Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) prices may rise as stock exchanges avoid risk

Gold quotes are awaiting news, hovering around 2,888 USD, with the market in great tension. Discover more in our XAUUSD analysis for 4 March 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices are not rising yet but are poised for a rally
• The capital market will need safe-haven assets in large quantities
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 March 2025: 2,895 and 2,921

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are consolidating around 2,888 USD on Tuesday.

The market is assessing the US steps to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China starting today. China has already responded that it would introduce retaliatory tariffs of 15% on some US goods, including beef and soya beans.

These measures help expand trade wars. They, in turn, will launch a new round of inflationary growth and a slowdown in global economic development, with both factors strengthening the status of Gold as a safe-haven asset.

Yesterday’s statistics showed a slowdown in the growth rate of the US factory activity. This raises concerns that the White House tariffs will undermine the already slowing economy of the country.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY forecast: the pair returned to around 150.00, with US ADP employment in focus

The USDJPY rate hit this year’s new low of 148.10 yesterday before retracing to 150.00. Market participants are awaiting US ADP labour market statistics today. Discover more in our analysis for 5 March 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants are awaiting US employment statistics for February today, with the ADP employment change data scheduled for release
• Current trend: correcting within the downtrend
• USDJPY forecast for 5 March 2025: 151.00 and 148.10

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate hit a new annual low of 148.10 yesterday. The Japanese yen is in demand as market participants expect the Bank of Japan to continue to raise the benchmark interest rate this year amid an unexpected uptick in inflation in Q4 2024 and positive GDP data.

Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) will release US employment statistics for February during the American session today. Stronger-than-expected data (+140 thousand jobs) will support the US dollar and the USDJPY pair may form a local upward reversal. Conversely, weaker-than-forecast figures could push the quotes lower.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD rallies: parity is forgotten

The EURUSD pair is hovering around 1.0806 on Thursday, with the euro reaching the high seen in early November 2024. Find out more in our EURUSD analysis for 6 March 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair hit highs observed in early November 2024
• Germany’s plans and the general positive sentiment about the eurozone outlook support the euro
• EURUSD forecast for 6 March 2025: 1.0820

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate rose to 1.0806, which was last seen by the market on 8 November 2024.

The US dollar is under pressure from a strong euro and evolving consequences of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. New US trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico have provoked retaliatory measures from these countries. This stance raises concerns about escalating trade wars, which could slow down US economic growth.

The market is now awaiting fresh US employment statistics. The ADP data showed that the US private sector added just 77 thousand jobs in February, the smallest gain in seven months. The main reports are due on Friday.

The euro is rising as the 500 billion euro infrastructure fund proposed by Germany and plans to reconsider borrowing rules have improved the eurozone outlook. The ECB meeting is scheduled for today, with the regulator likely to lower the interest rate to 2.65% per annum from the current 2.90%.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY fell to a five-month low: the yen acts as a safe-haven asset

The USDJPY pair is hovering around 147.60 on Friday as the market needs safe-haven assets. Discover more in our analysis for 7 March 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair fell to its lowest level since 8 October 2024
• The market is in dire need of safe-haven assets and favours the yen
• USDJPY forecast for 7 March 2025: 147.29

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate fell to 147.60, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid the escalating global trade war and the volatile tariff policy of US President Donald Trump.

The market is concerned about the possible impact on the US economy, which prompts investors to shift from the US dollar to the yen and Swiss franc.

Domestically, the JPY position and Japan’s government bond yields strengthened on expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates this year.

This week, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said that the regulator could raise rates further if its economic forecasts prove true. Such comments could be interpreted as the beginning of a withdrawal from a sweeping monetary easing program.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Bank of Canada rate cut expectations support USDCAD growth

The USDCAD pair is slightly declining, with the price currently at 1.4365. Discover more in our analysis for 10 March 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• Canada’s economy added only 1 thousand jobs, falling short of the expected 20 thousand
• Expectations of a Bank of Canada key rate cut rose due to weak employment data
• USDCAD forecast for 10 March 2025: 1.4495

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate is correcting after Friday’s surge, primarily driven by a mixed US employment report. In February, the country’s economy added 151 thousand jobs, below the forecast of 160 thousand, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.0%, and wage growth slowed to 0.3%.

However, the Canadian labour market was in an even more challenging situation. Unemployment remained at 6.6%, with the economy creating only 1 thousand jobs, falling short of the expected 20 thousand.

