Weekly Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– One of the speakers at the annual Bitcoin-2024 conference in Nashville (USA) was the United States presidential candidate Donald Trump. He promised to dismiss the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, if elected, and to appoint regulators who are friendly to the crypto industry to key positions. "From now on, the rules will be written by those who love your industry, not hate it," Trump declared, receiving a thunderous applause from the audience.
The politician also intends to end the war on digital assets, transform the USA into the world's cryptocurrency capital, and establish a strategic national bitcoin reserve. Trump also stated that "one day," bitcoin will surpass gold and silver in market capitalisation.
Trump's Republican colleague, Senator Cynthia Lummis, went even further. She has prepared a bill requiring the US government to create a reserve of 1 million bitcoins within 5 years. "The goal is to recognise bitcoin as a durable asset. This is digital gold," Lummis stated.

– The head and founder of MN Trading, Michael van de Poppe, commented: "Bitcoin has once again reached the $70,000 mark. Donald Trump's speech had a positive impact, which may allow bitcoin to test its all-time high in the coming weeks. As long as it stays above $60,000-62,000, we have good prospects for further growth."
Some experts, such as Dan Crypto Traders and Tanaka, predict that BTC could rise to $100,000, and ETH to $8,000-10,000, while analyst Daan de Rover, known on the social media platform X as Crypto Rover, expects the price of BTC to exceed $800,000. De Rover bases his forecast on Trump's remarks that bitcoin could surpass gold in capitalisation. According to the analyst's calculations, if this happens, the value of one BTC would be exactly $813,054.

– Former NSA and CIA special agent, Edward Snowden, who has found asylum in Russia, also spoke at Bitcoin-2024 via internet connection. During his speech, he urged American voters to remain critical and not to trust politicians blindly. He mentioned that political figures and parties have their own agendas and are simply trying to garner the support of the bitcoin community. Therefore, it is important to "cast a vote, but not join a cult."
Snowden also expressed serious concerns about privacy issues related to the first cryptocurrency. He reminded the audience that bitcoin transactions are not entirely anonymous, despite common misconceptions, as they can be traced back to specific individuals. "They know what you read, what you buy, who you send [bitcoin] to, whom you support politically, where your donations go: this information is available to them. They can draw conclusions about your thinking and beliefs," Snowden stated.

– Another speaker at the conference in Nashville was the founder of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, who announced that bitcoin prices would reach $13 million by 2045. According to his calculations, with the current bitcoin price at around $65,000, its market capitalisation is approximately $1.3 trillion, only 0.1% of the world's wealth. With an annual return of about 29%, digital gold could reach $280 trillion and 7% by 2045.
Saylor noted that this is an average projection. If a bullish scenario unfolds, the price of 1 BTC could reach $49 million, accounting for 22% of global wealth. Conversely, if a bearish scenario occurs, the figures would be $3 million and 2%, respectively.
The MicroStrategy founder is confident that all physical capital, from stocks and bonds to cars and real estate, obeys the laws of thermodynamics, including entropy, the tendency for energy to dissipate over time. "Entropy dilutes the value of physical assets. It drains capital from them." According to Saylor, the main cryptocurrency is an exception to this rule because it "does not exist in the physical world" and possesses "infinite lifespan." "Bitcoin is immortal, immutable, and intangible," he stated, calling it "the solution to our economic dilemma."

– The University of Wyoming (USA) has established the UW Bitcoin Research Institute, as announced by the university's director, Bradley Rettler. The announcement highlighted that many studies on bitcoin are of poor quality because they are conducted by individuals who do not fully understand the asset. "Some researchers are not even aware of the supply limit: perhaps the most defining characteristic of bitcoin. Others make erroneous assumptions about the demographics of its users. [...] Such mistakes find their way into journalism and politics," Rettler wrote, adding that the institute aims to produce high-quality publications.

– Scammers have published a fake video on YouTube, appearing to show Elon Musk speaking at the Bitcoin-2024 conference and promising a free cryptocurrency giveaway. The deepfake of the Tesla and SpaceX CEO was created using artificial intelligence. In the video, users are instructed to send any amount of BTC, ETH, DOGE, or stablecoins like USDT to a specified address. In return, the scammers promise to double the sent amount.
It is reported that over 70,000 people have viewed this "broadcast," resulting in several tens of thousands of dollars being "donated" to the scammers. It is worth noting that theft using deepfakes of Musk has occurred repeatedly. In November 2023, perpetrators promoted another cryptocurrency giveaway in his name, promising a 200% bonus on the amount invested.

