Forex News Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

The Dollar Rises Amid Accelerating Economic Growth in the United States

The American currency received support from strong data from the United States. Thus, in the third quarter, gross domestic product increased by 4.9% after increasing by 2.1% earlier, with a forecast of 4.2%, which was the largest increase since the fourth quarter of 2021, reflecting easing risks of a recession. At the same time, the positive dynamics of the indicator partially offsets the results of the hawkish policy of the US Federal Reserve: the regulator’s meeting will take place next week, which is also the reason for the current correction.

Optimism from faster growth rates of the American economy was partially offset by statistics on the labour market: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of October 20 increased from 200.0k to 210.0k, while experts expected 208.0k, and the number repeated requests for the week of October 13 — from 1.727 million to 1.790 million, with expectations at 1.740 million.

EUR/USD

According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the pair is consolidating near 1.0565, preparing to end the week with a slight decline. The day before, quotes managed to interrupt the active development of the bearish trend, while the news background remained ambiguous and investors assessed the results of the ECB meeting. As expected, the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 4.50%, noting that further monetary policy will be determined by statistical data, which does not exclude a possible increase in the value in the future. At the same time, the ECB said that inflation in the region continues to decline, but will most likely remain above target levels for a long time.

The immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0581, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise towards 1.0606. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0517, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0500.

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[FXOpen Trader]

Watch FXOpen's 23 - 27 October Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: THE YEN WEAKENS, NASDAQ ENTERS CORRECTION, GOLD STABILISES

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• USD/JPY: New High of the Year #usdjpy
• The NASDAQ Index Officially Enters Correction #nasdaq
• Price of Gold Stabilises Near Its 5-month Highs #gold
• Google report crashes stock price #google

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenuk #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Price of Oil in Tense Anticipation

Monday's opening came without any surprises. Despite the news that the Israeli army is moving to a new phase of the operation in Gaza, the price of Brent oil did not change much, trading started around the middle of the Friday candle.

The chart shows that the price of Brent oil has fluctuated between USD 86.60 and USD 89.10 since October 24th. At the same time, the MACD indicator shrank near the zero line, which is typical for flat markets. However, it can hardly be said that bidders are calm.

On the one hand, they are closely monitoring news from the Middle East, where escalation could provoke supply disruptions and sharply increase the price of oil. On Sunday, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the US sees an increased risk of the conflict spreading to other parts of the Middle East region.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is expected to make a decision on interest rates this week. The event is scheduled for Wednesday evening, and it can greatly change the current balance of supply and demand.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD Remains At Risk While EUR/GBP Turns Green

GBP/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.2285 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is rising and might climb above the 0.8720 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is showing bearish signs below the 1.2200 support.
• There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2155 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is gaining pace and trading above the 0.8700 zone.
• There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.8720 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair attempted a fresh increase above 1.2200, as discussed in the previous analysis. However, the British Pound failed above 1.2285 and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar.

There was a clear move below 1.2200 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bears pushed the pair 1.2155. Finally, there was a spike below the 1.2110 support zone. A low was formed near 1.2069 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

There was a minor move above the 50-hour simple moving average and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2284 swing high to the 1.2069 low.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near a key contracting triangle at 1.2155. The next major resistance is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2284 swing high to the 1.2069 low at 1.2200.

A close above the 1.2200 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2285. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2350.

On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2110. If there is a downside break below the 1.2110 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2075 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2020. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2000 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Middle East Tensions and Fed Meeting Influence Oil Prices. Is $250 Per Barrel Likely?