Such a sharp slowdown compared to the sustainable growth seen since August 2024 heightened expectations of a 25-basis-point Bank of Canada key rate cut at the meeting this week. According to the USDCAD forecast for today, such expectations may support further growth of the currency pair despite the current correction.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDCAD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent remains under pressure due to increased output and problems in China

Brent quotes are slightly rising, currently standing at 68.95 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 11 March 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• An economic slowdown in China raises concerns about future oil demand
• The increase in US and Canadian rigs boosts oil supply
• Brent forecast for 11 March 2025: 66.65

Fundamental analysis

Brent quotes are correcting after rebounding from the 68.45 USD support level. Prices are under pressure from global trade tensions, the expected increase in OPEC+ supply, and the uptick in oil production in North America. In February, US rigs added 8 units, reaching 590 rigs, while rigs in Canada increased by 38 units to 247.

An additional negative factor is the weakening of the Chinese economy, the largest oil consumer. Rising deflation in the country raises concerns about future oil demand. All these factors combined create an unfavourable environment for oil quotes, which, as part of the Brent price forecast, increases the risks of its further decline.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Brent Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY is under pressure amid expectations of tighter BoJ monetary policy

The USDJPY pair is rising, with the price currently at 148.40. Discover more in our analysis for 12 March 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s business sentiment index for large manufacturing companies decreased
• Weak statistics may heighten expectations of further BoJ monetary tightening
• USDJPY forecast for 12 March 2025: 145.65

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is rising for the second consecutive session, with buyers aiming to test the crucial resistance level at 148.50. The US dollar is gaining support amid expectations of the latest inflation data.

Despite the current growth, the currency pair remains under pressure due to uncertainty in Trump’s tariff policy and increasing risks of the US recession. The yen receives additional support from rising wages in Tokyo, which helps offset inflationary costs, reduce the labour shortage, and increase consumer spending, creating conditions for a possible Bank of Japan interest rate hike.

Meanwhile, Japan’s business sentiment index for large manufacturing companies declined to -2.4% in Q1 2025 after rising to 6.3% in the previous quarter. The deterioration of the indicator and weak statistics could fuel expectations for further BoJ monetary tightening, which supports a bearish forecast for USDJPY for today.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) rises amid easing US inflation

XAUUSD prices are strengthening on Thursday, currently standing at 2,944 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 13 March 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Easing US inflation heightens expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut
• The growing likelihood of a Fed rate cut supports Gold prices
• XAUUSD forecast for 13 March 2025: 2,970

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are rising for the third consecutive day as continued uncertainty about tariffs boosts demand for safe-haven assets. The precious metal is additionally supported by easing US inflation, which has fuelled expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

US consumer prices rose by 2.8% year-on-year in February, below 3.0% in January and analysts’ average forecasts of 2.9%.

Easing inflation increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, bolstering Gold prices and indicating the potential for their further growth, according to the XAUUSD forecast for 13 March 2025.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD forecast: the pair corrected towards 1.0800

The EURUSD rate is undergoing a moderate downward correction, falling to 1.0800. Today, the market is focused on the eurozone’s inflation statistics. Find out more in our EURUSD analysis for 14 March 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the US Producer Price Index showed no month-on-month inflation growth in February (0%)
• Current trend: correcting within the uptrend
• EURUSD forecast for 14 March 2025: 1.0875 and 1.0765

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair appears rather confident amid weaker-than-expected US inflation growth in February, with the CPI and PPI below forecast. Today, the market is focused on inflation statistics of the eurozone’s largest countries.

The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Germany, Spain, and France will be released. A more significant uptick in inflation in the leading European economies will help strengthen the euro, while weaker-than-expected data could cause the EURUSD pair to continue a downward correction.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US consumer confidence collapses, EURUSD is set for a leap

The EURUSD pair is correcting, with the price currently at 1.0877. Find more details in our analysis for 17 March 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The US consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since November 2022
• US retail sales data is in the spotlight today
• EURUSD forecast for 17 March 2025: 1.1035

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining slightly on Monday. However, the US dollar remains under pressure due to trade uncertainty and growing concerns about the US economy.

Friday’s data showed a decline in US consumer confidence and a sharp increase in inflation expectations. The consumer confidence index fell to 57.9 points in March from 64.7 in February, reaching its lowest level since November 2022.

