General EURUSD Chart Analysis

[Frano Grgić]

EURUSD Forecast – $1.07825 Confirmed, $1.08846 Breakout Needed


It was mentioned that the price is in between support and resistance level, between $1.07825 and $1.08846, and it needs to move somewhere outside of this range.

The price did not move outside, but bounced between these two levels.

We can expect that the price will have trouble breaking the $1.08846 resistance level because we have a monthly trendline that is making another resistance for the price.

The target after the price break $1.08846 is $1.09100 – $1.09200, which is the first daily resistance before heading to $1.09800.

 

[CDO Markets]

• EUR/USD advances for the third consecutive session and revisits the 1.0860 area amidst alternating risk appetite trends and humble gains in the greenback. The pair ended the week around 1.0855, still bullish in the daily chart.
• Indeed, the appetite for the risk complex appears somewhat subdued amidst the mild bid bias in the dollar and rising yields on both sides of the ocean on Friday.
• Earlier in the session Producer Prices in Germany contracted 0.4% MoM in December and rose 21.6% over the last twelve months. Later, ECB Chairwoman C.Lagarde will participate in a panel discussion on “Global Economic Outlook: Is this the End of an era?” at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
• The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0855, up for the day with bullish stance in daily chart. The pair still stabilized above 20 and 50 SMA, indicates bullish strength. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA continued accelerating north and developing far above longer ones, suggests bulls not exhausted yet. On upside, the immediate resistance is 1.0890, break above this level will extend the advance to 1.0950.
• Technical readings in the daily chart support the bullish stance. The RSI indicator is above 65. The Momentum indicator stabilizes in positive territory, indicating bullish potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 1.0760 and below this level will open the gate to 1.0710.

 

[CDO Markets]

• The European currency now gives aways some gains after motivating EUR/USD to climb to fresh 2023 peaks near 1.0930 earlier in the session on Thursday. The pair ended the day around 1.0890, still bullish in the daily chart.
• Despite the current knee-jerk, the yearly rally in EUR/USD remains well in place and looks to extend further the recent breakout of the 1.0900 barrier, always on the back of persistent cautiousness among investors ahead of the upcoming FOMC and ECB interest rate decisions.
• In the domestic calendar, Consumer Confidence in Italy eased against consensus to 100.9 in January, while Business Confidence improved to 102.7 in the same period. Across the pond, the flash Q4 GDP Growth Rate will take centre stage seconded by Durable Goods Orders, Initial Claims, New Home Sales, Trade Balance and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.
• The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0890, down for the day with bullish stance in daily chart. The pair still stabilized above 20 and 50 SMA, indicates bullish strength. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA continued accelerating north and developing far above longer ones, suggests bulls not exhausted yet. On upside, the immediate resistance is 1.0930, break above this level will extend the advance to 1.1000.
• Technical readings in the daily chart support the bullish stance. The RSI indicator is above 66. The Momentum indicator stabilizes in positive territory, indicating bullish potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 1.0830 and below this level will open the gate to 1.0760.

 

[axton.khameron]

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[CDO Markets]

• The EUR/USD got rejected from the 1.0900 psychological barrier for two consecutive days and on Friday slipped to the 1.0860 region after data from US cemented the case for a 25 bps rate hike by the Fed. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0866.
• Wall Street finished the week with gains, shrugging off worries about an impending recession in the United States. Thursday’s data cemented the case for a robust economy, with Q4’s expanding by 2.9% QoQ above estimates of 2.6%, while Q3 remained at 3.2%. That sparked conversations of a possible “soft landing” by the US Federal Reserve.
• Across the pond, ECB officials had reiterated they would raise rates at the upcoming meeting on February 2. ECB’s President Christine Lagarde said that the bank would “stay the course” with a 50 bps rate hike in January and the next meeting after that, albeit inflation in the Eurozone slid to 9.2%.
• The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0866, down for the day with bullish stance in daily chart. The pair still stabilized above 20 and 50 SMA, indicates bullish strength. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA continued accelerating north and developing far above longer ones, suggests bulls not exhausted yet. On upside, the immediate resistance is 1.0930, break above this level will extend the advance to 1.1000.
• Technical readings in the daily chart support the bullish stance. The RSI indicator is above 63. The Momentum indicator stabilizes in positive territory, indicating bullish potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 1.0830 and below this level will open the gate to 1.0760.

 

[CDO Markets]

• EUR/USD has been sent onto the backfoot as US stocks slide to fresh session lows led by the tech-focused Nasdaq which is down by more than 1% on Monday. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is losing around 0.2% and dropped from a high of 1.0913 to a low of 1.0850 recently printed.
• It's a big week ahead and the markets are squaring up before major events such as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the US nonfarm, Payrolls as the showdown and grand finale.
• Firstly, the Federal Reserve has been priced in by the markets for a 25 basis point hike but they are also factoring in a benchmark rate to peak at 4.93% in June, up from 4.33% now. there are also calls for the central bank to cut it to 4.52% by December. However, some analysts are of the mind that the market is wrong considering how tight the labour market is. Some Fed officials have been pushing back against market calls for a pivot and said that they will need to keep rates in restrictive territory for a period of time in order to bring down inflation.
• The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0850, down for the day with bullish stance in daily chart. The pair still stabilized above 20 and 50 SMA, indicates bullish strength. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA continued accelerating north and developing far above longer ones, suggests bulls not exhausted yet. On upside, the immediate resistance is 1.0930, break above this level will extend the advance to 1.1000.
• Technical readings in the daily chart support the bullish stance. The RSI indicator is above 61. The Momentum indicator stabilizes in positive territory, indicating bullish potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 1.0830 and below this level will open the gate to 1.0760.