Amidst rising tensions in the Middle East, oil markets have experienced volatility. Israel's deployment of ground forces into the Gaza Strip has not led to the expected surge in oil prices, as investors remain focused on the upcoming US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

Global benchmark Brent crude oil price saw a decline of 1.06%, falling to $89.52 per barrel. Simultaneously, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price dropped by 1.16%, reaching $84.55 per barrel.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Economic Calendar: BoE and Fed Meetings, Apple Earnings, and US Labour Data

On Wednesday (21:00 GMT+3), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Analysts' opinions are divided. Some believe that the surge in bond yields signals that the Fed will likely keep the rate at 5.5%. Others say strong GDP and PCE data released on Friday strengthened the case for the Fed to keep rates higher for an extended period. Therefore, one more rate hike may occur before this tightening cycle is over. The hawkish tone of the central bank may contribute to the growth of the US dollar and decline in the S&P 500 index, which has fallen over 10% since late July when it reached a one-year-high.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

AMZN Pulls NASDAQ Up, Expecting Help from AAPL

Amazon's quarterly report provided a ray of light in a gloomy environment for the tech-heavy US stock market, as the NASDAQ index fell last week to levels last seen in May.

→ AMZN EPS: actual = USD 0.94, expected = USD 0.58
→ Gross revenue: actual = $143.5 billion, expected = $141 billion
→ For the Q4, AMZN expects revenue of USD 160-167 billion
→ Revenue from Amazon Web Services grew by 12.3% year on year
→ Advertising revenue increased by 26%

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

USD/JPY Analysis: Playing with Fire Continues

Yesterday, the Nikkei newspaper reported that the Bank of Japan is considering adjusting its yield curve control (YCC) policy.

This provoked a strengthening of the yen (1). The USD/JPY rate dropped to a two-week extreme of 148.8 per US dollar in anticipation of news from the Bank of Japan.

The news followed this morning (2). The Bank of Japan kept interest rates at -0.1% and also said the 1% ceiling on the benchmark 10-year yield would be an upper bound rather than a hard limit.

As a result of the Bank's decision, the USD/JPY rate returned to the area above 150 yen per US dollar.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

FTSE 100 Sees Modest Gains Despite BP's Earnings Dip and GBP Slump

In the early hours of trading, the FTSE 100 exhibited slight gains, although BP PLC's underwhelming performance during this earnings season limited further progress.

At 8:15 am, London's primary index rose by 7.44 points, marking a 0.1% increase and reaching 7,334.83, while the FTSE 250 experienced a more substantial increase of 64.64 points, equating to a 0.4% uptick and culminating at 17,082.23.

BP encountered a 4.1% decline after failing to meet City expectations for third-quarter profits. Weak results in gas marketing overshadowed the company's robust performance in oil trading. Adjusted net income for the third quarter was reported at $3.29 billion, down from $8.15 billion in the previous year but surpassing the $2.59 billion recorded in the prior period.

Richard Hunter, the head of markets at Interactive Investor, noted that there might be some room for disappointment, particularly in light of the market's anticipation of a $4.01 billion figure.

Vodafone Group PLC saw a 0.5% increase after confirming the sale of its Spanish business for a sum of up to €5 billion. Spectris PLC experienced a more notable rise of 2.8% following its forecast of top-end operating profits.

Rolls-Royce emerged as another strong performer, enjoying a 3.2% increase in its stock value. This surge was propelled by Barclays' decision to upgrade its rating from neutral to overweight while setting a price target of 270p.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Resumes Drop, USD/JPY Extends Surge

EUR/USD is again moving lower below the 1.0615 support. USD/JPY surged and broke the 151.00 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0675 support zone.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0570 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 150.00 and 151.00 levels.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 149.85 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained in a bearish zone below the 1.0700 level, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The Euro declined below the 1.0615 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.0595 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. More importantly, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0570. A low is formed near 1.0557 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0675 swing high to the 1.0557 low at 1.0585.

The next key resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0595. The first key resistance is the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0675 swing high to the 1.0557 low at 1.0615.