– The well-known analyst known as Plan B has forecasted that the price of bitcoin will rise to $140,000. After the flagship cryptocurrency reached $70,000 on 29 July, he wrote: "I expect the price of bitcoin to double from its current value within 3-5 months."
Plan B explained his prediction by noting that following the halving in April, "miner revenue has hit rock bottom, meaning less profitable miners have stopped operations. Only the most profitable ones (with the latest equipment and the lowest electricity costs) have survived." He added, "The battle is over; difficulty will continue to rise. Investors will take over the pricing," indicating that the market dynamics will increasingly be influenced by investor sentiment and actions.

– Economist and trader Alex Krüger believes that bitcoin is in a super cycle. According to him, Wall Street and the traditional financial world have fundamentally changed the structure of the digital asset market. Due to the new nature of the crypto market, downward volatility will be much more limited, and buying activity will significantly increase due to pressure from Wall Street to expand access to digital assets.
"The essence of the super cycle," explained Krüger, "is not that we no longer have bear markets or corrections and are just going up. It means that upcoming corrections will be shallow, and this won't last forever."
"The main driving force behind this change," Krüger continues, "is that Wall Street is now involved, and ETFs [exchange-traded funds] are here, which has radically altered the market structure. [...] The proportion of bitcoin ownership is currently very low in aggregate terms and certainly within portfolios. Wall Street's marketing push suggests that this figure should be around 2%." Based on this, the economist believes the super cycle will continue until this target is reached.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

 

[Stan NordFX]

July Results: Bitcoin Surpasses Gold in NordFX Trader Rankings



The brokerage company NordFX has released the performance results of its clients' trading activities for July 2024. The evaluation also covered the social trading services, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profits earned by the company's IB partners.



● The highest profit in July was achieved by a trader from East Asia, account No.1609XXX, with a profit of 50,792 USD. This solid result was driven by the strengthening of bitcoin (BTC/USD).

– The second position in the ranking of the most successful traders of the month was secured by a client from South Asia, account No.1749XXX, who earned 45,106 USD from trades involving the 'golden' currency pair XAU/USD.

– The third place on the July podium was taken by a compatriot (account No.1771XXX), who achieved a result of 42,461 USD through operations with both the XAU/USD pair and the relatively exotic GBP/NZD pair.



● The following situation unfolded in NordFX's passive investment services:

– In the PAMM service, we continue to observe the account Zenix 786, which has shown a profit of 106% over 131 days. The account Gold24 also attracted attention, with its name suggesting exclusive trading in the XAU/USD pair. The number '24' in the name might refer to 24-carat purity (pure gold without any additives) or perhaps that trading is conducted 24 hours a day. Both interpretations are possible. Regardless, the manager of this account managed to achieve a profit of over 60% in just 62 days. The results of both accounts are impressive; however, the maximum drawdown, while not dramatic, is also not the smallest – 36% and 32%, respectively.

– On the CopyTrading showcase, highly attractive signals, at least at first glance, occasionally appear among the startups, showing astronomical returns. Currently, the signal Bro has surged to the forefront, increasing the initial deposit by 554% in just 6 days! However, the maximum drawdown for the same period has already approached 43%. Therefore, while these super-results are impressive, it's important to understand that they are achieved through super-aggressive trading. When subscribing to such signals, one must consider that the risk of losing invested funds is also extremely high.

Among the more stable and calm signals, NordFXSrilanka and Quiet_trade_USD stand out. While their profits are significantly lower than those of Bro, they still far exceed the interest rates on USD bank deposits. For instance, NordFXSrilanka showed a 47% increase over 205 days with a maximum drawdown of less than 10%, and Quiet_trade_USD yielded a profit of 12% since early March with a drawdown of only around 15%. It is worth noting that the longevity (or lifespan) of signals and PAMM accounts, along with maximum drawdown, are crucial indicators confirming that they won't collapse like a house of cards in the face of the first challenging situation in the financial markets.



● Among NordFX's IB partners, the TOP-3 is as follows:

– The first place was taken by a partner from South Asia, account No.1576XXX, who was rewarded with 16,445 USD in July;

– The next position was secured by another partner from South Asia (account No.1618XXX), who received 13,859 USD;

– Finally, rounding out the top three is a third partner from the same region, account No.1229XXX, who received a reward of 6,610 USD.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 05 – 09, 2024​

