Weekly Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- Journalists of the world media drew attention to the online speech of Jerome Powell to students at the Town Hall conference. The Fed chief noted the ever-increasing importance of cryptocurrencies, outlining the phrase about the U.S. Treasury's examination of holding a portion of the country's reserves in digital assets. Making such a decision would literally blow up the cryptocurrency market, repeating the situation of 2017. The price of bitcoin soared then from $750 to $19,270, which is 25 times, getting the slang name “To the Moon”.
While Powell just theorizes about supporting cryptocurrencies, the US Congress may well arrange a mini "To the Moon" in the near future. First, the congressmen forced the US Treasury to prepare an explanatory guide that exempts all participants in the crypto market from submitting tax reports, except for brokers.
And two senators decided to go even further and introduced a bill simplifying the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) guidelines for miners, wallet operators, and others. FATF is now trying to achieve complete deanonymization of all blockchain transactions by forcing crypto industry members to implement the “travel rules” option. It applies to fiat transfers, where the bank will not accept payment without verified data.

- An unknown hacker has hacked a major Legalizer forum on drug trafficking in the former USSR countries. He posted some of the information in public access, the rest is sold by the hacker for at least 1 BTC. The information in the database includes among other passport data of the alleged owners of the forum, customer contacts and their correspondence.
The owner and developer of Legalizer is listed as a Latvian citizen, one of the ex-developers is a resident of the Moscow region of Russia, and the current administrator is a Ukrainian citizen. According to the Blockchair service, 20.57 BTC (about $935,000 at the time of writing) went through the drug forum's cryptocurrency wallet.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen believes bitcoin is facing a crucial test this September, which will determine the future direction of the entire market. According to him, bitcoin has tested the 20-week moving average every September since 2017 and either bounced or broke through it. And if another test happens this September, it will be possible to make a forecast basing on it until April 2022. “We will find out if the market will be bullish or if growth will stall for several months,” the analyst said.
The 20-week MA is currently around $43,500 and if BTC can hold that level as support, according to Benjamin Cowen, we will see an upward move. “The prospects are quite good, and if we manage to stay at this level as support, then we will have pleasant surprises,” he said.

- The largest American retailer Walmart (more than 11,700 hypermarkets in 28 countries) has opened a vacancy for the head of the cryptocurrency business. The new position provides for the creation and management of the digital asset development strategy. Recall that back in 2019, The Block, citing a patent application from Walmart, announced the company's plans to launch its own stablecoin.

- A popular cryptocurrency analyst and trader with the nickname DonAlt named four altcoins that are ready for a rally and can surpass BTC in profitability.
The first pair on the list is XRP/BTC. According to the trader, it is already "up 50 per cent but is still far from the level of resistance." DoAlt believes this pair could yet show 185% growth from current levels.
Next on the list is the popular Bitcoin Cash (BCH) altcoin. According to the trader, the BCH/BTC pair managed to stay above the key support level and is now ready to reach 0.02 BTC, as the next resistance level is about 50 per cent higher. The third asset is VeChain (VET), and at the bottom of the list is Tron (TRX).

- Bloomberg chief analyst Eric Balchunas suggested that a programmer from California Hal Finney was hiding behind the alias of the bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. He is known in the crypto community as one of the early supporters of bitcoin, who participated in the development of the cryptocurrency, and also conducted the first bitcoin transaction with Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009. The programmer died in 2014 at the age of 58 due to a serious illness.
The chief analyst at Bloomberg gained confidence that Finney was the creator of bitcoin after reading a message on the forum that the programmer sent back in 1993. Finney described there the idea of cryptocurrency trading cards, the principle of which is similar to the technology of non-fungible tokens (NFT).
It became known this spring that the fortune of the creator of bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto, who, according to various estimates, owns from 750 thousand to 1.1 million BTC, exceeded $61 billion.

- Residents of India, the second most populous country in the world, can now receive cashback in bitcoins. The card, issued by GoSats and available online, allows users to earn BTC when shopping at major stores such as Amazon, Starbucks and Flipkart.
The new product is being rolled out by GoSats in partnership with the non-profit National Payment Corporation of India, which promotes digital services across the country. This corporation was founded in December 2008 and is directly owned by the Reserve Bank of India, which should help avoid any regulatory hurdles from the authorities.

- As it turns out, bitcoin follows the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model developed by popular cryptanalyst PlanB so far. Plan B gave his forecast for the coming months in June 2021, when BTC was trading below $35,000. According to him, the price of BTC should reach $135,000 by the end of this December.

- Along with the current spike in prices, bitcoin has also shown significant improvement in network metrics. In particular, bitcoin miners have continued to accumulate, their balance has grown steadily over the past month. This means that they expect further growth in the price of the coin, so they do not want to take profits now.
Santiment, a web data analysis firm, also reported encouraging data for investors. It reports that the supply of bitcoin on exchanges has dropped to a two-week low. This suggests that a large amount of BTC will go to cold wallets. Analyst firm Glassnode has made a similar observation: “Bitcoin continued to leave exchanges in August at rates ranging from 75,000 to 100,000 coins per month. This outflow is similar to the period between 2020 and the Q1 21, when large accumulations prevailed.”

- Bloomberg analyst Michael McGlone speaks once again in favor of the first cryptocurrency. In his opinion, BTC is capable of replacing gold as an asset for hedging risks and accumulating wealth, "and the efforts of American regulators are unlikely to be able to prevent this."
Michael McGlone stressed that “digitizing money and the financial industry” is giving bitcoin a huge boost to growth. Once upon a time, similar factors allowed the US dollar to dominate the global financial arena. At the same time, gold does not have any strong drivers for growth, according to the analyst.
According to McGlone's forecast, bitcoin could well reach $100,000 in the medium term.

- According to a study conducted in the United States, LGBTQ representatives were among the most active crypto investors. One in four Americans in this category has invested in digital currency.
The surge in such interest is due to both positive and negative factors. Yosef Bonaparte, a professor at the University of Colorado, explains that gender discrimination, on average, reduces a person's chances of trading the stock market by 40%. Many members of the community have low incomes and are embarrassed to apply to traditional investment funds due to the huge amounts that the latter demand as payment for services. The key factor behind the growth in the number of crypto investors in the LGBTQ camp is the near-zero threshold for entering this market.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

NordFX Broker Becomes the Most Transparent Broker-2021

In mid-August, NordFX brokerage company received its first award this year. Experts from one of the major financial portals and business award organizations, World Forex Award (WFA), named NordFX the Most Transparent Broker-2021.

This award is important primarily because transparency is one of the most important factors, the same as financial performance, technology, risk, etc., that allows traders, investors and partners to assess the reliability of a company.

Before reaching their verdict, WFA experts assessed whether the information the company provides to stakeholders is open, complete and timely, and expressed in an understandable form required for objective decisions. An important role was played by the fact that NordFX had practically no claims from the state bodies of its regulation for 13 years of its work in the financial markets, and controversial issues that sometimes arose with clients were resolved openly and, if necessary, with the involvement of independent experts.

It should be noted that NordFX business policy focuses on all three main areas of transparency: openness, clarity and accuracy of information. This applies both to the documents governing client and partner relationships, as well as the description of trading terms, including speed of order execution, spreads and commissions during transactions and when depositing/withdrawing funds.

Promotions run by NordFX are no exception. A fresh example here is the super lottery, where 100,000 USD is drawn among traders this year. Any client of the company can take part in this lottery, who can check the correctness of the accrual of lottery tickets in real time on the company's website, and the draws are held online, making it possible for anyone to follow the prize draw on the Internet.

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 23 - 27, 2021​

EUR/USD: Fed Needs Strong Dollar, ECB Needs Weak Euro

A previous review named the publication of the US Fed's FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday 18 August as the most important event of the past week. This document was supposed to clarify the situation regarding the timing of the curtailment of the monetary stimulus (QE) program. Of course, 100% clarity never came out. Some Fed executives still believe that it is necessary to start winding down stimulus at the earliest in spring 2022. However, there is also the opposite view that a parting with QE should happen before the end of this year. And it was this view that led to another decline in investor risk appetites and a further strengthening of the dollar.

Stock indexes - the Dow Jones, S&P500, Nasdaq Composite, have been falling since the start of the week, with the release of the minutes pushing them further down. And while a certain wave of purchases could be observed after each pullback, the trend still remains downward: the market gets rid of stocks, preferring dollars. The DXY index, which tracks the USD against a basket of 6 major currencies, heaped nearly 1.3 per cent over the week, rising from 92.500 to 93.700.

In addition to anticipating the early start of QE, the new strain of Delta coronavirus is also pressing the stock and commodity markets. In anticipation of new lockdowns, investors fear for the fate of both the global economy as a whole and its locomotive, the US economy. According to the Ministry of Health, the number of new infections totaled more than 268,000 in one day on August 17 alone, which compares with the peaks of the beginning of the year.

That being said, the US job market feels pretty good at all. At least for now. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 377 thousand to 348 thousand for the week, which is much better than the forecast of 363 thousand. This has been the best indicator since the beginning and has benefited the dollar.

Another source of support for the USD was the widening spreads between the yields of US and foreign bonds. Foreign investors support and will support the demand for dollars in order to then purchase American Treasuries.

Because of the above factors, the result of the past week was the strengthening of the dollar against the euro by 130 points. having started Monday from 1.1795, EUR/USD groped the local bottom at 1.1665 by the end of the week and finished five days in 1.1700.

A strong dollar is needed by the Fed to reassure investors about unmanageable inflation. Therefore, new, clearer signals regarding the folding of QE can be expected from this regulator. But the ECB is not at all opposed to further weakening of the euro, which has been repeatedly stated by the head of the bank Christine Lagarde. So, according to many experts, the downtrend of the EUR/USD pair will continue in the medium term.

The pair has now fallen below the low of April 01, 2021, 1.1704, and if this breakdown is confirmed, the next targets will be the lows of last autumn in the 1.1600-1.1610 zone. If it is able to overcome this barrier, it will open a road to targets in zones 1.1450 and 1.1240. A 300-400 point path is likely to take a month or two to overcome. But if the Fed announces the completion of QE, the pair will fly that distance in a matter of days. This development is supported by 65% of experts.

The remaining 35% believe that the dollar may take a pause in its growth and the EUR/USD pair will return to the 1.1700-1.1900 range for a while. The nearest targets here are 1.1750 and 1.1830.

In terms of technical analysis, D1 has 100% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators painted red. The remaining 25% oscillators give signals that the pair is oversold.

In the coming week, we should note the publication of Markit's German and Eurozone PMI on Monday 23 August, as well as of capital orders goods and durable goods in the US on Wednesday 25 August. On Thursday, we'll find out preliminary US GDP figures. In addition, the annual symposium will be held in Jackson Hole from August 26 to 28, where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on Friday.

GBP/USD: Escape from the Pound

If the pound could still struggle with the dollar two weeks ago, it surrendered all its positions last week. Investors rushed to secure assets due to the rapid spread of the Delta strain and its impact on the global economic recovery. Plus, the possible winding down of QE in the USA. And then the Gfk UK Consumer Confidence Index fell from minus 7 in July to minus 8 in August, the worst performance since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, GBP/USD falls almost 270 points to mid-term support in the 1.3600 zone and finishes at 1.3622.

We would like to remind that in the previous forecast, the specialists of the German Commerzbank designated the July 20 low at 1.3571 as the target for the pair. Given the slight backlash, this forecast proved correct. And now they say that in its fall, the pair may test the 200-week moving average at 1.3146. The strongest support along the way is located in the 1.3480 and 1.3200 zones.