 

[CDO Markets]

• EUR/USD is at a crossroads trading around 1.0865 and slightly up on the day by .015% having ranged between a low of 1.0802 and 1.0874 in what has been a two-way business day ahead of central bank meetings.
• The Federal Reserve showdown on Wednesday is the first major risk for EUR/USD and then the ECB will be on Thursday, but the icing on the cake could be the US nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, especially if there are any surprises to come from that event. The central bank outcomes are expected to see the Federal Reserve hike by no more than 25 basis points and the European Central Bank by 50 basis points.
• The communication leading up to these interest rates decisions has pretty much sealed the deal in this respect and markets are also expecting hawkish rhetoric from the central bank governors, Powell and Lagarde respectively. However, their tone around growth and inflation as well as guidance on further potential hikes could be market-moving. Indeed, the FOMC will want to flag the fact that we are going to see higher rates for a little bit longer, but it’s all about whether or not the market believes that narrative.
• The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0865, up for the day with bullish stance in daily chart. The pair still stabilized above 20 and 50 SMA, indicates bullish strength. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA continued accelerating north and developing far above longer ones, suggests bulls not exhausted yet. On upside, the immediate resistance is 1.0930, break above this level will extend the advance to 1.1000.
• Technical readings in the daily chart support the bullish stance. The RSI indicator is above 61. The Momentum indicator stabilizes in positive territory, indicating bullish potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 1.0800 and below this level will open the gate to 1.0760.

 

[CDO Markets]

• EUR/USD is taking in the upper quarter of the 1.09 area with printing a high of 1.0985 made so far. The Euro rallied from a low of 1.0852 on the day, completing its daily ATR and bulls keep moving in with eyes on the 1.1000 psychological mark.
• EUR/USD has rallied as the market jumps on a dovish tilt at the Federal Reserve, despite inflation ''running very hot''. However, the Federal Reserve chairman is speaking to the press and he has put no timeline on a pivot, with more rate hikes in the pipeline before a pause ''to get the job done.'‘
• The US Dollar plummeted following the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The central bank decided to hike its benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps) as widely anticipated by market players. The statement showed that policymakers changed the wording on inflation, noting that it “has eased somewhat but remains elevated,” although there were no other relevant changes to the document.
• The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0985, up for the day with bullish stance in daily chart. The pair still stabilized above 20 and 50 SMA, indicates bullish strength. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA continued accelerating north and developing far above longer ones, suggests bulls not exhausted yet. On upside, the immediate resistance is 1.1000, break above this level will extend the advance to 1.1100.
• Technical readings in the daily chart support the bullish stance. The RSI indicator is above 72. The Momentum indicator stabilizes in positive territory, indicating bullish potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 1.0925 and below this level will open the gate to 1.0870.

 

[CDO Markets]

• EUR/USD comes under further downside pressure and rapidly gives away the initial optimism, returning to the mid-1.0800s in the wake of another stellar print from the US jobs report on Friday. It ended the week just below 1.0800, bearish in the daily chart.
• EUR/USD picks up extra selling pressure after the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls showed the US economy added 517K jobs during January, largely surpassing initial estimates for a gain of 185K jobs. In addition, the December reading was also revised up to 260K (from 223K).
• Further data saw the Unemployment Rate ticking lower to 3.4% and the key Average Hourly Earnings – a proxy for inflation via wages – rise 0.3% MoM and 4.4% from a year earlier. Additionally, the Participation Rate increased a tad to 62.4% (from 62.3%). Later, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed that services industry activity climbed above expansionary territory, boosted by new orders, while prices paid moderated. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose by 55.2 last month, vs. 49.2 in December and above the 50.4 foreseen.
• The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0795, down for the day with neutral to bullish stance in daily chart. The pair still stabilized between 20 and 50 SMA, indicates neutral strength. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA started turning flat but still developing above longer ones, suggests bulls not exhausted yet. On upside, the immediate resistance is 1.0930, break above this level will extend the advance to 1.1000.
• Technical readings in the daily chart support the neutral to bullish stance. The RSI indicator stabilizes around 50. The Momentum indicator still holds in positive territory, indicating bullish potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 1.0770 and below this level will open the gate to 1.0700.

 

[roanfox]

Thank you for the analysis, I still think we can go lower, as the dollar can get some strength once SPX starts going down

 

[mrsmith]

Good analysis
Thank you for sharing with us
Thank you

 

[karli20]

Even though he had a strong fall these last days, a slight recovery today, let's hope he continues his ascent