EUR/USD: What the ECB and Fed Will Do

● There was a significant amount of news last week, so we will highlight and analyse only the most important ones.
Germany set the tone for European statistics, with consumer inflation rising instead of falling. According to the initial estimate, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased year-on-year from 2.2% to 2.3%, and month-on-month from 0.1% to 0.3%.
The following day, similar figures for the Eurozone as a whole were released. Preliminary data showed that CPI in July rose to 2.6% (y/y) compared to 2.5% in June, whereas the markets had expected a decline to 2.4%. Alarmingly, core inflation (Core CPI), which excludes volatile components such as food and energy prices, remained at 2.9% for the third consecutive month, against a forecast of 2.8%.
Some economic media outlets described this as an "unpleasant surprise" for the European Central Bank. It was anticipated that the ECB, at its meeting on 12 September, following the first rate cut in June, would take a second step and lower it by another 25 basis points to 4.00%. However, given the unexpected rise in CPI, this task becomes more challenging. Bloomberg currently forecasts that inflation will decrease to 2.2% in August. But, considering the current trend, this may not happen. It is quite possible that if the figure does not decline, the ECB may pause and keep the rate unchanged. This is further supported by the preliminary estimate of Eurozone GDP, which grew from 0.4% to 0.6% (y/y) in Q2. This indicates that the European economy is capable of coping with the regulator's fairly tight monetary policy.
● Another significant event of the week was the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve on 30-31 July. It was decided to keep the key rate unchanged at 5.50%, where it has been since July 2023.
In the accompanying comments and Jerome Powell's speech, it was noted that inflation has decreased over the past year and, despite progress towards the 2.0% target, it remains somewhat elevated. It was also stated that economic activity continues to grow at a steady pace, with job growth slowing and the unemployment rate, though increased, remaining low. (The ADP employment report for the US, also released on 31 July, was disappointing, showing a decline from 155K to 122K).
CME derivatives estimate the probability of three Fed rate cuts by the end of the year at 74%. However, considering the cautious approach of the US central bank to economic regulation and its aim to maintain a balance between economic growth, the labour market, and reducing inflationary pressure, the Fed may limit itself to just two or even one act of monetary easing this year. The next Fed meeting will take place on 18 September and will be accompanied by an updated medium-term economic forecast, which will shed light on many issues concerning the market.
● The dollar's position could have been strengthened by key business activity data and US labour market figures released on 1 and 2 August, respectively. However, the PMI in the manufacturing sector showed a decline from 51.6 points to 49.6, falling below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction. Additionally, according to the report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of non-farm payrolls (NFP) in the country increased by only 114K in July, which is lower than both the June figure of 179K and the forecast of 176K. Other data in the report indicated that the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.3%.
● After the publication of this data, Bloomberg reported that the likelihood of a 50 basis points rate hike in September increased to 90%. Consequently, the EUR/USD pair soared to 1.0926, then finished the working week at 1.0910.
As of the evening of 2 August, all 100% of surveyed analysts consider this rise in the pair to be temporary and expect the dollar to regain its positions soon, with the pair heading south. In technical analysis, 100% of trend indicators on D1 hold the opposite view, pointing north. Among oscillators, 75% point north, while the remaining 25% look south. The nearest support for the pair is located in the 1.0825 zone, followed by 1.0775-1.0805, 1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0565, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, and 1.0370. Resistance zones are found around 1.0950-1.0980, 1.1010, 1.1050-1.1065, 1.1140-1.1150, and 1.1240-1.1275.
● In the upcoming week's calendar, Monday, 5 August, is notable for the release of the US services sector PMI. The following day, data on retail sales volumes in the Eurozone will be released. On Thursday, 8 August, the traditional statistics on the number of initial jobless claims in the United States will be published. At the very end of the working week, on Friday, 9 August, we will learn the revised consumer inflation (CPI) data for Germany, the main engine of the European economy.