South is also indicated by 100% of trend indicators and 65% of oscillators on D1. However, only 30 per cent of experts agree with them among analysts. The remaining 70% believe that the British currency's potential for resistance is far from exhausted, especially if the Bank of England takes a more active position. 35% of oscillators in the oversold zone talk of a possible reversal to the north as well. The nearest resistance is at 1.3725, the nearest target is the return of GBP/USD to the 1.3800-1.3875 zone. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3910 and 1.3960.

Of the most significant macro statistics to be released next week, the publication of Markit's UK services business index on Monday 23 August can be singled out.

continued below...

 

[Stan NordFX]

USD/JPY: Yen Is Not Afraid of Dollar

Against the backdrop of investors” defection from risk, unlike the rest of the currencies, the yen, as a quiet haven, successfully resists the dollar's gaining strength. Since past March, USD/JPY has been moving along the 110.00 horizon, making rare attempts to get outside the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. This time, starting the week from 109.55 mark, it finished it almost there, at 109.80, and the range of fluctuations barely exceeded 110 points: from 109.10 at the low to 110.22 at the high.

This behavior of the pair forces both experts and indicators to make very contradictory forecasts. Among the first, 45% side with the bulls, 35% side with the bears and 20% take a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, 35% are colored red, 15% - green, 50% - neutral gray. Among trend indicators, the ratio is 60% to 40% in favor of green.

Support levels are 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are the 110.00, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65 zones. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Lull Before the Storm?

Bitcoin has slowly and uncertainly creeped up all week, trying to overcome a strong level of resistance around $48,000. Two attempts, on August 14 and 16, ended in failure, after which BTC/USD rolled back to the support of $44,000. At the time of writing this review, towards the end of Friday, August 20, it went to the assault again, broke through the resistance and reached the level of $49,000 in the thin market.

The total crypto market capitalization increased over the week from $1.957 trillion to $2.043 trillion, that is, by just 4.4%. And, although it has overcome the $2.0 trillion bar, it is not at all a fact that it will be able to gain a foothold above this level. Trading volumes on the BTC network remain low. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also remained still at 70 points.

This sluggishness and uncertainty may be due to the fact that large institutional investors are currently focusing on the traditional market. But we must not forget that mid-August is the height of the holiday period, and many traders will not step up until the end of the month.

Very strong drivers are needed to dramatically push the market up or down. World media reporters drew attention to Jerome Powell's online speech to students at the Town Hall conference. The Fed chief noted the ever-increasing importance of cryptocurrencies, outlining the phrase about the U.S. Treasury's examination of holding a portion of the country's reserves in digital assets. Making such a decision would literally blow up the cryptocurrency market, repeating the situation of 2017. The price of bitcoin soared then from $750 to $19,270, which is 25 times, getting the slang name “To the Moon”. But for now, the head of the Federal Reserve's reasoning about supporting cryptocurrencies is only theoretical.

Bloomberg analyst Michael McGlone also spoke in favor of the first cryptocurrency, who emphasized that “digitalizing money and the financial industry” gives bitcoin a huge boost to growth. Once upon a time, similar factors allowed the US dollar to dominate the global financial arena. At the same time gold, according to the analyst, has no strong drivers for growth, and BTC is therefore quite capable of replacing this metal as an asset for risk hedging and wealth accumulation.

According to McGlone's forecast, bitcoin could well reach $100,000 in the medium term. The well-known cryptanalyst PlanB calls a slightly bigger figure. In his opinion, bitcoin follows the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model he developed very closely, so the BTC/USD pair should reach $135,000 by the end of December.

Of course, all these figures are only the assumptions of specialists. Another cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen believes bitcoin is facing a crucial test this September, which will determine the future direction of the entire market. Bitcoin has tested the 20-week moving average every September since 2017 and either bounced or broke through it. And if another test happens this September, it will be possible to make a forecast basing on it until April 2022. “We will find out if the market will be bullish or if growth will stall for several months,” the analyst says.

The 20-week MA is currently around $43,500 and if BTC can hold that level as support, according to Benjamin Cowen, we will see an upward move.

Santiment, a web data analysis firm, reported encouraging data for investors. Bitcoin supply on exchanges fell to a two-week low. This suggests that a large amount of BTC will go to cold wallets. Analyst firm Glassnode has made a similar observation: “Bitcoin continued to leave exchanges in August at rates ranging from 75,000 to 100,000 coins per month. This outflow is similar to the period between 2020 and the Q1 21, when large accumulations prevailed.”

Bitcoin miners are also in no hurry to part with their coins, over the past month, their balance has grown steadily. This means that they expect further growth in the price of the coin as well, so they do not want to take profits now.

Despite the fact that the dominance of bitcoin has decreased from 69.7% to 43.8% since the beginning of the year, this coin is without a doubt still the main engine of the digital market. It is clear that the main competitor for BTC at the moment is ethereum. On some exchanges, it overtakes the reference cryptocurrency in terms of trading volumes already. And according to some experts, such as the head of the deVere Group Nigel Green, ETH may push bitcoin to second place in a few years.

As for the closer prospects, the popular cryptocurrency analyst and trader with the nickname DonAlt named several altcoins that are ready for a rally and may surpass BTC in profitability in the near future. The first on the list is ripple. According to the trader, the XRP/BTC pair is already "up 50 per cent but is still far from the level of resistance." DonAlt believes this pair could yet show 185% growth from current levels.

NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- MicroStrategy acquired additional 3,907 BTC worth about $177 million on August 24. The average purchase price was $45,294 per coin, including commissions and other expenses.
In total, this analytics provider has invested more than $2.9 billion in digital gold. Now there is a total of 108,992 BTC on MicroStrategy's balance sheet. At the time of writing, the value of this cryptocurrency is estimated at $5.25 billion.

- El Salvador has begun preparing infrastructure related to the entry into force of the law to recognize bitcoin as an official means of payment. Operations with this cryptocurrency will be available at 200 ATMs and 50 bank branches by September 7. Residents will be able to withdraw cash 24 hours a day without any commission.
Head of State Nayib Bukele assured that ATMs will appear in all parts of El Salvador in the future. “What if someone is not interested in bitcoin? Keep living your ordinary life. Nobody is going to take your dollars. You can always queue up at Western Union and pay a commission,” Bukele stated. The President of El Salvador estimates that citizens lose about $400 million on remittances fees each year.

- Trend Micro experts found over 120 fake applications for cloud mining of cryptocurrencies in the Google Play Store. Some of them have been downloaded over 100,000 times. Malware does not have a mining feature, according to the study. However, they charge users a monthly fee of about $15 and additional payments allegedly for “enhanced mining opportunities.” Some apps require a prepayment.
Following Trend Micro's appeal to Google, eight fraudulent apps were removed. These include BitFunds, Bitcoin Miner, Daily Bitcoin Rewards, Crypto Holic, MineBit Pro, Bitcoin 2021, Ethereum - Pool Mining Cloud and Bitcoin (BTC) crypto wallet - Pool Mining Cloud Wallet. However, according to Trend Micro, about 120 malware is still available for download.

- A 24-year-old electronic engineer from Pretoria (South Africa) could now be richer by about $1 million but lost the wallet data with 20 BTC mined 10 years ago. He mined the cryptocurrency at school age. To do this, he used a computer with 512 GB of RAM. “I don’t remember exactly how much time I was mining, but it lasted about a couple of months continuously,” the failed millionaire recalls. Eventually he got fed up with it, as the computer could not be used for other tasks, and the cryptocurrency cost virtually nothing. During that year, the price of the first cryptocurrency rose from $0.0008 to $0.08.
Then he lost the paper with the key and password from the bitcoin wallet, and at some point, while cleaning the computer, he also deleted the data file. Some seven years later, with the price of the cryptocurrency already reaching $1,000, the engineer made an attempt to gain access to the mined coins. “I remember collecting all the HDDs, memory cards, CDs and DVDs in the house and carefully reviewing each one. It took about a week." However, there was no happy end.
Chainanalysis estimates that about 20% of mined bitcoins are in lost or forgotten cryptocurrency wallets at the moment.

- American banking giant Citigroup is awaiting regulatory approval to begin trading bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Citigroup will therefore become another megabank after Goldman Sachs offering similar opportunities
The bank is also reported to be actively picking up staff for its cryptocurrency team in London.

- A constant critic of bitcoin, president of the brokerage company Euro Pacific Capital Inc., Peter Schiff admitted that the price of BTC could still show impressive growth, reaching $100,000.
Schiff is known as the man who takes every opportunity to strike at cryptocurrency and call for the purchase of gold. And now, in an interview with Coin Stories, this "golden beetle" expressed regret for not making investments in bitcoin on time. Despite all the negative things said about the first cryptocurrency, Schiff still did not undertake to dispute the fact that BTC is a great store of value. In fact, the ROI on bitcoin has been 8,900,000% over the past decade.
“I wish I had bought bitcoin when I first heard about it - it was a serious mistake,” the financier admitted. "I could invest $100,000 in it, yes, I could. Instead, I invested that $100,000 in other things that failed. Now I could become a bitcoin billionaire because I knew about it early on. If I could go back in time, I would have acted differently,” Schiff lamented.
At the same time, he remains bearish and excludes the possibility that the asset will ever be massively used as a means of payment. According to the financier, the only merit of bitcoin is that people speculate on it.

- Earlier, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone repeatedly predicted the growth of BTC to $100,000. But, according to the expert, the mainstream of the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization can become an obstacle to growth. People are beginning to realize that ethereum is “the building block for all financial technology, DeFi and infrastructure in a world that is going digital,” McGlone said.
The expert named non-fungible tokens (NFT) as another powerful support for the price of the main altcoin. Such assets are becoming extremely popular and are mostly issued on the ETH blockchain.
In doing so, McGlone called former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager Raoul Pal's forecast of Ethereum growth to $20,000 as overstated. But also, the price will not fall below $2,000, rather the rate will exceed $4,000, according to the analyst.

- Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin is much more optimistic about the future of this altcoin. He expects that after the recent London hardfork and implementation of EIP-1559, the ETH price will be 10 times higher than current levels and reach $30,000. In this case, the capitalization of this altcoin would reach $3 trillion, and exceed the capitalization of all the major technology companies in the world.

— An Australian entrepreneur promised to pay BTC worth $5 to everyone who gets a coronavirus vaccination.
The Mayor of Cool Valley, Missouri (USA) is planning a much more generous reward. He announced his intention to donate $500 to $1000 in BTC to each of the 1,500 Cool Valley residents, as he believes this cryptocurrency has the potential to make them rich. “I have friends whose lives have completely changed: from ordinary workers with a working schedule from nine to five, they have become owners of a fortune of more than $80 million in a few years,” the mayor explained his initiative. At the same time, he put forward one condition: recipients will not be able to sell their bitcoins for five years, which, according to the mayor, will allow them to wait for the price of BTC to rise to half a million dollars.
Residents of the city reacted to this initiative very positively, so the mayor has a lot of chances to be re-elected for a new term.

- With the start of another bitcoin rally, some major players predict that cryptocurrency will reach new record levels by the end of the year. The survey was conducted by Elwood Asset Management, with 55 out of an estimated 175 cryptocurrency hedge funds.
According to the data, 65% of these hedge funds predict that bitcoin will be trading in the $50,000 to $100,000 range by the end of 2021. 21% of those surveyed named a price between $100,000 and $150,000. And only 1% of hedge funds predicts that the asset's value will be below $50,000.
63% of hedge funds believe that the cryptocurrency market capitalization will be in the range of $2 trillion to $5 trillion, with another 11% estimating a market capitalization of between $5 trillion and $10 trillion.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 30 - September 03, 2021​

EUR/USD: Three Hawks and a Dove in Jackson Hole

The return of the EUR/USD pair to 1.1700-1.1900 was predicted by 35% of experts supported by 25% of oscillators that showed it was oversold. After renewing the annual low of 1.1665 on August 20, the pair did go into a correction, reaching 1.1775 on Thursday.