A clear move above the 1.0615 level could send the pair toward the 1.0675 resistance. An upside break above 1.0675 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0750.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0560. The next key support is at 1.0525. If there is a downside break below 1.0525, the pair could drop toward 1.0500. The next support is near 1.0485, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

USD/CAD Analysis: New High of the Year

As the chart shows, yesterday, the USD/CAD rate exceeded 1.389 for the first time in 2023. This happened against the backdrop of news regarding the economies of the USA and Canada:

→ Statistics Canada estimates that GDP contracted in the third quarter. Technically, it can be stated that the Canadian economy has entered a technical recession, as this is the second consecutive negative change in GDP for the quarter.
→ The US Employment Cost Index rose 1.1% in the third quarter after rising 1.0% in the second quarter, the Labour Department reported Tuesday. This is a sign of a strong labour market, but at the same time, it indicates the preconditions for rising inflation, since the costs to the employer may fall on the consumer.

How the Fed assesses inflation will become known today at 21:30 GMT+3 from Powell’s speech. Also, volatility in the USD/CAD market may increase the speech of Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem at 23:15 GMT+3.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Bank of England's November Interest Rate Decision and Its Potential Impact on the Pound

The British pound faces a crucial test as the Bank of England (BoE) prepares to announce its November interest rate decision. The outcome could significantly influence the pound's value, but several factors come into play.

If all members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote to maintain the current interest rate, and there are no substantial alterations to inflation and growth forecasts, the pound may remain relatively unaffected. This decision aligns with market expectations and is unlikely to cause significant ripples in financial markets.

However, for forward-looking observers, the key focus will be on the guidance provided in the policy statement and the forecasts outlined in the Monetary Policy Report.

Some market sentiment suggests that the BoE might aim to maintain its 'high-for-longer' message, ensuring it remains the primary takeaway from November's policy statement. Such a message could lend support to the pound.

In recent times, there have been no upward adjustments to the base rate, accompanied by indications that rate cuts are not on the immediate horizon. This message may offer some upside for GBP, especially given the already modest expectations for further tightening.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

S&P 500 Analysis: Powell Adds Bullish Momentum

As expected, the Fed left the rate unchanged. Market participants' attention was focused on Powell's press conference, as he said:
→ Risks have now become almost balanced;
→ Inflation expectations are at a good level.

The media publishes the opinions of experts who generally agree that although Jerome Powell has not ruled out the possibility of another rate increase, he does not seem to be very supportive of this idea. So the Fed is not as aggressive as it could be.

As a result, the probability of a rate hike in December has dropped to 20%, and the probability that the rate hike cycle has ended is at 70%.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Bitcoin Updates Its Maximum for the Year

The cryptocurrency market showed a correlation with the stock market, gaining bullish momentum amid softening rhetoric from the Federal Reserve.

The price of the main cryptocurrency reached USD 35,900 for the first time in 18 months.

Wherein:
→ the positivity is also due to expectations that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a Bitcoin ETF. According to analysts at Bernstein (an asset management firm), this could happen by the first quarter of 2024.
→ according to the same analysts, the price of Bitcoin could reach USD 150k by 2025;
→ Jurrien Timmer, director of global macroeconomics at Fidelity, called bitcoin a commodity currency or exponential gold that aims to be a store of value and a hedge against monetary depreciation.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

The Franc May Continue to Strengthen amid Low Inflation

Today it became known about the level of inflation in Switzerland. Compared to the US, UK, and other countries, Switzerland can boast of a CPI of only 0.1%. The minimal increase in prices is due to an increase in fuel costs due to the rise in oil prices in the second half of the year. Thus, the country’s economy provides more arguments in favor of the protected harbor status.

On October 5, we wrote that the Swiss franc was near an important resistance, forming an AB double top. After this, the rate fell by 2.5% to form the October low, and now the chart provides a new piece of information for analysis, in particular about the 0.909 level, which acts as an important resistance.

The USD/CHF price has interacted with it before (as shown by the arrows), but note:
→ the level was able to stop the sharp increase on October 31;
→ did not allow the price to reach the upper boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ the price only briefly stayed higher. The bulls were unable to gain a foothold above 0.909, and the rate fell to the lower border of the channel.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[cupcake]

might have to long bitcoin right now and hold until 2025, does anyone think this is a good idea or they have a better suggestion?