GBP/USD: BoE Doves vs. Hawks, Score 5:4


● After the US Federal Reserve meeting, the market's attention shifted to the Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday, 1 August. The interest rate on the pound had been at a 16-year high of 5.25% since August 2023. Now, for the first time in over four years, the British central bank lowered it by 25 basis points to 5.0%. The decision was made with a narrow margin – five members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for the reduction, while four voted to keep the rate unchanged. It should be noted that this outcome generally matched forecasts. The markets had estimated the probability of a rate cut at just 61%, despite the country's inflation being at the target level of 2.0% for the past two months.
As noted, this move was challenging for the regulator, as several Committee members expressed concerns about rising wages and persistent inflation in the services sector. Former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak welcomed the BoE's decision as "good news for homeowners" and a sign that the Labour Party had "inherited a strong economy." However, he also expressed concern that wage increases in the public sector could jeopardise further rate cuts.
● Let us quote some key points from the Bank of England's statement following the meeting. The regulator significantly revised the country's GDP growth forecast for 2024 to +1.25% (May forecast: 0.5%), with expected growth of +1.0% in 2025 and +1.25% in 2026. At the same time, the BoE anticipates "slackness as GDP slows and unemployment rises." According to the Bank of England's forecast, the unemployment rate will be 4.4% in Q4 2024, 4.7% in Q4 2025, and the same in Q4 2026.
Regarding consumer inflation, the CPI is expected to rise to approximately 2.75% in the second half of 2024. However, over the next three years, the Consumer Price Index is expected to fall to 1.5%, based on market interest rates. The BoE forecasts the interest rate at 4.9% in Q4 2024, 4.1% in Q4 2025, and 3.7% in Q4 2026. It is also stated that the "MPC will ensure that the bank rate remains sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary until the risks of inflation returning are mitigated." Additionally, the statement includes the obligatory phrase that the scope of monetary policy will be determined and adjusted at each meeting.
● The market reacted to the rate cut to 5.0% with a weakening of the British currency and a drop in the GBP/USD pair to the level of 1.2706. However, the pound was subsequently supported by weak US labour market statistics, leading to a sharp upward movement of the pair towards the end of the working week, ultimately closing at 1.2804.
● All 100% of experts, when giving forecasts for the coming days, expect the dollar to strengthen and the pair to decline, just as with EUR/USD. As for the technical analysis on D1, 50% of trend indicators are green, while the other 50% are red. Among oscillators, only 10% are on the green side, another 10% are neutral grey, and 80% are on the red side, with 15% of them signalling oversold conditions.
In case the pair falls, support levels and zones are expected at 1.2700-1.2750, then 1.2680, 1.2615-1.2625, 1.2540, 1.2445-1.2465, 1.2405, and 1.2300-1.2330. If the pair rises, it will encounter resistance at levels 1.2855-1.2865, then 1.2925-1.2940, 1.3000-1.3040, and 1.3100-1.3140.
● No significant macroeconomic data publications regarding the state of the UK economy are expected in the coming days.

 

[Stan NordFX]

USD/JPY: New Surprises from the Yen and Bank of Japan

● The USD/JPY pair has recently earned titles such as "the package of surprises" and "the most intriguing pair on Forex." Last week, with the help of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), it confirmed these titles. What everyone had been waiting for finally happened – the Japanese central bank raised the key interest rate at its meeting on Wednesday, 31 July. What was unexpected was the magnitude of the increase: 150 basis points, from 0.10% to 0.25%, reaching a level not seen since 2008. This decision was made by the Board of Directors with a vote of 7 to 2. Throughout July, the regulator and other representatives of Japanese financial authorities had consistently expressed their readiness to tighten monetary policy. However, the decisiveness of this move caught many market participants by surprise.
"If the economy and prices move in line with our forecasts, we will continue to raise interest rates," said Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda at the post-meeting press conference. "In fact, we haven't significantly changed our forecast since April. We don't consider 0.5% to be a key barrier for rate hikes."
● At the recent meeting, the regulator also presented a detailed plan to slow down the large-scale bond purchases, taking another step towards gradually ending the decade-long cycle of economic stimulus. It decided to reduce the monthly bond purchases to ¥3 trillion ($19.6 billion) from the current ¥6 trillion in Q1 2026. This decision followed a survey of market participants on the extent to which the regulator should scale back the large purchases. Some called for a threefold reduction, while others suggested a one-and-a-half times cut. The Bank chose a middle ground, deciding to halve the purchases.
● The decision to raise the rate was made against the backdrop of rising inflation in the country, increasing wages, and service prices. Another reason, undoubtedly, was the weakening yen, which had been barely prevented from a complete collapse through numerous currency interventions. At the beginning of July, the Japanese currency weakened to a 38-year low against the US dollar. This caused serious concern in society, contributed to inflation, and negatively affected the government's rating. Now, officials can proudly present themselves to their fellow citizens – on 2 August, the USD/JPY pair recorded a low at 146.41, a level last seen on 12 March 2024. Thus, thanks to currency interventions and the rate decision, the yen strengthened by more than 1,550 points in just four weeks.
● Thus, the Bank of Japan is tightening monetary policy (QT) against the backdrop of easing policies (QE) in the US and Europe. This is happening amid a -1.8% (y/y) contraction in the country's GDP in Q2. Household spending is also declining despite rising wages. If the Japanese central bank continues to raise rates rapidly in an effort to curb inflation and support the national currency, it could push the economy back into sustained deflation and lead to a more severe GDP contraction.
● The USD/JPY pair ended the past five-day period at 146.52. The expert forecast for the near future is as follows: 65% voted for a correction and a rebound of the pair upwards, while the remaining 35% took a neutral position. The number of supporters for further strengthening of the yen was zero this time. However, it is worth remembering the pair's titles mentioned at the beginning of the review, which have often seen it act contrary to any forecasts. All 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 point to a further decline of the pair, although a quarter of the oscillators indicate it is oversold. The nearest support level is around 145.90-146.10, followed by 144.30-144.70, 143.40, 141.60, 140.25-141.00, 138.40-138.75, 137.20, 135.35, 133.75, 130.65, and 129.60. The nearest resistance is in the 148.30-148.90 zone, followed by 150.85-151.00, 154.65-155.20, 157.20-157.40, 158.25, 158.75-159.00, 160.20, 160.85, 161.80-162.00, and 162.50.
● No significant macroeconomic data releases regarding the state of the Japanese economy are scheduled for the coming days.