The week's economic statistics proved weak enough for both the US and Eurozone, and all market attention has been shifted to the annual Jackson Hole symposium, running from 26 to 28 August. There were speeches by three representatives of the US Fed leadership, which turned out to be even more hawkish than investors had expected.

So the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard said that the asset purchase program is doing the US economy more harm than good at the moment by inflating another soap bubble in the real estate market. According to Esther George, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the current outbreak of the pandemic caused by the Delta strain will not have a significant impact on the economic situation in the country, and it would be better if the process of winding down QE starts earlier than later.

Robert Kaplan from Dallas joined his fellow hawks. Thus, the overall sentiment of these three high Federal Reserve officials can be reduced to the desire to start reducing asset purchases as early as the first and early second quarter of 2022, in the amount of $15 billion per month. Such a pace will allow the US central bank to raise its interest rate by the end of next year.

Fed chief Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole symposium at the very end of the working week, on the evening of Friday August 27. Some investors hoped that his position would be significantly softer than that of the Bullard-George-Kaplan trio. Otherwise, it could have dealt a major blow to the stock market, knocking down major indices including the Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite. The bulls on the DXY dollar index, on the contrary, would be fazed by Jerome Powell's hawkish speeches. And although the consensus is gradually shifting to the fact that the regulator will announce the start of reducing monetary stimulus in November and will start implementing its plans in December-January, there was no need to wait for exact dates from the head of the Federal Reserve. That's exactly what happened: the high official said discussions about timing were still under way, that the issue would depend on economic and health risks, and that the central bank would continue to take a patient approach to their policies. The dollar weakened sharply after these words, and stock indices, on the contrary, updated historical highs once again.

Experts and investors have yet to analyze the likelihood of monetary restriction beginning in a period or another. So far, after some hesitation following Mr Powell's vaguely dovish position, the EUR/USD pair flew north, recorded a local high at 1.1802 and ended the five-day level at 1.1795.

Talking about the future, only 30% of the experts surveyed voted for the further growth of the pair, with the next targets of 1.1830 and 1.1900. The remaining 70% of analysts have taken the opposite view. They believe that the pair should retest the 1.1665 level. The nearest support is 1.1750 and 1.1700. The position of the indicators in total can be described as neutral. Among the oscillators on D1, 50% indicate a rise in the pair, 25% indicate a fall, and another 25% are colored neutral gray. As for trend indicators, 80% look south and 20% look north.

The coming week's events include the release of German consumer market statistics on August 30 and September 01. Similar statistics for the Eurozone will be released on August 31 and September 03. As for the US, the ADP report on the employment in the private sector and the ISM index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the country will be published on September 1. And on the first Friday of the month, September 03, we will traditionally learn the most important indicators from the US labor market, including the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: Wherever the Euro Goes, the Pound Goes

Overall, GBP/USD dynamics was reminiscent of the previous pair's movements. After reaching a low of 1.3600 on August 20, a rebound followed as a result of which the British pound rose to the mark 1.3767 on Thursday, August 26, as predicted by most (70%) experts.

Then came the meeting of American bankers in Jackson Hole and the hawkish speech of the aforementioned leaders of the Federal Reserve Bank, which led to some strengthening of the dollar and a decline in the pair to 1.3680. And then, thanks to the Fed chairman, the American currency began to fall in price again. As already mentioned, the market's hopes that Powell would announce a specific and early date for winding down the asset repurchase program did not come to fruition. As a result, the pair went up sharply, reaching a height of 1.3780, and completed the trading session at 1.3760.

Giving a forecast for the coming week, the majority of analysts (75%) expect the US currency to strengthen and a new storm of the 1.3600 level. If successful, the next target will be the horizon 1.3480. The nearest support is the zone 1.3680-1.3700.

The remaining 25% believe that the growth opportunities for the British currency have not yet been exhausted. The nearest resistance is at 1.3780, the nearest target is the return of the GBP/USD pair to the 1.3800-1.3875 zone. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3910 and 1.3960.

As for the oscillators on D1, 40% look south, 50% look east, and only 10% look north. Among the trend indicators, the ratio of forces is 60% to 40% in favor of the reds.

continued below...

 

[Stan NordFX]

USD/JPY: Calm, and Calm Again

Amid market unrest caused by statements from Fed executives, unlike the rest of the currencies, the yen, as a quiet haven, is successfully countering any storms. The USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. This time, starting the week from 109.80 mark, it finished it almost there, at 109.82, and the range of fluctuations narrows even more: from 109.40 at the low to 110.25 at the high.

This behavior of the pair leads experts to give very versatile predictions. 40% of them have sided with bulls this time, 30% side with bears, and 30% have taken a neutral position. As for the indicators on D1, one cannot give priority to any of the directions here either.

Support levels are 109.40, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are the 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65 zones. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: at the Crossroads

We put a question in the heading of the previous review. "The Lull Before the Storm?" - that is what it was. We also noted that powerful drivers will be needed to push bitcoin quotes above the current levels. But there were no drivers, so the storm hasn't happened yet. Although the news background is generally quite positive.

Thus, one of the digital market locomotives, MicroStrategy, purchased an additional 3,907 BTC on August 24 for about $177 million. The average purchase price was $45,294 per coin. And this suggests that the company does not expect any serious drawdown of the BTC/USD pair, and, on the contrary, expects its further growth.

In total, this analytics software provider has invested more than $2.9 billion in digital gold. Now there is a total of 108,992 BTC on MicroStrategy's balance sheet worth over $5 billion.

American banking giant Citigroup is awaiting regulatory approval to begin trading bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Citigroup will therefore become another megabank after Goldman Sachs offering similar opportunities.

Bloomberg experts suggest that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve not one, but several applications for the launch of ETFs on bitcoin futures. The goal is to maintain competition and not give anyone any advantage. The SEC may make its decision by the end of October. And the first European bitcoin futures could be launched as early as mid-September. This was announced by Europe's largest derivatives exchange Eurex.

Having reached the medium-term target, the BTC/USD pair is "stuck" in the $47,000-50,000 range. This zone is a kind of intersection of two roads: horizontal and ascending channels. And the mood of the market for the coming weeks depends on whether the pair will be able to break through the support at the level of $47,000.

In terms of medium- to long-term forecasts, they remain positive overall. This was shown by a survey conducted by Elwood Asset Management with 55 out of approximately 175 cryptocurrency hedge funds. According to the data, 65% of these hedge funds predict that bitcoin will be trading in the $50,000 to $100,000 range by the end of 2021. 21% of those surveyed named a price between $100,000 and $150,000. And only 1% of hedge funds predicts that the asset's value will be below $50,000.

63% of hedge funds believe that the cryptocurrency market capitalization will be in the range of $2 trillion to $5 trillion, with another 11% estimating a market capitalization of between $5 trillion and $10 trillion.

The fact that the price of BTC can show impressive growth, reaching $100,000, was admitted even by the constant critic of bitcoin, the president of the brokerage company Euro Pacific Capital Inc. Peter Schiff.

This "golden beetle" is known as the man who takes every opportunity to strike at cryptocurrency and call for the purchase of gold. However, this time, he did not undertake to dispute the fact that BTC is a great store of value. In fact, the ROI on bitcoin has been 8,900,000% over the past decade. At the same time, he remains bearish and excludes the possibility that the asset will ever be massively used as a means of payment. According to the financier, the only merit of bitcoin is that people speculate on it.

Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has also repeatedly predicted BTC's growth to $100,000. But, according to the expert, the mainstream of the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization can become an obstacle to growth. People are beginning to realize that ethereum is “the building block for all financial technology, DeFi and infrastructure in a world that is going digital,” McGlone said.

The expert named non-fungible tokens (NFT) as another powerful support for the price of the main altcoin. Such assets are becoming extremely popular and are mostly issued on the ETH blockchain.

At the same time, McGlone considers the former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager Raoul Pal's forecast of ethereum growth to $20,000 as overstated. But, according to the analyst, the price will not fall below $2,000 either, rather the rate will exceed $4,000.

The creator of this altcoin, Vitalik Buterin, is much more optimistic about the future of ethereum. He expects that after the recent London hardfork and implementation of EIP-1559, the ETH price will be 10 times higher than current levels and reach $30,000. In this case, the capitalization of this altcoin would reach $3 trillion, and exceed the capitalization of all the major technology companies in the world. In the meantime, this figure is about $380 billion.

As far as the total capitalization of the crypto market is concerned, as we suggested in the previous review, there is now a struggle in the area of the psychologically important $2.0tn level. Starting at $2.043 trillion, this figure rose to $2.162 trillion on August 23, it fell to $1.973 trillion by August 27, and it rose again to $2.021 trillion by Friday evening.

Trading volumes on the BTC network remain low. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index froze practically, having risen by only 1 point in a week, from 70 to 71.

And in conclusion, our not-so-serious life hacks column has another tip on how to get rich on cryptocurrency. It turns out that for this you just need to move to live in Cool Valley in Missouri (USA). The mayor of this town decided to seriously raise the welfare of its 1,500 residents, and to that end promised to transfer $500 to $1,000 to each of them in BTC. At the same time, he put forward one condition: recipients will not be able to sell their bitcoins for five years, which, according to the mayor, will allow them to wait for the price of BTC to rise to half a million dollars.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- Hundreds of residents rallied in the capital of El Salvador against the legalization of the first cryptocurrency, Euronews reports. Citizens are concerned about possible increases in corruption due to the replacement of the US dollar with bitcoin
The Salvadoran Association of International Freight Carriers has demanded an amendment to the bill, removing the obligation to accept digital gold as payment. Otherwise, industry officials said they would suspend services. But this initiative of the country's President Nayib Bukele, in addition to opponents, has many supporters. In contrast to transport workers, for example, the legalization of bitcoin was supported by the Salvadoran branch of fast-food restaurant chain KFC.

- Another piece of news is from the field of transport. Backed by Internet giant Alibaba, electric car maker Zhiji Auto has developed an app for owners of upcoming IM electric vehicles. With its help, drivers will be able to earn digital currency for the mileage covered.
Motorists will have to enter information about each kilometer they run in order to enter the mining pool. They will receive the Stone digital currency as a reward. The company plans to issue 500 coins 144 times a day for a start. The issue will be halved every four years to maintain liquidity.
The asset can be exchanged for various services of the company. When the car's mileage reaches 5,000 km, its owner will be able to purchase a next-generation smart driving system for coins or increase the battery capacity to 120 kWh.
The IM electric car will go on sale in 2022. According to the manufacturers, the novelty should become a worthy competitor to Tesla: its range on one charge is 1,000 km.

- Venezuelan law enforcers are looking for a 23-year-old man who organized his own kidnapping in order to steal $1.15 million worth of bitcoins from gullible citizens. The attackers allegedly forced him to withdraw the cryptocurrency from the Binance exchange and transfer it to various wallets. The man is accused of fraud and money laundering and is currently on the wanted list.

- Investor John Paulson, whose fortune is estimated by Forbes at $3.5 billion, called the cryptocurrency a "bubble" in an interview with Bloomberg. In his view, the digital asset market will “ultimately prove worthless,” so it is not worth investing in it. “Cryptocurrencies are a bubble. I would describe them as a limited supply of nothing. If the demand is greater than the limited supply, the price will rise. But, if demand falls, the price will also fall. None of the cryptocurrencies have intrinsic value,” Paulson explained his point.
For the record: John Paulson was named the best private asset manager by Alpha magazine 15 years ago, in 2007. Paulson's fund managed to earn $3.7 billion then at the end of the year, despite the mortgage crisis and the collapse of the American market.