Investors are now focused on the release of US retail sales data, which is due today and will provide information on consumer spending. The key event of the week will be the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday, where the interest rate is expected to remain unchanged.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Market is in suspense: where will Brent head after the API report?

In anticipation of the API report, Brent prices are rising and could reach the 72.25 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 18 March 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent crude oil prices are on the rise
• Weekly US crude oil inventories from the American Petroleum Institute (API): previously at 4.247 million barrels
• Brent forecast for 18 March 2025: 70.00 and 72.25

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental Brent analysis for today, 18 March 2025, takes into account that oil prices continue their upward momentum.

Today, 18 March 2025, Brent prices are slightly rising amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and China’s stimulus measures. Brent futures were up 17 cents (0.2%), reaching 71.24 USD per barrel. The US Department of Energy revised its previous forecast, expecting Brent prices to average at 74.22 USD per barrel in 2025.

Despite the current price increase, long-term forecasts take into account a possible decline in Brent prices due to global economic factors.

According to the API, weekly US crude oil inventories rose significantly in the previous reporting period. The Brent analysis for today takes into account that following the data release, the quotes could maintain their upward trajectory and head towards 72.25 USD.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) sets a new record, with prices aiming for 3,050 USD

XAUUSD prices are rising significantly ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, currently standing at 3,043 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 19 March 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Concerns about an economic slowdown support bullish momentum in XAUUSD
• Traders are focused on the Fed decision, which may impact further Gold price movements
• The regulator’s soft stance may fuel demand for the precious metal
• XAUUSD forecast for 19 March 2025: 3,075

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices continue to rise on Wednesday, hitting new all-time highs. Buyers confidently surpassed the 3,037 USD resistance level due to mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Gold remains a key hedging instrument amid economic uncertainty caused by the US tariff policy, with the unstable trading environment only making it more attractive as a safe-haven asset. Investors’ concerns about an economic slowdown and higher recession risks support bullish momentum, which aligns with the XAUUSD forecast for today.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s decision, which will be announced today. If the regulator takes a soft stance, reacting to concerns about the tariff impact on economic growth, this will boost demand for Gold and open the way to the next key resistance level at 3,065 USD.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Can a reversal pattern send down Brent prices?

Brent prices are strengthening, currently standing at 70.99 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 20 March 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• US gasoline and distillate inventories fell to their lowest levels since early 2025
• The Head and Shoulders pattern on the Brent chart indicates a potential price decline
• Brent forecast for 20 March 2025: 66.65

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices continue to rise for the second consecutive trading session. However, buyers cannot surpass the key resistance level at 71.00 USD yet. Brent quotes are supported by US inventory data and escalating tensions in the Middle East, fuelling concerns about possible oil supply disruptions.

Wednesday’s data showed a sharp decline in distillate and gasoline stocks to their lowest levels since early 2025 despite an increase in crude oil inventories. Gasoline stocks decreased by 527 thousand barrels, with distillate inventories down by 2.80 million barrels. At the same time, commercial crude oil reserves in the US rose by 1.75 million barrels last week.

Investors currently continue to assess the prospects for US economic growth. The Federal Reserve reiterated its forecast for two benchmark interest rate cuts this year, which supports the oil market, according to the Brent price forecast.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Brent Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

The Fed holds off on rate cuts: is EURUSD set to collapse?

The EURUSD pair is falling for the third consecutive trading session, with the price currently at 1.0823. Find out more in our analysis for 21 March 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Easing concerns about an economic downturn put pressure on the EURUSD rate
• The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and reiterated plans for two more cuts this year
• The EURUSD pair is testing the lower boundary of a Double Top reversal pattern
• EURUSD forecast for 21 March 2025: 1.0680

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining as the Federal Reserve has signalled that it is in no rush to lower interest rates. The US dollar receives additional support from easing concerns about an economic slowdown amid US President Donald Trump’s active trade policy. Furthermore, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell called the imposed tariffs a temporary measure and emphasised that the regulator does not rush to ease monetary policy further.

On Wednesday, the Fed held rates steady and reiterated its forecast for two quarter-percentage-point cuts this year, which is in line with the median forecast. Traders are seeing signs of a potential EURUSD reversal, according to today’s forecast. The quotes are currently testing a key support level, a breakout below which may push the currency pair lower.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team