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– Another bearish bitcoin cycle started on 29 July after the BTC/USD pair reached a high of $70,048. The primary cryptocurrency continues to be pressured by the potential sale of coins returned to creditors of the bankrupt exchange Mt.Gox, as well as those assets confiscated by law enforcement agencies, including the US.
The decline in quotations is occurring amidst investors fleeing risks and a global stock sell-off triggered by concerns about the prospects of the world economy in general and the economies of countries such as Japan and the US. Negative sentiments are further exacerbated by tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the policy of the new US president to be elected in November.
On Friday, 02 August, bitcoin spot ETFs experienced the largest outflow of funds in the past three months. The head of cryptocurrency investments at Evergreen Growth, Hayden Hughes, believes that digital assets have become victims of the unwinding of carry trade operations using the Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates. However, the more apparent driver for the sell-off was the publication of extremely disappointing data from the US labour market.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report showed that the number of non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased by only 114K in July, lower than both the June figure of 179K and the forecast of 176K. Additionally, it was revealed that the unemployment rate has been rising for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 4.3%. These data have raised concerns about a possible recession in the US, triggered a fall in Treasury bond yields, panic on Wall Street, and a sell-off of risky assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
On "Black Monday," 05 August, bitcoin temporarily fell to $48,945, and ethereum to $2,109. The drop was the sharpest since the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022. Long leveraged positions worth almost $1 billion were liquidated. In total, from Sunday evening, the overall market capitalization of the crypto market fell by more than $400 billion.

– At the opening of stock exchanges on Monday, 05 August, MicroStrategy shares, the largest corporate holder of BTC, immediately fell by 22%. (It is worth noting that just last week, MicroStrategy increased its bitcoin reserves to 226,500 BTC, and the company's founder, Michael Saylor, announced that bitcoin quotations would reach $13 million per coin by 2045).
Metaplanet securities, which calls itself the "MicroStrategy of Japan," fell by 18% – from 820 yen to 670 yen. "Black Monday" also affected the crypto exchange Coinbase, whose shares lost 18.5% in value. Public miners' shares also suffered significant losses: the three largest US companies by market capitalization – MARA, CleanSpark, and Riot Platforms – fell by 19.1%, 24.9%, and 16.7%, respectively.

– Disappointing macroeconomic statistics indicate the need for active measures to support US economic growth. According to several analysts, the current situation should push the Federal Reserve to start easing monetary policy and lowering interest rates as early as September. Recent shocks in traditional markets "increase the likelihood that less restrictive monetary policy will come sooner rather than later – which is good for cryptocurrency," claims Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors.

– According to Jan3 CEO and former Blockstream head Samson Mow, evaluating the situation with bitcoin during periods of market financial turmoil is challenging. However, an analyst under the pseudonym Rekt Capital believes that the first cryptocurrency could see a price surge as early as October. He says the forming chart creates a bullish flag, which inspires optimism. "While bitcoin shows the possibility of a downward deviation in the near future, [however] the first cryptocurrency is slowly approaching its historical breakout point 150-160 days after the halving," notes Rekt Capital. He believes that although a price breakout will occur, it is not worth expecting an update to the historical maximum reached in March in the medium term.
The expert also emphasized that the current position in the crypto market suggests that BTC is unlikely to fall to $42,000, as buyers show strong support for the asset.

– Renowned analyst and trader, head of Factor LLC Peter Brandt noted that as a result of the market collapse, the situation has become similar to that recorded in 2016. Eight years ago, bitcoin fell by 27% after the halving that took place in July, and this year the coin's price dropped by 26%.
After hitting a low of $465 in August 2016, the price of bitcoin rose by 144% by early January 2017. Drawing an analogy between trends, Brandt suggests that an upward trend may soon emerge, and the BTC price could update its all-time high (ATH) in eight weeks (i.e., in early October). If this time digital gold appreciates to the same extent as in 2016, its price will be $119,682.
However, ITC Crypto blockchain project founder Benjamin Cowen holds a different view and believes that the bitcoin exchange rate dynamics will reflect the trend seen in 2019 when the coin appreciated in the first half of the year and depreciated in the second. In this case, the downward trend will continue, and BTC will see new lows.