- Analyst Aaron Arnold in his YouTube channel (952 thousand subscribers) named the fundamental factors that, in his opinion, will provoke the "explosive" growth of ethereum. He considers a key feature the recent change in the altcoin blockchain, which introduced a digital coin burning mechanism. The London update was released on ethereum network on August 05, which completely changed the transaction fee mechanism. A portion of the commission that miners previously received as a reward is now burned. According to the Ultrasound.Money service, more than 134,800 coins worth over $427 million have already been burned on the ethereum network since the activation of this update. The average burning rate is 3.77 coins per minute.
The analyst considers lower Ethereum net inflation as a second driver of growth. According to Arnold's calculations, it is only 1.1% in annual terms at the moment, while the same indicator for bitcoin is at the level of 1.75%.
Arnold also recalled the multiple growth of funds blocked in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. In his view, this is the third factor that contributes to ethereum's price hike. According to DeFi Pulse, if the volume of blocked funds was $16 billion on January 1 of this year, this figure had already reached $82 billion by August 30 (an increase of 412% since the beginning of the year).

- Billionaire investor Bill Miller purchased bitcoin through the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Such information is contained in the reporting, which has been filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), according to The Block. As of June 30, Miller Opportunity Trust owns 1.5 million GBTC shares worth $44.7 million. The size of this position increased to $59 million by September 1 and is 1.55% in the fund's portfolio.
The second big player whose investment came to light this week is banking giant Morgan Stanley. It has been actively increasing the size of its position in GBTC in recent months. And this is also reflected in the reporting to the SEC. GBTC shares turned out to be included in several of the bank's funds. The largest investment came from Morgan Stanley Insight Fund, which acquired 928.051 GBTC shares for $27.665 million.

- As in other countries around the world, the number of citizens buying digital currencies continues to grow in the USA. And the highest proportion of crypto investors are young people under the age of 35. CNBC revealed that 11% of young US residents invested some of the capital they received in the form of assistance from the state during the coronavirus pandemic in bitcoin and other coins. (By comparison, stocks were picked by 15%).
60% of those who preferred cryptocurrency stated that they are set for long-term storage of this asset. On the contrary, 21% are just waiting for a convenient moment to profitably sell the previously purchased coins.

- The number of vacancies related to cryptocurrency has grown by 118% over the year. Software development was the most sought-after position in this field, with 29.7% of vacancies. In second place are managerial positions with 10%.

- Experts at Kaspersky Lab discovered the Swarez Trojan, which, among other things, stole cryptocurrency wallet data. This was reported by the press service of the company. The peak of activity of the malware occurred in the spring of 2021. The attackers used the games Among Us, Battlefield 4, Battlefield V, Control, Counter-Strike: Global Offensive, FIFA 21, Fortnite, GTA V, Minecraft, NBA 2K21, Need for Speed Heat, PUBG, Rust, The Sims 4 and Titanfall 2. Attempts to download such files were recorded in 45 countries.

- Northstar & Badcharts British analyst and co-founder Kevin Wadsworth believes BTC will rise to $100,000 by the end of 2021. After that, the current bullish stage will be completed for the cryptocurrency.
Speaking of the first cryptocurrency, Wadsworth believes that its value will increase "in September, October and, presumably, in November." Some of the leading altcoins (such as ethereum), he said, could also rise significantly, since a rise in prices by 3-4 times is quite likely.

- PlanB analyst is also confident that BTC will break through the $100K level by Christmas. This is indicated by the signals of his S2F forecasting model.
Bitcoin's prospects for further growth are also indicated by year analysis of cryptocurrency behavior. Analysts at Twitter Root channel are confident that the main driver of BTC is halvings (a 2-time reduction in mining awards). They form a shortage of coins in the market, which positively affects the value of a digital asset. As for bitcoin, it has yet to fulfil the growth potential that halving put into it in May 2020.

-¬Spencer Schiff, son of the famous bitcoin critic and gold advocate Peter Schiff, wrote that there were big changes in his life in the last year: he went all-in, preferring bitcoin to gold. Back in August 2020, he kept most of his savings in the most popular precious metal but has now decided to transfer all the assets to the main cryptocurrency.
His father Peter Schiff, CEO and global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital, has recently tweeted that he considers those who do not sell bitcoins to be "real idiots." He also expressed the opinion that this coin will never reach $100 thousand and compared the hype around the cryptocurrency with tulip mania. However, he also publicly regretted on several occasions that he had not bought bitcoin in the early days of the asset's appearance.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 06 - 10, 2021​

EUR/USD: Falling Dollar and Rising Risk Appetite

The majority is not always right. Thus, only 30% of the experts voted for EUR/USD to grow to 1.1900 last week. But they were the ones who proved right. After the release of data from the US labour market on Friday 03 September, the pair soared to a height of 1.1908, and finished five days at 1.1880. The weakening of the US currency continues after Fed chief Jerome Powell's dovish statements in Jackson Hole and amid uncertainty with the timing of the beginning to wind down the fiscal stimulation program (QE).

Fed management cites sustained improvement in the employment situation as a major condition for reducing stimulus. However, ADP data on changes in the number of US private sector employment released on Wednesday was significantly worse than expected, with 374K instead of the projected 613K. Such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created in August outside the agricultural sector (NFP) added pessimism: the real figure was 3.2 times lower than the forecast (235K instead of 750K). And this despite the fact that the NFP was 1053K in July. All this suggests strongly that the pace of recovery in the US economy is falling, and it is too early to talk of the start of QE reduction and, even more so, of an interest rate rise on the dollar.

As a result, the DXY dollar index (the ratio of USD to a basket of six major foreign currencies) has dropped from 93.63 to 92.07 since August 20, while risk sentiment in the market, on the contrary, has increased. The S&P500 stock index continues to update historic highs, and its chart resembles a north-easterly straight now. It is very similar to the one drawn by the martingale-based expert advisor until... a collapse occurs. A number of experts predict the fate of a bursting bubble in the future for the stock market as well.

As for the EUR/USD pair's future, only 35% of the experts surveyed vote for its continued growth, 20% vote for the pair's fall. The remaining 45% have taken a neutral position in anticipation of clearer signals from the US Federal Reserve regarding the start of QE curtailment.

The indicators on D1 are as follows. Among the oscillators, 85% point north, the remaining 15% give signals that the pair is overbought. Among the trend indicators, 75% are directed upward (note that there were only 20% of those a week earlier). Support levels are 1.1845, 1.1800, 1.1750, 1.1705 and 1.1665. Resistance levels are 1.1910, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100.

As for the events of the coming week, the release on September 7 of the data on GDP of the Eurozone for Q2 should be noted. The forecast here is disappointing: it is expected to fall 0.6% compared to a 2.0% increase in the previous period. The ECB's interest rate decision will be known on Thursday September 09, but it is very likely to remain unchanged at 0%. Therefore, a subsequent press conference by the European regulator's leadership will be of much greater interest. Finally, Germany's HICP, the Consumer Price Index, which estimates the inflation rate of the country that is the locomotive of the European economy, will be unveiled on Friday, September 10.

GBP/USD: Wherever the Euro Goes, the Pound Goes

We called this part of the review “Wherever the Euro Goes, the Pound Goes” last time and we left the title unchanged this week. Because nothing that would initiate an independent movement of the GBP/USD pair has happened. Just like the European currency, and for the same reasons, the British one has been growing against the dollar since August 20. The two-week high was reached on September 03 at 1.3890, and the last chord of the trading session sounded at 1.3865.

The pair is currently in the central part of the 1.3800-1.4000 channel, where it appears periodically since February 2021. If it goes north (this scenario is now supported by 60% of analysts), then the nearest strong resistance will be met at the level of 1.3960, then 1.4100. The bulls aim to refresh the June 01 high at 1.4250. In case of the opposite development (20% of experts' votes), it will be supported in zones 1.3730, 1.3665 and 1.3600. The remaining 20% of analysts vote for a sideways trend.

Among the oscillators on D1, 60% are colored green, 20% have taken a neutral position, and another 20% indicate that the pair is overbought. In trend indicators, greens win with a score of 9:1.

As we know, the main indicators of economic recovery and the signal for the start of contraction of monetary stimulus programs are two factors: labour market health and inflation. That is why it is worth paying attention this week to the hearing of the UK Inflation Report, which will take place on Friday September 10.

continued below...

 

[Stan NordFX]

USD/JPY: Most Unflappable Pair

As a safe haven, the USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. So this time, having started the five-day week at 109.80, it first dropped by 20 points, then rose by 80, then dropped again and ended the week almost at the same place where it started, at the level of 109.70.

Even the statement of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga about his intention to resign could not influence the yen rate. His popularity was hit by the Tokyo Olympics this summer. Many considered their hosting not a celebration of sport but a fueling of another wave of coronovirus, leaving COVID-19 incidence in the country now three times higher than during the previous waves.

A number of experts consider the departure of Yoshihide Suga a harbinger of possible changes in the economic policy of the Japanese government, in connection with which the Nikkei index rose by 2%, but the yen rate decided not to react to this, showing a truly icy calm.

The experts' forecast for the near future looks like this: 35% of them side with the bulls, 45% - with the bears, and 20% have taken a neutral position. As for the indicators on D1, here it is still impossible to give priority to any of the directions.

Support levels are 109.40, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 109.85, 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Ethereum vs Bitcoin

Amid the continued weakening of the dollar and rising risk appetite, the BTC/USD pair is trying to gain a foothold above the important psychological level of $50,000 for the second week. It broke through this resistance for the third time and reached $51.085 at the time of this writing, on Friday September 03.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index added just 1 point for the week, rising from 71 to 74. But the total crypto market capitalization has grown from $2.021 trillion to $2.275 trillion. And the core cryptocurrency accounts for only about $58bn: bitcoin's dominance continues to decline. It fell from 43.77% to 41.41% in seven days, while ethereum is improving its position step by step. So, if the share of ETH was 18.07% of the total market capitalization on August 28, it was already 20.45% on September 03.

Many analysts and influencers continue to sing difirambs to ethereum, preening that it will push bitcoin back to the second line at some point. A week ago, we cited the opinion of the creator of this altcoin, Vitalik Buterin, who expects the price of ETH to reach $30,000. In this case, the capitalization of the coin will rise to $3 trillion, and exceed the capitalization of all major technology companies in the world.

Analyst Aaron Arnold agrees with Buterin. In his YouTube channel (952 thousand subscribers) he named the fundamental factors that, in his opinion, will provoke the "explosive" growth of ethereum. The expert considers a key feature the recent change in the altcoin blockchain, which introduced a digital coin burning mechanism. The London update was released on ethereum network on August 05, which completely changed the transaction fee mechanism. A portion of the commission that miners previously received as a reward is now burned. According to the Ultrasound.Money service, more than 174,000 coins worth more than $565 million have been burned since the activation of this update. The average burning rate is 3.77 coins per minute.

The analyst named the decrease in net inflation in Ethereum as the second growth factor. According to Arnold's calculations, it is only 1.1% in annual terms at the moment, while the same indicator for bitcoin is at the level of 1.75%.

Arnold also recalled the multiple growth of funds blocked in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. In his view, this is the third factor that contributes to ethereum's price hike. According to DeFi Pulse, if the volume of blocked funds was $16 billion on January 1 of this year, this figure had already reached $82 billion by August 30 (an increase of 412% since the beginning of the year).

It should be noted that the dynamics of recent months confirms the rosy forecasts for ethereum in full. If BTC has risen in price by about 72% since July 20, ETH has grown by 130%. In the last week alone, this altcoin is up 22%, while bitcoin is up just 2.5%. The advantage of ethereum is also obvious at a distance of 12 months: plus 820% for ETH, plus 350% for BTC.

