe-haven assets
• XAUUSD forecast for 15 April 2025: 3,246

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading near 3,220 USD on Tuesday.

The primary driver for gold remains the heightened level of market uncertainty linked to US trade policy. While new tariffs are currently on pause and trade talks are ongoing, the Trump administration has shifted focus to auto parts — considering removing them from the list of high-tariff items.

Still, that remains speculative. Meanwhile, attention has shifted to key import sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, which may soon face increased tariffs. These sectors are substantial, and the prospect of new duties has fuelled demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Another solid support for gold comes from expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut — markets are currently pricing in around 86 basis points of easing in 2025. Lower interest rates typically benefit gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD is poised for growth: the market awaits weak US sales

The EURUSD pair is rising aggressively, currently trading around 1.1370. Find out more in our analysis for 16 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The US dollar is declining amid market caution ahead of the Fed chair’s speech
• US March retail sales data is expected today
• Weak data may support further EURUSD upside
• EURUSD forecast for 16 April 2025: 1.1565

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is gaining momentum following yesterday’s bearish correction. Buyers are actively pushing towards the 1.1380 resistance level – a breakout here could open the way to new local highs.

The US dollar is weakening as markets turn cautious ahead of today’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Traders are waiting for signals regarding the Fed’s next steps amid an economic slowdown and persistent inflation concerns.

All eyes are also on today’s US retail sales data for March. The consensus forecast suggests a 0.2% decline, which may add to pressure on the US dollar and further strengthen the ongoing bullish trend in the EURUSD pair.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

OPEC and US sanctions light the fuse – Brent targets new highs

The outlook for Brent appears bullish, with prices gaining momentum amid US dollar weakness and likely to reach the 67.70 USD resistance level. Find more details in our analysis for 17 April 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent crude oil continues its upward move
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (US): previously at 12.5, projected at 2.2
• Brent forecast for 17 April 2025: 67.70 USD

Fundamental analysis

Today’s fundamental analysis for Brent takes into account that prices are rising steadily, trading near 66.85 USD per barrel, its highest level since the start of the month.

The recent rally is driven by new US sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports, including penalties on a Chinese refinery. Prices are also supported by additional voluntary oil output cuts announced by some OPEC members, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan.

According to the forecast for 17 April 2025, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to drop sharply to 2.2 from the previous 12.5. Such a decline would signal weakening US industrial activity, likely weighing on the US dollar.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Brent Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) resumes rally — next target: 3,405 USD

XAUUSD has broken above the upper channel boundary, signalling an end to the recent pullback. The current quote is 3,327 USD. Full analysis for 18 April 2025 below.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold remains in demand amid uncertainty over US trade policy
• Central banks and private investors continue to accumulate gold
• Goldman Sachs forecasts gold at 3,700 USD by year-end
• XAUUSD forecast for 18 April 2025: 3,405 USD

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD is regaining strength following a short-term pullback, still trading firmly within an upward channel. Demand for gold remains high as market participants seek refuge from ongoing US trade policy uncertainty.

Investors are reacting to shifting signals from the Trump administration, which is reportedly considering new tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. Meanwhile, renewed trade talks with China are back in focus, with Beijing expressing willingness to resume dialogue — albeit under certain conditions.

Analysts highlight continued strong demand for gold from both central banks and private investors. This provides a robust foundation for further price appreciation. According to Goldman Sachs, gold could reach 3,700 USD by the end of 2025.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Crash or opportunity? IMF meeting and falling LEI weigh on USDJPY

The IMF meeting and weak US LEI data may spark a correction in USDJPY before a potential drop to the 140.00 level. Full forecast for 21 April 2025 below.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• IMF Spring Meetings begin today
• US Leading Economic Index (LEI): previous – -0.3%, forecast – -0.5%
• USDJPY forecast for 21 April 2025: 140.00 and 141.50

Fundamental analysis

As of 21 April 2025, markets are focused on the start of the IMF Spring Meetings. Amid persistent global headwinds — including high inflation, geopolitical risks, and sluggish growth in major economies — this event may deliver crucial policy statements regarding global financial stability, support for developing economies, and central banks’ future strategies.

In parallel, attention is on the US Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of 10 indicators designed to forecast turning points in the economic cycle. It includes metrics like jobless claims, new orders, and consumer expectations.

A further decline in LEI to -0.5%, as forecasted, would reinforce fears of a slowing US economy or even a looming recession — potentially undermining the dollar and bolstering safe-haven demand for the yen.

The fundamental backdrop for USDJPY remains fragile, with downside pressure likely to persist.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD surges as pressure mounts on Jerome Powell

The EURUSD rate is gaining for the third consecutive trading session, currently trading at 1.1530. Find out more in our analysis for 22 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• President Donald Trump intensifies criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell
• Traders are concerned about growing tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve
• EURUSD forecast for 22 April 2025: 1.1630

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate continues to rally after rebounding from the 1.1475 support level. Pressure on the US dollar has increased following fresh verbal attacks by President Donald Trump on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. On Monday, Trump escalated his calls for immediate rate cuts.

Market participants are increasingly concerned about the rising tension between the White House and the Fed. Trump’s actions could be perceived as an attempt to pressure the Fed’s independence, with speculation around a possible replacement of Powell adding to uncertainty and fear in the market, undermining confidence in the US dollar.

Additional support for the EURUSD rally came from investor disappointment over stalled US-China trade negotiations. Beijing accused Washington of misusing tariffs and warned other nations about entering trade deals with the US, which has increased tensions and further weighed on the US dollar.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team