– Analysts at Bernstein believe that bitcoin's reaction as a risky asset to general macroeconomic and political signals is not surprising. "A similar situation was observed earlier during the sudden collapse in March 2020. However, we remain calm," explained Bernstein. The experts noted that the launch of spot BTC-ETFs helped simplify investments in the first cryptocurrency and prevented its price from falling to $45,000. This time, the crypto industry's response to external factors will also be restrained, and the recovery of stock market indices will allow cryptocurrencies to show a slight but noticeable growth.
The company's analysts also warn that the "Trump factor" will influence the first cryptocurrency's price. "As the gap between Trump and Kamala Harris narrows, bitcoin and altcoins have traded weakly. We expect bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets to remain in a narrow range until the US elections, changing in response to catalysts such as presidential debates and the final election result," said Bernstein experts.

– Back in December 2022, the Reserve Bank of India launched a digital version of the rupee (CBDC), stating that transactions in such currency would be more confidential than in fiat. Initially, only Indian banks could conduct transactions with it through their mobile apps. The implementation process of the national CBDC was quite slow, and by the end of June this year, just over 1 million retail transactions had been recorded. This figure was achieved only after local banks began offering customers bonuses for using the virtual rupee and started paying part of employees' salaries in CBDC.
Most likely due to the low popularity of the novelty, the regulator announced in April 2024 that any financial companies with payment services could participate in the project. It was recently revealed that companies such as AmazonPay, GooglePay, and Walmart-backed PhonePe have expressed their desire to join the testing of the electronic rupee. Besides these US payment giants, Indian fintech companies Cred and Mobikwik plan to join the project.

– QCP Group has proposed a rather unexpected version regarding the cause of the crypto market crash. "The drop in cryptocurrency quotations to more than a five-month low was mainly caused by the sale of ethereum by the Jump Trading team," QCP Group believes. According to their information, Jump Trading unlocked 120,000 wETH tokens on Sunday, 04 August. Most of the coins were sold on 05 August, negatively impacting ethereum and other assets' prices. QCP Group suggests that the market maker either needs liquidity urgently on the traditional market or has decided to exit the market entirely due to reasons related to LUNA tokens.
For reference: On 21 June 2024, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) launched an investigation into Jump Trading's activities, as the company acquired LUNA tokens at a price 99.9% below market value, and the subsequent sale of the coins caused a collapse in the asset's quotations. On 24 June, Kanav Kariya, president of Jump Crypto, a subsidiary of Jump Trading, resigned.

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

– Following the stock market crash on "Black Monday," August 5th, the World Gold Council (WGC) decided to examine the behaviour of various asset classes and explain why bitcoin should not be considered "the new gold."
First, the WGC highlighted volatility. For instance, the weekly volatility of physical gold in 2024 was 13.83%, while for bitcoin, it was 53.62%. "Gold and bitcoin are at opposite ends of the volatility spectrum," WGC analysts write, emphasising that gold has always played the role of a safe-haven asset on a global level. As for bitcoin, it is more of an indicator of how widely blockchain technology is used, so its behaviour resembles that of tech company stocks.
As an example, WGC experts suggest considering the correlation with the S&P 500 index in 2022. Based on this, they conclude that the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict "underscored gold's role as a safe-haven asset protecting investors from risks," which differentiates it from the leading cryptocurrency.
Furthermore, the WGC modelled the impact of adding these assets to an investment portfolio in a range of 2.5% to 10%. The Council concluded that gold reduces volatility and improves returns, even when its share in the portfolio is increased. However, the situation with bitcoin is different: the higher its share, the greater the risk of losses.

– According to data from the cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com, the number of cryptocurrency holders grew by 6.4% in the first half of 2024, from 580 million people to the current 617 million. Meanwhile, the number of Ethereum holders increased by 9.7%, from 124 million to 136 million. Among holders of the first cryptocurrency, the growth was 5.9%: 314 million compared to 296 million at the end of December 2023.
According to Crypto.com analysts, the broader adoption of ETH followed the Dencun update in March. The hard fork resulted in some second-layer ETH blockchain protocols reducing transaction fees by 99%.
Key factors for bitcoin included the April halving, the launch of the Runes protocol, and the approval of spot BTC ETFs, which attracted over $14 billion in institutional investment.

– Considering the current consolidation, crypto market participants are focusing on how bitcoin will trade in the short to medium term. Given that the leading cryptocurrency ended July in the red, it cannot be ruled out that August will also close with losses. According to PricePredictions' Artificial Intelligence, on August 31st, the coin will trade at $53,766, and in the last decade of September, it will approach $48,000.