If Vitalik Buterin predicts the growth of his brainchild to $30,000, you can still hear the figure of $100,000 in the forecasts for the BTC/USD pair. It is exactly the height that British analyst and Northstar & Badcharts co-founder Kevin Wadsworth believes the pair will reach before the end of 2021. After that, the current bullish stage for the cryptocurrency will be completed.

Speaking of the first cryptocurrency, Wadsworth believes that its value will increase "in September, October and, presumably, in November." Some of the leading altcoins (such as ethereum), he said, could also rise significantly, since a rise in prices by 3-4 times is quite likely.

PlanB analyst is also confident that BTC will break the $100,000 level by Christmas. This is indicated by the signals of his S2F forecasting model.

Bitcoin's prospects for further growth are also indicated by year analysis of cryptocurrency behavior. Analysts at Twitter Root channel are confident that the main driver of BTC is halvings (a 2-time reduction in mining awards). They form a shortage of coins in the market, which positively affects the value of a digital asset. As for bitcoin, it has yet to fulfil the growth potential that halving put into it in May 2020.

Another growth driver, besides halving, is the US Federal Reserve's full-fledged printing press. Moreover, both corporations and individuals get substantial chunks of this dollar "pie". CNBC revealed that 11 per cent of young US residents have invested some of the capital they received in the form of assistance from the state during the COVID-19 pandemic in bitcoin and other coins. And 60 per cent of them are set to hold the asset long-term.

On the other hand, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital and the "golden beetle" Peter Schiff, said that he considers those who hold and do not sell bitcoins to be "real idiots". Investor John Paulson expressed a similar opinion. This billionaire called cryptocurrency a "bubble" in an interview with Bloomberg. In his view, the digital asset market will “ultimately prove worthless,” so it is not worth investing in it. “Cryptocurrencies are a bubble. I would describe them as a limited supply of nothing. If the demand is greater than the limited supply, the price will rise. But, if demand falls, the price will also fall. None of the cryptocurrencies have intrinsic value,” Paulson explained his point.

And in conclusion, as usual, our not very serious section of life hacks with another piece of advice on how to get rich on cryptocurrency. It turns out that you just need to purchase an electric car of the IM brand for this. Backed by the Internet giant Alibaba, electric car maker Zhiji Auto has developed an app for car owners to earn digital currency per mileage traveled.

Motorists will have to enter information about each kilometer they run in order to enter the mining pool. They will receive the Stone digital currency as a reward. The company plans to issue 500 coins 144 times a day for a start. The issue will be halved every four years to maintain liquidity.

The asset can be exchanged for various services of the company. When the car's mileage reaches 5,000 km, its owner will be able to purchase a next-generation smart driving system for coins or increase the battery capacity to 120 kWh.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

NordFX Sums up August: British Pound Back at Peak Popularity

NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in the last summer month of 2021.

The leader was once again a trader from India, account No.1584XXX, earning a profit of 326,278 USD. This impressive amount was earned through numerous trades on the British pound (GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF) and Euro (EUR/USD, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD) pairs.

The representative of China (account No.1397XXX) moved from third to second place with a profit of 210,308 USD, also obtained through trading operations with the British currency (GBP/USD and GBP/JPY pairs). Recall that their result was 179,327 USD in July.

This time the third step of the podium was taken by a NordFX client from Vietnam (account No.1416XXX) who earned 85,467 USD using XAU/USD, AUD/ JPY and... of course still the same pair GBP/USD as trading instruments.

The passive investment services:

- BangBigBossTop1 and EAs for Life signals remain among the leaders in CopyTrading for the second month in a row.

BangBigBossTop1 almost doubled its result over the past month, raising the signal yield from 398% to 729%. At the same time, the maximum drawdown remained the same at 55%. This failure occurred on the first day of summer, June 01, after which the yield curve is creeping upward. However, 55% is a quite serious drawdown, so the signal is still in the high-risk group.

The EAs for Life signal has shown a return of 1602% from November 2020 up to now. However, at the very start, on November 19, the maximum drawdown reached 75%, which is why it can also be classified as high-risk. Interestingly, almost 70% of trades on this signal are all on the same GBP/USD pair.

- Those investors who prefer minimal or moderate risk may find the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA in the NordFX PAMM service, interesting. This manager has increased their capital by 37% at a drawdown of less than 15% since January 2021.

There are other low-risk offers in the PAMM-service as well. For example, capital gains under TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 were 21% over five months with a maximum drawdown of less than 10%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, 23,498 USD, was credited in August to a partner from India, account No.1504ХXХ;
- next is a partner from the Philippines, account No.1352ХХХ, who received 6,608 USD;
- and, finally, their colleague from the Middle East (account no. 1569XXX), who earned 3,688 USD in commissions, closes the top three.

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- El Salvador entered into force a law recognizing bitcoin as a legal means of payment on Tuesday, September 7. President Nayib Bukele tweeted about this three minutes before midnight local time. “In three minutes, we will go down in history,” wrote Bukele.
Earlier, the head of state confirmed that the government of El Salvador acquired the first 200 BTC. The purchase is part of a new $150m fund approved by the authorities to secure the exchange of bitcoin and dollars.

- Bitcoin has been growing since July 20. And so, on the news that BTC became the official currency of El Salvador, its quotes fell 18% on Tuesday September 7, from $52,870 to $43,205, dragging down the entire crypto market.
The World Bank refused to support El Salvador in accepting bitcoin as a legal tender, and leading rating agencies such as Fitch were quick to point out the weaknesses of the country's government's move. In particular, El Salvador's insurance industry will be hit. Bonds rated B- are already circulating in it, and now the situation will be aggravated by the presence of an unstable cryptocurrency.
At the time of writing this review, the leading cryptocurrency has managed to win back some of its losses, and it is trading at around $46,500 per coin.

- Standard Chartered Global Banking Group analysts have been positive about the prospects for bitcoin and ethereum. The team of researchers compared ethereum to the financial market, where lending, insurance and exchange transactions take place. Bitcoin, in their opinion, is more like a currency. Therefore, given the wider range of ETH use cases, its capitalization may eventually reach the first cryptocurrency.
Standard Chartered predicts bitcoin prices in the $50,000-$175,000 range and ethereum in the $26,000-$35,000 range. Thus, these cryptocurrencies should grow threefold and tenfold, respectively. “While the return on ETH may outperform BTC in the future, the risks are also higher,” the bank said.

- Three-time National Basketball Association of North America (NBA) champion Stephen Curry asked Twitter users for advice on cryptocurrencies. “Just starting to play the crypto game... Do you have any advice? ', wrote the athlete. Several prominent crypto industry participants reacted to the tweet. MicroStrategy chief Michael Saylor said he spent a lot of time thinking about the issue, “and chose bitcoin.” “I bought over $3 billion worth of bitcoin as I consider it the future of digital property,” Saylor wrote.

- Senior strategist Mike McGlone called the $100,000 mark for bitcoin and the $5,000 mark for ethereum as "the path of least resistance" in the September Bloomberg Crypto Outlook report. “Crypto assets are entering a renewed second-half bull market after a serious drop from previous highs,” the Bloomberg expert noted.
He also characterized investment portfolios that do not have any of these cryptocurrencies as vulnerable. “We envision the future of bitcoin as a digital reserve asset that complements the dollar,” McGlone concluded.

- Ark Invest CEO Cathy Wood suggested that the cryptocurrency market is far from ending its rally. Despite the recent rally, the markets show no signs of a price bubble, she said. “We think bitcoin is much more than a store of value or digital gold. This is a new global monetary system that is completely decentralized and not subject to politicians' whims".
The top executive added that cryptocurrencies have become a generational phenomenon that evolves as technology advances. “The average investor does not understand how provocative the next five to fifteen years will be, as these S-curves feed off each other and enter exponential growth trajectories that we have not seen before,” says Wood.
At the same time, the expert believes that regulation is necessary for the maturity of the sector, which will affect bitcoin in the most positive way.

- US-based Crypto Asset Recovery company specializes in guessing “hundreds of millions or billions” of passwords. Its experts have concluded that bitcoin wallets whose passwords have been lost by their owners currently store billions of dollars’ worth of coins. At the same time, access to approximately 68-90 thousand BTC can be restored. This is about $4 billion at current prices.
According to a report from another company, Chainalsis, up to 20% of the existing 18.5 million bitcoins have been lost.

- According to the latest research, 17% of Australians own cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is the most popular digital asset, with Ethereum, Dogecoin and Bitcoin Cash taking the second, third and fourth places.
The majority of holders (30%) reported that they purchased crypto assets in order to diversify their portfolio. Second on the list of reasons (24%) was the rise in the price of bitcoins and altcoins. There are twice as many men as women among cryptocurrency holders. This is while the number of women holding crypto wallets has doubled since the beginning of the year.

- The management of the billionaire Bill Miller's Miller Opportunity Trust believes that bitcoin has significant growth potential, as this asset can act as a digital analogue of gold.
Miller Opportunity Trust has recently announced the purchase of 1.5 million shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust fund for $44.7 million. The report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) notes that the investment was made in anticipation of the asset's growth. Fund strategists and analysts have been monitoring bitcoin performance for a long time and chose the best time to buy.
“Bitcoin has been falling this quarter and the trust's shares have been traded at a significant discount to the value of the underlying asset, providing additional upside potential. While gold has a capitalization of $11 trillion, bitcoin only reaches $900 billion, a significant lag. We are in the early days of bitcoin adoption and the asset will be very volatile, but we believe the risk-to-reward ratio is attractive,” Miller Opportunity Trust said in a statement.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Traders Association Recognizes NordFX Customer Support as Best Service of 2021

What is the most important thing for a broker? Is it money? No, it isn't. Is it computers and software? It is not either. The most important thing is the clients, their trust, and their satisfaction with the level of services received. Therefore, the awards that the broker receives from traders' associations are of particular value. This is exactly the award from the Forex Traders Association, which has recognized NordFX Customer Support as the best in 2021.

Forex Traders Association (FTA) is a grassroots organization of 89 affiliates in America, Europe and Asia. FTA members represent individuals employed in the financial services industry across varying business models. FTA educates its members on market structure issues while representing their interests with legislators, regulators, and other industry associations. FTA events keep attendees informed on industry trends and provide unique networking opportunities, which contribute to career development and productivity. FTA is committed to promoting goodwill and fostering high standards of integrity in accord with its founding principle, dictum meum pactum, my word is my bond.

Since 2017, the members of this association have been evaluating various financial institutions in a wide variety of categories. And this year, 2021, NordFX has won in such an important category as Customer Support.

Customer Support can be called the face of the company, since it is this service that traders have to contact most often, addressing the most pressing issues related to opening an account, specifics of trading and investing, payments and partnerships. It is very important that this support is prompt and skilled. And in such a large international company as NordFX, it is also multilingual.

Over the years, traders from almost 190 countries have opened their accounts with NordFX, and it is very important that they communicate with the company representatives in a language they understand. You can currently ask your questions and get answers in 12 most popular and widespread languages. This can be done in a variety of ways: by phone, email, online chat, on forums and on social media, choosing the most convenient one. According to the assurances of the Customer Support experts, they will be glad not only to answer your questions, but also to hear criticisms and wishes. After all, it is so important not to rest on what you have achieved, but to constantly move forward.

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 13 - 17, 2021​

EUR/USD: Eurozone QE Recalibration

The ECB meeting on Thursday 09 September went off as expected with no surprises. The interest rate remained unchanged at 0%. The European regulator has proposed a “dovish” reduction in the monetary stimulus program (QE). More precisely, according to Christine Lagarde, the bank's governor, it is not even about “tapering” but “recalibrating” the program. And the decline in asset purchases in Q4 is just a reversal of the decision made in March to increase them. In doing so, the ECB remains flexible, and may change the pace of purchases early next year if necessary.