 

[FXOpen Trader]

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Show Signs of Life

AUD/USD is moving higher and might climb above 0.6450. NZD/USD is also rising and could extend its increase above the 0.5915 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.6350 and 0.6400 levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6425 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is gaining bullish momentum above the 0.5870 support.
• There is a short-term contracting triangle forming with support near 0.5885 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6320 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6350 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

There was a close above the 0.6400 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6455 zone. A high is formed near 0.6456 and the pair is now consolidating gains.

On the downside, initial support is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6318 swing low to the 0.6456 high at 0.6425. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near the same zone.

The next support could be the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.6400. If there is a downside break below the 0.6400 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6318 swing low to the 0.6456 high at 0.6350.

Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6320. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6455.

The first major resistance might be 0.6480. An upside break above the 0.6480 resistance might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6550 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6620 resistance zone.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

S&P 500 Analysis: Best Week of the Year, Despite Bad News from Labour Market

According to Friday's data, in the US:
→ the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% (expected = 3.8%). The last time the level was this high was in February 2022.
→ the number of workers employed in the non-agricultural sector increased over the month by only 150k (+178k expected). The last time the figure was below 150k was in February 2021.

Published negative data clearly indicate a cooling of the labour market. Why then did the E-mini S&P-500 futures price end the week up about 5.5%, marking the best week of 2023?

The point is that market participants are increasingly convinced that the Fed will no longer tighten monetary policy. That is, interest rates have peaked, the next step should be to ease them, which will allow companies to grow.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

US Economic Conundrum: Will Rising Interest Rates Affect Spending or the Job Market First?

It is a classic economic puzzle akin to the chicken-and-egg dilemma: as interest rates reach their highest levels in over two decades, which vital component of the economy will give way first—spending or employment?

When consumers tighten their purse strings, businesses experience a drop in revenue, and this, in turn, can lead to layoffs as profits dwindle. Conversely, when companies reduce their workforce, individuals find themselves with less money to spend. It is a delicate dance, and the intricacies of this relationship remain a subject of much debate among economists.

For now, it appears that spending remains robust, and businesses continue their hiring spree. The key question is why? Some contend that the robust job market is driving consumer spending, while others argue that strong consumer demand enables employers to maintain a solid hiring pace.

Consumer spending plays a pivotal role in the US economic landscape, contributing to approximately 70% of the nation's economic output. Consequently, it acts as a litmus test for the overall health and trajectory of the American economy.

Determining which will weaken first—spending or hiring—entails consideration of various nuances. Factors such as the lingering effects of pandemic-era savings, varying degrees of pent-up demand for specific goods and services, and the ever-evolving economic landscape across different business cycles all come into play.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

US Dollar Falls after Weak Employment Data

The US dollar fell after data showed the world's largest economy created fewer jobs than expected last month, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates steady again at its December meeting. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 jobs last month, the data showed. Figures for September were revised down to show 297,000 jobs created instead of 336,000 as previously reported. The US dollar index, a measure of the greenback's exchange rate against six major currencies, fell 0.8% to 105.29. Investors also paid attention to the decline in business activity: the indicator in the services sector from S&P Global in October adjusted from 50.9 points to 50.6 points, while analysts did not expect changes, and the index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) — from 53. 6 points to 51.8 points, which also turned out to be worse than the expected 53.0 points.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing slight growth, developing the bullish momentum formed at the end of last week. The instrument is testing the 1.0735 mark for an upward breakout, updating local highs from September 14. The immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0758, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise towards 1.0798. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0703, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0596.

Investors are focusing on the October US labour market report, published on Friday. In turn, export volumes from Germany lost 2.4% in September after growing by 0.1% in the previous month, while experts expected -1.1%, and imports fell by 1.7% after -0 .3% with a forecast of 0.5%. Thus, Germany's trade surplus in September decreased from 17.7 billion euros to 16.5 billion euros, with expectations at 16.3 billion euros.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.