– The analyst known as Crypto Banter disagrees with AI. He pointed out that the Stochastic RSI momentum indicator is entering the investment zone, signalling the possibility of adding BTC to investors' portfolios. Crypto Banter also highlights bitcoin's Fear and Greed Index levels as important indicators for identifying potential market bottoms and profitable entry points. In his observations, current conditions suggest that now is an optimal time to open long positions on BTC, which is fluctuating within key support and resistance levels of $56,000 and $62,000, respectively.

– In China, cryptocurrency trading and mining are banned by law. However, according to the CEO of the analytics platform CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, miners from China account for 54% of global cryptocurrency mining. Additionally, according to a TechFlow survey, for 25% of respondents, crypto trading is the most important source of income and the main occupation in life.
49.14% of Chinese people consider themselves experienced experts in the digital market, while the remaining 50.86% regard themselves as beginners. More than half of the respondents admitted to experiencing a significant level of anxiety when dealing with cryptocurrencies. At least 60% admitted to being superstitious, and 40% reported praying to the "god of prosperity" before engaging in market transactions.
70% of respondents prefer to trade on the cryptocurrency exchanges Binance and OKX. In addition to bitcoin, respondents named Ethereum, Solana, BNB, and the meme coin PEPE as the most profitable assets.

– The personal account of MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor holds bitcoins worth $1 billion. He revealed this figure himself in a recent interview with Bloomberg. However, four years ago, it was known that the businessman owned more than 17,000 coins.
Saylor is known for his commitment to bitcoin. And this is well-founded—over the past four years, MicroStrategy has invested about $8.4 billion in this asset, bringing its reserve to 226,500 coins, which has yielded a profit of more than $5 billion. As a result, the company's shares have risen in value by 995%. During the same period, the leading cryptocurrency has appreciated by approximately 500%.

– The Ripple (XRP) token is displaying a bullish signal, pleasing the bulls of this altcoin. Technical indicators point to an inverted "Head and Shoulders" pattern on the daily chart of the altcoin, with the second shoulder almost ready to form.
Since the court ruling in the case between the SEC (the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) and Ripple, the XRP token has been correlating with major cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Leaning on the $0.55 support, it has been trading in a narrow sideways trend along with the aforementioned assets since the 50% decline that followed the court ruling. As a result, Ripple has recently begun to form the base of the second shoulder in the bullish pattern with a potential risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2.

– The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Treasury-controlled Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) have proposed amendments to the Bank Secrecy Act, equating the "rights and obligations" of the dollar and cryptocurrencies. After revising the definition of "money" in this Act, federal supervisory authorities will be able to impose new reporting requirements on financial institutions to track all domestic and cross-border cryptocurrency transactions. The amendments, if approved by Congress, are scheduled to take effect in September 2025.

– The author of the bestseller "Rich Dad Poor Dad," financier Robert Kiyosaki, believes that people are wrong to turn to the U.S. Federal Reserve for support, as this institution consists of highly educated but poor employees. "The Fed cannot save you," the entrepreneur declares. "It's time to save yourself. Buy more gold, silver, bitcoin, and stop listening to highly educated poor people."
Kiyosaki predicts that in the face of the upcoming market downturn, the prices of precious metals will rise several times over. And bitcoin, in his opinion, may become the most effective protection against "theft of savings by authorities and bankers." Recall that he previously stated that key technical indicators point to a stock market crash, and against this backdrop, the price of "digital gold" could easily reach $10 million per BTC.

– Michael Van De Poppe, CEO of MN Trading, is convinced that bitcoin will reach a new peak this autumn. The main driver for its growth will be institutional investors, who actively bought the coin when its price dropped. The analyst also believes that the recent correction could trigger a strong rally in September or October of this year, as long as bitcoin itself stays above the $57,000 mark.
Approximately the same timeline for the start of the bull rally was predicted by the analyst known as Rekt Capital. He suggested that about 160 days after the halving, bitcoin will enter a parabolic phase. According to his calculations, this should happen at the end of September 2024.

– Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, is also optimistic. He believes that bitcoin will approach its all-time high immediately after the U.S. presidential election: "A typical seasonal pattern is observed where the first cryptocurrency usually struggles between one and three months after the halving," he writes. "Thanks to the influx of liquidity, bitcoin should soon show growth."
The analyst pointed to the weakening of the forced sales factor and predicts that bitcoin will follow gold. According to VanEck's top executive, in 2025, financial markets will be influenced by a monetary policy easing, and because of this, BTC will surpass its all-time high.
According to Matthew Sigel, regardless of who becomes the next U.S. president, the market should be prepared for four years of reckless fiscal policy, and it is during this period that the first cryptocurrency will reach its peak values.
Let us remind you that the digital asset management company VanEck recently released a new forecast for bitcoin. It envisages three possible BTC price levels depending on the development of the market and the adoption of bitcoin as a reserve asset worldwide. According to the base scenario, by 2050, the flagship cryptocurrency could reach $3 million per coin. In the bearish scenario, the minimum BTC price will be $130,314. If the VanEck bullish scenario comes true, in 26 years, 1 bitcoin will be worth $52.4 million.