It is likely that the regulator does not want to take any sharp moves until its meeting in December, when it will have to present a clearer plan to wind down QE. In the meantime, it will monitor the development of the situation. The results of the parliamentary election in Germany, which will be held on September 26, will be of great importance. Especially since this will be the first election since 2005 in which the Christian Democratic Union will not be led by Angela Merkel.

In addition to the “recalibration” decision, the ECB raised its 2021 forecast for Eurozone GDP from 4.6% to 5.0% and for inflation from 1.9% to 2.2%. At the same time, the bank expects consumer price growth to fall to 1.7% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023. This suggests that its ultra soft monetary policy will last for a very long time. And there is no need to talk about raising interest rates earlier than the end of 2023 - early 2024.

Economic growth sides with the bulls on the EUR/USD pair, while the monetary policy sides with the bears. There have been no clear signals from the ECB, and they are unlikely to arrive until December. Therefore, the market will still be waiting for them from the US Fed to decide which currency to prefer.

The long life of the European QE program has been mentioned above. The Federal Reserve may begin to cut its QE already this year and complete it by the end of 2022. This view is held by the hawkish lobby in the leadership of the US Central Bank. FOMC member Michelle Bowman has even specifically stressed that disappointing employment statistics for August would not get the Fed out of the way.

This balance of strength plays on the dollar side and should send the EUR/USD pair south. At the moment, 50% of experts agree with this, supported by graphical analysis. The pair finished last week at 1.1810, and now it is expected to be supported at levels 1.1800, 1.1750, 1.1705 and 1.1665. 15% of analysts expect the pair to consolidate in the 1.1800 zone, while the remaining 35% are looking north. Resistance levels are 1.1845, 1.1908, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100.

The indicators on D1 are as follows. Among the oscillators, 50% point north, 10% south, and the remaining 40% are neutral. Among trend indicators, 35% are colored green, 65% are colored red.

The US economic calendar next week looks quite busy, and all the important statistics will be focused on the country's consumer market. The Consumer Price Index will be released on Tuesday, September 14, retail sales on Thursday, September 16, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will be released the following day.

GBP/USD: Movement with Almost Zero Result

Having drawn a parabola with a low of 1.3725, the GBP/USD pair returned on Friday September 10 to almost the same place it started on Monday (1.3865) and ended the five-day run at 1.3830. It never managed to break beyond the central part of channel 1.3700-1.4000, where it has been intermittently since February 2021.

If it continues to move north (this scenario is now supported by 60% of analysts), then the nearest strong resistance will be met at 1.3909, then 1.3960, 1.4000 and 1.4100. The bulls aim to refresh the June 01 high at 1.4250. In case of the opposite development (30% of experts' votes), it will be supported in zones 1.3730, 1.3665 and 1.3600. The remaining 10% of analysts vote for a sideways trend.

As for the oscillators on D1, 70% are colored green, 15% have taken a neutral position, and another 20% indicate that the pair is overbought. In trend indicators, like a week ago, the greens win 9-1.

Events in the coming week include the release of unemployment data in the UK on Tuesday, September 14, and statistics on the country's consumer market on Wednesday, September 15.

continued below...

 

[Stan NordFX]

USD/JPY: Another Zero Result Pair

Being a safe haven, the USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. So this time again, having started the five-day week at 109.70, it ended the week almost at the same place where it began, at the level of 109.85. Moreover, the trading range has become even narrower, keeping within 85 points: from 109.60 to 110.45. Those who are actively trading are hardly happy with such volatility. Although, on the other hand, it allows you to quite accurately place Stop Loss and Take Profit orders and taking into account the minimum spreads and leverage up to 1: 1000, you can make significant profits with the NordFX broker even in such a narrow corridor.

The experts' forecast for the near future looks like this: 50% of them side with the bears, 15% - with the bulls, and 35% have taken a neutral position. As for the indicators on D1, the red ones have 60% advantage among oscillators, the green ones have 10%, and those that have taken a neutral, grey position - 30%. Trend indicators have a 50-50 draw.

Support levels are 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 110.00, 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to reach the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: September 07: Rainy Day

The past week on the crypto market can be reduced to one day, Tuesday September 07. A law came into force in El Salvador on that day recognizing bitcoin as a legal means of settlement on par with the dollar. The country's young president, Nayib Bukele, twitted about this three minutes before midnight local time. “In three minutes we will go down in history,” he wrote. Earlier, the head of state confirmed that the government of El Salvador acquired the first 200 BTC. Bitcoin has been rallying since July 20 and has jumped above $52,000 since this announcement.

Roughly 20% of the country's GDP comes from remittances that Salvadorans working abroad send to their relatives. The huge commissions in USD that have to be paid are extremely unprofitable and enrich the US financial structures. This is what has been one of the main reasons for bitcoin adoption. However, for most Salvadorans, a third of whom do not even use the internet, digital assets still remain a mystery behind seven seals. According to surveys, about 70% of the population fear the innovations, and pensioners believe that the government wants to take away their USD pensions in this way. The result of these concerns and misunderstandings were protests and demonstrations that swept across the country.

The World Bank refused to support the initiative of Nayib Bukele, which jeopardizes the receipt of tranches from the IMF. According to analysts, El Salvador does not have specific laws to address the many nuances of bitcoin use, increasing the risks associated with money laundering and terrorist financing . And leading rating agencies such as Fitch believe El Salvador's insurance industry will be particularly hit. Bonds rated B- are already circulating in it, and now the situation will be aggravated by the presence of an unstable cryptocurrency.

September 7 clearly showed how unstable it is. In a matter of hours, bitcoin prices fell 18%, from $52,870 to $43,205, dragging down the entire crypto market.

Then the leading cryptocurrency managed to win back some of the losses, and it is trading in the range of $45,000-46,000 per coin at the time of writing the review, on Friday September 10.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has shifted into the fear zone, dropping from 74 to 46 points. The total crypto market capitalization fell below the important psychological level of $2 trillion to $1.975 trillion by September 08, but then rose to $2.100 trillion by the end of the working week.

Despite what has happened, many experts are still positive about the prospects for both bitcoin and ethereum. For example, senior strategist Mike McGlone called the $100,000 mark for bitcoin and the $5,000 mark for ethereum as "the path of least resistance" in the September Bloomberg Crypto Outlook report. “Crypto assets enter a renewed second-half year bull market after a serious drop from previous highs,” the Bloomberg expert noted, adding that he sees “bitcoin's future as a digital reserve asset to complement the dollar.”

The management of the billionaire Bill Miller's Miller Opportunity Trust also speaks about the significant growth potential of the BTC/USD pair, calling bitcoin a digital analogue of gold. “Gold capitalization is $11 trillion, bitcoin is only $900 billion, which is a significant lag. We are in the early days of bitcoin adoption and the asset will be very volatile, but we believe the risk to reward ratio is attractive," the Miller Opportunity Trust said in a statement filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Ark Invest CEO Cathy Wood also believes that the cryptocurrency market is far from the end of the rally. There are no signs of a price bubble in the markets, she said. “We think bitcoin is much more than a store of value or digital gold. This is a new global monetary system that is completely decentralized and not subject to politicians' whims". That being said, Cathy Wood thinks the next five to fifteen years will be very provocative, causing the quotes to draw S-shaped curves. And therefore, for the sector to mature, regulation is needed that will affect bitcoin in the most positive way.

Analysts at the international banking group Standard Chartered have also given a positive assessment of the outlook for bitcoin and ethereum. They compared the first with currency, and the second with the financial market, where lending, insurance and exchange transactions take place. Therefore, given the wider range of ETH use cases, its capitalization may eventually reach that of the first cryptocurrency.

Standard Chartered predicts bitcoin prices in the $50,000-$175,000 range and ethereum in the $26,000-$35,000 range. Thus, these cryptocurrencies should grow threefold and tenfold, respectively. “While the return on ETH may outperform BTC in the future, the risks associated with it are also higher,” the bank representatives said.

On average, 20% of analysts agree that the BTC/USD pair will cross over $50,000 in the coming week, their number increases to 40% onthe monthly forecast, and 80% agree that it will happen before the New Year.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- Analytics software provider MicroStrategy has purchased an additional 5,050 BTC at $48,099 for approximately $243 million. This was announced by the head of the company Michael Saylor. As of September 12, MicroStrategy owns 114,042 BTC. A total of $3.16 billion was spent on their purchase, thus the average cost was $27,713 per coin.
MicroStrategy was the first public company to invest a portion of its equity capital ($ 250 million) in bitcoin in August 2020. Later, the company's board of directors approved a policy to increase investment in digital gold at the expense of cash reserves. Other US companies that have made similar large investments in cryptocurrency include Jack Dorsey's Square and Elon Musk's Tesla. Now they are set to be joined by billionaire Alan Howard's Brevan Howard Asset Management hedge fund, which opened a dedicated BH Digital division for these purposes.

- US citizen of Canadian origin Galeb Alaumari was found guilty of helping North Korean military intelligence officers launder funds obtained as a result of hacking of cryptocurrency exchanges and hacker attacks on various companies and financial institutions. The WannaCry ransomware stole more than $1.3 billion in total. This includes the cyberattack on Sony Pictures Entertainment, the attempted hacking of banks in Vietnam, Bangladesh, Taiwan, Mexico, Malta, and the theft of various personal data.
Galeb Alaumari said he was responsible for cashing out funds through fake bank accounts and cryptocurrency. The defendant also confessed to sending out phishing emails. One of the victims of the scheme was a university in Canada, which transferred $9.4 million to fraudsters, believing it was communicating with a major construction company. The US Federal court sentenced Alaumari to 11 years in prison and a $30 million fine.

- Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood expects bitcoin to rise to $500,000 within five years. In a conversation with CNBC, Wood explained that the validity of her forecast will depend on whether companies continue to diversify their bitcoin reserves and whether institutional investors decide to place 5% of assets in it.
The head of Ark Invest noted that if she had to choose one cryptocurrency, she wouldn't hesitate to prefer bitcoin “because states now consider it a means of payment.”
Wood also highlighted the potential of ethereum. “Ethereum is experiencing an explosion of developer activity thanks to NFT and DeFi. I am fascinated by what is happening in DeFi, which is dramatically reducing the cost of infrastructure for financial services. Although I know that the financial industry does not welcome this right now. We are nevertheless likely to continue with the 60% bitcoin and 40% ethereum strategy,” she added.
Earlier, analysts at Standard Chartered bank predicted bitcoin to rise to $175,000 and ethereum to $35,000.

- After El Salvador recognized bitcoin as legal tender, Panama decided to follow suit. A cryptocurrency bill has been submitted to the Panamanian Congress. Panama does not have either a central bank currently or its own official currency, and the US dollar is used as a means of payment.
If the law is passed, legal entities and individuals of Panama will be able to freely use BTC and ETH as a means of payment for any government or commercial transactions. In addition, it is proposed to transfer public records to the blockchain and digitize legislative and administrative acts. “Such a move will help create a lot of jobs, attract investment and make the government more transparent,” the bill's initiators said.
Unlike El Salvador, the Panamanian option does not provide for the mandatory use of cryptocurrencies, that is, citizens and companies will be able to freely decide whether they want to accept cryptocurrencies or be limited to just the dollar.

- A recent survey by Sherlock Communications found that almost half of Brazilians agree that bitcoin should be accepted as the country's official currency, as El Salvador did. 48% of respondents voted for this (17% support without any doubt, 31% with some conditions). Only 21% rejected this idea (9% categorically, 12% moderately). The remaining respondents (31 percent) maintain a neutral stance.

- Artist Monica Rizzolli earned 1623 ETH (about $5.4 million at the time of the transaction) for the sale of the NFT series "Fragments of an Infinite Field" on the Art Blocks marketplace. The collection, consisting of 1,024 generative images, sold out on September 13 in less than an hour. The price for individual copies started from 10 ETH. Well-known NFT collectors Cozomo de' Medici and JDH spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy individual paintings.
The main parameter for creating the composition was the seasons, which set the colors and the phenomena depicted in the picture. Subsequently, some of the collection's items were resold on the OpenSea marketplace for 69 ETH (about $229,000).

- The State Bureau of Investigation of Ukraine has established the involvement of three employees of the cyber department of the Security Service of this country (SBU) in the kidnapping of a cryptocurrency trader.
According to the investigation, SBU agents received information about the trader having a large amount in cryptocurrency in autumn 2020. They organized his abduction, took him to the forest and beat him for an hour and a half, demanding that $200,000 be handed over to them. After being refused, the agents moved the abductee to police headquarters. They continued to extort funds There, lowering the amount to $80,000. The trader was forced to agree, and called his wife, who transferred 7 BTC (at the time of the transaction, the equivalent of the ransom amount) to the cryptocurrency wallet specified by the extortionists.
All three face charges of robbery with violence, kidnapping and abuse of authority. The investigation also examines the involvement of eight other SBU officers in the crime.

- Austrian economist Ronald-Peter Stöferle, managing partner of investment company Incrementum AG, said that "in five to ten years, bitcoin will rise to heights that we cannot currently imagine." At the same time, the top manager noted that the next phase of bitcoin's growth has not yet begun. According to him, the rise in price of bitcoin will occur when the asset becomes "a means of inflation protection during the ongoing large monetary experiments."

- Crypto trading veteran Ton Weiss predicts that bitcoin (BTC) will complete the current correction relatively soon and then rise sharply to six-digit levels.
Weiss explained during the new strategy session that the recent move in the BTC price is reminiscent of July, when the flagship cryptocurrency fell to a one-year low below $29,000 and then aggressively rose to $52,000 in less than six weeks.
According to Weiss, bitcoin is likely to fall short and give traders an opportunity to buy near the $40,000 level. After which it will bounce back sharply from that support and go up.
“The $40,000 low will come either next week or may be delayed until early October, and then we will cross that area with a rise to $50,000 in mid to late October. We will be over $65,000 by early November, and probably $100,000 by the end of December,” he said.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 20 - 24, 2021​

EUR/USD: Awaiting US Fed Decision

The dollar continues to strengthen, and the EUR/USD pair moves south. Starting on Monday September 13 at 1.1810, it ends the five-day run at 1.1730. The movement is certainly not very strong, only 80 points. But it must be taken into account that it was 1.1908 two weeks ago, on September 03.

US retail sales statistics were much better than expected. Sales showed a 0.7% increase in August, although according to the forecast, should have decreased by 0.8%. The number of repeat applications for unemployment benefits, which was supposed to decrease by 72K, fell by 187K.

Such strong statistics raised the likelihood that the Fed will announce the curtailment of $ 120 billion of the quantitative easing (QE) program to 55% at its next meeting on September 21-22.

As a result of the dollar emission, carried out by the FRS for the last year and a half, the US national debt has grown to 130% of GDP, and the budget deficit exceeds a trillion dollars. As a result, it is not just about winding down the fiscal and credit stimulus, but also a shift to a tight fiscal policy. The Democratic Party and President Biden's Administration have introduced a draft tax reform to the U.S. Congress, which includes a sharp increase in federal income taxes. If passed, the tax rate in such states as New York or California could exceed 60%. In addition, a three per cent wealth tax is proposed for the first time in US history.

The stock market responded to all this news with active sales. The S&P500 index fell 4,550 to 4435, the Dow Jones dropped 35517 to 34510 in two weeks. The gold price also fell 4.5%.

As for Europe, it was gripped by the real panic associated with the record rise in gas prices, which at one point reached $970 per 1,000 cubic metres. (It was 2.8 times lower a year ago). In anticipation of the autumn-winter heating season, the necessary energy reserves are only 75% (according to other estimates, only 50%). Such energy shortages could not only drive up prices but also reduce production. And this is fraught with a new recession and will definitely not benefit the common European currency.

By far the most important event of the coming week will be the Federal Reserve meeting on September 21-22. The interest rate is likely to remain unchanged at 0.25%. Therefore, first of all, investors are waiting for signals or even a concrete decision about the beginning of the QE curtailment. As we have written before, more members of the Fed's leadership are taking a hawkish stance and supporting a reduction in the asset purchase program as early as this year. And if the hawks win at this meeting, we can expect a sharp strengthening of the dollar, and a further fall in stock indices and gold prices.

At the moment, 60% of experts vote for the rise of the US currency and the decline of the EUR/USD pair, while 30%, on the contrary, believe that nothing will happen at the Federal Reserve meeting and the pair will win back north. The remaining 10% of analysts abstain from forecasts.

The indicator readings on D1 are as follows. Among the oscillators, 75% are colored red and 25% give signals that the pair is oversold. Among the trend indicators, 100% point to the south.

Support levels are 1.1705, 1.1665, 1.1600 and 1525. Resistance levels are 1.1770, 1.1800, 1.1845, 1.1908, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100.

In addition to the Fed meeting, events in the coming week include the release of German and Eurozone PMI statistics on Thursday September 23.

GBP/USD: BoE Hawks vs Fed Hawks

The British pound, although down against the dollar, is generally holding up better than the common European currency. As expected by most analysts (60%), the GBP/USD pair went north on Monday and tested the 1.3900 high the next day, helped by good statistics from the UK labor market. This was followed by a reversal, a gradual decline and the pair's finish at 1.3730. As a result, it failed to update the two-week low of 1.3725, although it was very keen to do so.

The GBP/USD pair hardly reacted to the above forecast inflation data in Britain (CPI rose 3.2% in August vs. 2.0% in July vs. 2.9% forecast). However, such indicators reinforce the hawks' position at the Bank of England. So far, the forces of "hawks" and "doves" are equal there. According to Bank Governor Andrew Bailey, four members supported raising the key interest rate and four opposed at the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Analysts believe that the likely rate hike in February 2022 will support the pound and further declines in the GBP/USD pair will be limited. If that expectation grows into confidence, the UK currency could move up strongly.

We will not only have an important meeting of the US Federal Reserve this week, but also a meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, September 23, from which investors also want to receive signals on the timing of tightening monetary policy. And here, in contrast to the EUR/USD forecast, most experts side with the pound. 65% of analysts vote for the growth of the GBP/USD pair, and 35% for its further decline. But the technical indicators' readings are 100% in line with the previous pair.

Resistances are at levels 1.3765, 1.3810, 1.3910, then 1.3960, 1.4000 and 1.4100. The bulls aim to refresh the June 01 high at 1.4250. Supports are in zones 1.3700-1.3725, 1.3665 and 1.3600.

continued below...

 

[Stan NordFX]

USD/JPY: Zero Again

The coming week can be safely called the week of the central banks. In addition to the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings, investors will learn the views of the People's Bank of China and the Bank of Japan on the economic situation in their countries on Wednesday September 22, as well as decisions on interest rates of their national currencies. With a probability close to 100%, the yen rate will remain the same, at minus 0.1%. But BOJ leaders have a lot more to think about: they need to fill the economy's 22 trillion yen (approx. $200 billion) deficit.

However, the USD/JPY pair reacts to such figures and the news quite calmly. Unnecessary excitement is not needed in a quiet Japanese harbor.

The USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. So this time, having started the five-day week at 109.85, it finished the week almost at the same place where it started, at the level of 109.95. At the same time, the experts' forecast can be considered to have come true: most of them (50%) sided with the bears last week and 35% took a neutral stance. Everything went exactly according to this scenario: at first the pair went down sharply, and then, having reached a strong medium-term support at 109.10, it failed to break it, turned around and went back.

The pair was supported by positive US retail sales statistics. In addition, according to a number of experts, the outflow of Japanese capital into foreign bonds did not allow it to go far down. Japanese investors hardly bought any bonds from other countries in 2021. But the sharp rise in US Treasuries yields pushed them to buy more than 1.76 billion yen worth of securities this Thursday. That has become a record since last November.

The experts' forecast for the near future looks like this: 50% of them side with the bears once again, 35% with the bulls, and 15% have taken a neutral stance. As for the indicators on D1, there is a complete diversity among the oscillators after such week results, while the green ones have a convincing advantage for the trend indicators.

Support levels are unchanged: 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The dream of the bears (it seems already unrealizable) is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 110.15, 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to reach the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Black to Slightly Greenish

El Salvador entered into force a law recognizing bitcoin as a legal means of payment on Tuesday, September 7. And the quotes of the flagship cryptocurrency fell by 18% in a matter of hours: from $52,870 to $43,205. The market is slowly trying to recover after this "black" day. At the time of writing this review, the BTC/USD pair had risen to the $47,300-48,000 zone. Of course, it's not much, which is why the past week can only be described as “slightly greenish.”

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen by only 2 points, from 46 to 48, and is in the central neutral zone. The total crypto market capitalization remained virtually unchanged, at $2.120 trillion compared to $2.100 trillion a week ago.

The news background looks “slightly greenish” too. The most interesting news is that Panama has decided to follow El Salvador's example. A draft law on cryptocurrencies was presented to the Congress of this country. Panama currently uses the US dollar as a means of payment. If the law is passed, it will also be possible to use BTC and ETH. Unlike El Salvador, the Panamanian option does not provide for the mandatory use of cryptocurrencies, that is, citizens and companies will be able to freely decide whether they want to accept cryptocurrencies or be limited to just the dollar.

The law has not yet been passed, but analysts are already wondering how the market will react to its entry into force. Should we wait for another "black" day of the calendar, as in the case of El Salvador?

One more piece of news. Analytics software provider MicroStrategy additionally purchased 5,050 BTC at $48,099. This was announced by the head of the company Michael Saylor. As of September 12, MicroStrategy owns 114,042 BTC. A total of $3.16 billion was spent on their purchase, thus the average cost was $27,713 per coin.

Other US companies that have made similar large investments in cryptocurrency include Jack Dorsey's Square and Elon Musk's Tesla. Now they are set to be joined by billionaire Alan Howard's Brevan Howard Asset Management hedge fund, which opened a dedicated BH Digital division for these purposes.

Influencers continue to predict a great future for major cryptocurrencies. So, Austrian economist Ronald-Peter Stoferle, managing partner of investment company Incrementum AG, said that "in five to ten years, bitcoin will rise to heights that we cannot currently imagine." At the same time, the top manager noted that the next phase of bitcoin's growth has not yet begun. According to him, the rise in price of bitcoin will occur when the asset becomes "a means of inflation protection during the ongoing large monetary experiments."

Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood expects bitcoin to rise to $500,000 within five years. In a conversation with CNBC, Wood explained that the validity of her forecast will depend on whether companies continue to diversify their bitcoin reserves and whether institutional investors decide to place 5% of assets in it.

The head of Ark Invest also highlighted the potential of Ethereum, saying that her company will likely continue to adhere to a 60% Bitcoin and 40% Ethereum strategy.

In terms of shorter-term forecasts, crypto trading veteran Ton Vays believes that the BTC/USD pair will complete the current correction relatively soon, and then rise sharply to six-digit levels. Vays explained that the recent move in the BTC price is reminiscent of July, when the flagship cryptocurrency fell to a one-year low below $29,000 and then aggressively rose to $52,000 in less than six weeks.

According to Ton Vays, bitcoin is likely to fall short and give traders an opportunity to buy near the $40,000 level. After that, it will sharply bounce off this support and rush upward. “The $40,000 low will come either next week or may be delayed until early October, and then we will cross that area with a rise to $50,000 in mid to late October. We will be over $65,000 by early November, and probably $100,000 by the end of December,” he said.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- The risk of default by Evergrande, one of China's largest construction companies, which has accumulated 2 trillion yuan ($309 billion) in debt, triggered panic in financial markets on September 20. Investors began to get rid of risk assets, tumbling stock markets. The cryptocurrency market did not escape the sell-off either. While bitcoin was at $52,870 on Monday, it fell short term to $39,666 on Wednesday, losing up to 25% of its value.
Evergrande's structure includes 200 offshore and 2,000 Chinese companies operating in multiple countries, according to Bloomberg. The 2 trillion-yuan liability is the world largest debt and is equivalent to 2% of China's GDP. Evergrande's net worth is about $3.9 billion, nearly 80 times less than its $309 billion debt.

- The US Treasury has included the Suex cryptocurrency exchanger in the sanctions list, as well as 25 addresses in the bitcoin, ethereum and tether networks. According to the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), at least eight ransomware, scam projects and darknet marketplaces passed through Suex.
Chainalysis, an analytics company involved in the investigation, found that Suex had received more than $480 million in bitcoin since February 2018. At least $160 million of that amount is related to illegal activities.

- The president of Euro Pacific Capital, a well-known supporter of gold Peter Schiff once again criticized bitcoin and allowed the imminent end of the "cryptocurrency bubble". “There are now more than 12,000 tokens, 84 of which currently have a market cap above $1 billion. There's nothing special about bitcoin. Altcoin supply will continue to grow until the cryptocurrency bubble bursts. Supply will exceed demand and prices will collapse almost overnight," Schiff wrote. In his view, the first cryptocurrency would “only take money from the pockets of people stupid enough to buy it.”
In the comments, the financier reaffirmed his commitment to the precious metal and pointed out that the value of gold is "in its usefulness." “You can do more with gold than with any other metal, and it does not lose its unique properties over time,” said Schiff.

- Bitcoin is a monetary standard that will become a global reserve currency one day. This opinion was expressed by the head of SkyBridge Capital Anthony Scaramucci. He urged people to learn more about the crypto industry, even if they are skeptical about the digital asset market. According to him, it is important to understand “why you don’t want to own digital gold”.
“Bitcoin is volatile because it is at an early stage of adoption. Amazon had the same volatile curve 24 years ago. But if you invested $10,000 in Amazon shares at the IPO, you would receive $21 million today,” explained Scaramucci. He advised newcomers to the crypto industry to allocate up to 5% of their investment portfolio to digital assets, explaining the recommendation as high profits if the market grows and low losses if it collapses.

- An anonymous bitcoin wallet owner who bought $8.1k worth of cryptocurrency in 2012 has come forward almost 10 years later. According to the profile publication Decrypt, their account held more than 616 bitcoins. During its storage, each coin has increased in value nearly 3,500 times, with the total value of its assets approaching $28 million.

- The fair price of Ethereum based on network activity is $1,500, JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtsoglou said in a Markets Insider commentary. “We're looking at hashrate and unique address counts to try to understand the value of ethereum,” added the JPMorgan strategist. According to him, the second-most capitalized cryptocurrency network is less attractive than its price suggests. Panigirtzoglou noted the growing competition from Solana, Cardano and other blockchains.
For reference, the ETH price has dropped 40% from $4,020 to $2,650 this week from September 20-22.

- The opposite point of view is held by cryptocurrency trader and analyst Lark Davis. He believes that the ETH rate will reach $10,000 in the coming weeks. The analyst notes that large investors, banks and corporations continue to invest in the ethereum ecosystem.
Davis cited its limited supply in the market as another factor in favor of the growth of this altcoin. Currently, the reserves of the second cryptocurrency on cryptocurrency wallets are at record lows. This shows the reluctance of investors to sell their holdings in ETH. “87 per cent of coins have not moved for more than three months. 87 per cent! That's crazy, “ the analyst exclaimed.
In addition, a significant shortage of ethereum is created by burning of underlying transaction fees as well as by an increase in ethereum 2.0 staking deposits.

- While the price of bitcoin has climbed from $31,000 to $52,000 since the end of July, long-term holders have sold the coins they purchased between the $18,000 and $31,000 levels, consistently making a profit of about $1 billion per day. This data is provided in the latest report by Glassnode. Long-term in this classification refers to holders who received their coins more than 155 days ago.
“Note that these prices formed in the 2020-2021 bull market and suggest that long-term bitcoin investors may be becoming more active traders, record profits, use derivatives to hedge risks, or speculate more than in Q2,” Glassnode experts write. “This may also suggest uncertainty in the current market structure, as coins that have been purchased at close to current prices are being spent.”
At the same time, the authors note that despite the increased sales from this group, there was also a strong demand. As confirmation, they point to the fact that the aggregate balance of bitcoin on the exchanges continued to decline and hit a new multi-year low of 13% of turnover before the collapse on September 20.

- The FBI received over 1,800 complaints related to cryptocurrency fraud on dating sites between January 1, 2021, and July 31, 2021. Victims' losses are estimated at $133.4 million.
People are more likely to suffer from depression and loneliness during the pandemic, so dating and socializing apps have become very popular. First, the scammers establish "contact" with the potential victim. After getting the victim's trust, the attacker claims to be versed in cryptocurrency investments and trading and directs the person to a fraudulent site. Once a user has invested a certain amount, the scammer allows them to withdraw the “first profit”: a small amount of money, thus gaining the trust of the victim. The scammer then advises the user to deposit a larger sum. If the “client” stops receiving funds, then communication with the client ends as well.

- Financial market experts have recently conducted a study, the subject of which was the proposal of the famous car manufacturer Henry Ford to replace gold with the so-called "energy currency". The issue was raised by him in the New York Tribune as early as 1921. The study culminated in the fact that Ford's proposed project to launch a new currency is strikingly similar to the description of BTC, which was presented in 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto.
The front page of the newspaper featured an article detailing the "energy currency" that Ford believed could end wars and become the backbone of a new era's monetary system.
The auto industrialist proposed replacing gold with a currency that would fully function on the basis of "units of force", for which he could build a huge hydroelectric power station. Thus, the potentially created currency would have been able to become the most stable and secured monetary unit of the time and would prevent a massive increase in the rich profiting from speculation with gold.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 27 - October 01, 2021​

EUR/USD: Close Start of QE End

The Fed did not make any changes to its monetary policy at its meeting on September 21-22. However, the regulator made it clear in its commentary that it was possibly ready to start a gentle tapering of the monetary stimulus (QE) program as early as November.

More than half of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members believe that interest rate hikes will begin a few months after the end of QE, that is, even before the end of 2022. In total, in the period 2022-2024 the Fed plans to raise rates at least 6 times. (For comparison, the ECB will only start doing this in three years).

Such prospects were in favor of the dollar, the DXY index rose to 93.498, and the EUR/USD pair renewed its monthly minimum, falling to 1.1683.

There was a slim chance that the start of QE tapering would be announced now. But that hasn't happened, and the Fed will continue to print new dollars for now in a volume of at least $120bn a month. The amount of money on US household balance sheets increased to $16.5 trillion in Q2 and will continue to grow in the near future (it was $12.7 trillion at the end of 2019). But there is bound to come a time when the population starts spending that money supporting the American economy after QE winds down.

Such statistics have given investors confidence in a bright future and revived their risk appetites, pushing the S&P500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones stock indexes up again. By the end of the week, the stock market had virtually compensated for the losses suffered on Monday due to information about the possible bankruptcy of Evergrande, one of China's largest construction companies. Its debt of 2 trillion yuan ($309 billion) is the world largest and is nearly 80 times its net worth (about $3.9 billion). According to Bloomberg, Evergrande includes 200 offshore and 2,000 Chinese companies operating in many countries, so the bankruptcy of such a giant would deal a powerful blow to the global economy.

The recovery of investors' interests in risky assets and the outflow of money to the stock market reversed the trend of the EUR/USD pair to the north on Thursday. The weakening of the dollar accelerated after the publication of weak data from the US labor market.

Initial jobless claims rose to 351,000 in the week, against the forecast of 320,000. The number of repeated applications for state benefits increased to 2.8 million. This is certainly not a disaster, but a wake-up call for the Fed. And if the NFP and other indicators, which will be published on October 8, turn out to be disappointing as well, the regulator may consider delaying QE tapering for a more distant period.

Both of these factors helped EUR/USD bulls raise the pair to 1.1750 on September 23. As for the end of the working week, the pair struck a final chord at around 1.1715 after the speech of FRS Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday evening.

The fact that the US Central Bank can start winding down QE in 1-2 months and complete the process by mid-2022, after which it will proceed with an interest rate hike, allows forecast a stronger dollar in the medium term. Most experts (65%) expect a rise in the US currency and a further decline in the EUR/USD pair in the coming week. They are supported by 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1. The remaining 35% of analysts vote in favor of the pair's growth, and 15% of oscillators also indicate that it is oversold.

Support levels are 1.1705, 1.1685, 1.1600 and 1525. Resistance levels are 1.1750, 1.1800, 1.1845, 1.1908, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100.

Of the events to come, Germany's federal elections, which will be held on Sunday 26 September and after which Chancellor Angela Merkel will leave office, should be noted. US capital and durable goods orders will be released on Monday September 27. There will be statistics on the consumer markets of Germany and the Eurozone on the last day of the month, as well as data on the US GDP. And finally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released on Friday October 01.

GBP/USD: Bank of England Hawks Win

The past week can be safely called the week of Central banks. Not only the US Federal Reserve, but also the Banks of England, Japan and Switzerland flourished it with their meetings. And while the latter two are not ready to sweep course just yet, the UK regulator has erupted with hawkish rhetoric all of a sudden.

The Bank of England has been extremely passive over the past few years, following in the wake of the ECB and the Fed. And it lasted until the middle of last week. But, apparently, leaving the EU made such behavior impossible. At its meeting on Thursday, September 23, the bank made decisions that made the market literally flinch, and the GBP/USD pair soar by 140 points, from 1.3608 to 1.3748. The regulator not only announced its plans to tighten monetary policy, but also outlined the timing of the refinancing rate increase. The first increase to 0.25% is due in May 2022 and it will rise to 0.50% in December.

In contrast to the Fed's vague timetable, the Bank of England's plan outlined fairly clear milestones, which, as already stated, the market received with enthusiasm. But the GBP/USD pair did not go above 1.3748, because despite the lack of concrete figures at the moment, the Fed's massive plan to end QE will be implemented, and in a short enough time frame. This cooled the fervor of the pound supporters, and as a result, the week-long bout of bulls and bears on the GBP/USD pair ended with a victory for the latter: starting the five-day run at 1.3730, it ended it at 1.3670.

Technical analysis is also on the bear side: both oscillators and trend indicators are red on D1. It is not only the trend of the last two weeks that affects, but also the dynamics of the three months of the past summer. But as for the experts who forecast the week ahead, the vote is 50 to 50.

Resistances are at levels 1.3690, 1.3765, 1.3810, 1.3910, then 1.3960, 1.4000 and 1.4100. The bulls aim to refresh the June 01 high at 1.4250. Supports are in zones 1.3640, 1.3600, 1.3570 and 1.3520.

In terms of macro statistics, the UK GDP for Q2 2021 will be released on Thursday 30 September. And, while the previous value was positive (+4.8%), it is now forecast to go negative, minus 1.5%.

continued below...