 

[Stan NordFX]

August 2024 Results: Three NordFX IB Partners Earned Over $77,000 in a Month





The brokerage company NordFX has summarized the trading performance of its clients for August 2024. Additionally, the social trading services, CopyTrading and PAMM, along with the profits earned by the company’s IB partners, were evaluated.



● In August, the top, "golden" spot on the podium was claimed by a client from South Asia, account No. 1782XXX, who earned 142,908 USD from trading gold (XAU/USD).

– The second place was secured by a trader from Western Asia, account No. 1785XXX, who also traded the XAU/USD pair, earning 32,471 USD.

– The TOP-3 is rounded out by a client from East Asia, account No. 1609XXX, with a profit of 24,196 USD. However, unlike the top two leaders, this impressive result was achieved through bitcoin (BTC/USD) trading.

● The situation in NordFX's passive investment services is as follows:

– A month ago, in our CopyTrading review, we mentioned the signal Bro, which, at that time, had increased the initial deposit by a staggering 554% in just 6 days (!). However, we cautioned that such exceptional results could only be achieved through highly aggressive trading, which also meant the risk of losing the entire investment was extremely high. This warning proved to be well-founded, as by 13th August, the deposit losses had reached 100%. Thus, Bro lasted only three weeks before ceasing to exist.

This is precisely why it is essential to consider not only profit but also drawdown. For this reason, we continue to monitor the signals NordFXSrilanka and Quiet_trade_USD. Of course, their profits may not seem as impressive at first glance, but they still far exceed the interest rates on USD bank deposits. Thus, NordFXSrilanka has shown a growth of 48% over 236 days with a maximum drawdown of less than 10%. Quiet_trade_USD has achieved a profit of approximately 15% since the end of February this year, with a moderate drawdown slightly exceeding the same 15%.

– On the PAMM service showcase, a startup Gold24 has already appeared. The name of this account speaks for itself – trading is conducted exclusively on NordFX's popular XAU/USD pair. The number "24" in the name could signify 24-carat purity (pure gold without any alloys), or perhaps it indicates that trading on the pair is conducted 24 hours a day. We consider both possibilities equally likely. Regardless, in just three months of operation, the manager of this account has achieved a profit of 73% with a maximum drawdown of 31%.



● The TOP-3 NordFX IB partners received the following commissions in August:

– The highest commission of 36,691 USD was awarded to a partner from South Asia, account No. 1576XXX.

– The second place goes to another partner from the same region, account No. 1678XXX, who earned 27,244 USD.

– Finally, the TOP-3 is completed by yet another partner from South Asia, whose account No. 1678XXX differs only in the last three digits. His commission amounted to 13,690 USD.



Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews



– The decline in the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies this week is most likely due to investors anticipating the upcoming decision by the US Federal Reserve regarding a rate cut. The announcement will be made following the conclusion of the meeting on 18 September.

However, as some analysts have noted, the timing of the price drop also coincides with reports of another assassination attempt on Donald Trump. It is worth mentioning that this former (and possibly future) US president positions himself as a supporter of cryptocurrencies and has promised to turn the US into the "world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies".



– The stablecoin Tether (USDT) can already be considered one of the key elements of the global financial system. Statistics have shown that in 2023, the volume of transactions and the network’s profitability reached the same levels as Visa. The only difference is that Visa processes transactions through credit cards in traditional currency, while Tether occupies a similar niche in the crypto sphere. Moreover, Tether surpassed BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management company, in profit by $700 million. All of this not only reflects the volume of USDT usage but also the role this stablecoin has come to play in global financial operations.

For reference: According to Token Terminal, over the past two years, USDT's market share has grown by more than 20%. The asset now controls over 75% of the entire stablecoin market. In Q1 2024, Tether earned more than $4.5 billion in profit. In just the last 30 days, Tether made around $400 million.



– According to WeRate co-founder Quinten Francois, current data indicates the imminent start of a bull rally for the leading cryptocurrency. "The average bitcoin cycle begins approximately 170 days after the halving, with the peak forming after 480 days," he writes. Based on this, there is not much time left before the rally starts – according to Francois's calculations, the surge should begin on Tuesday, 8 October.

The analyst believes that it is crucial for the asset to hold its position around the critically important support zone of $59,000. With the US Federal Reserve meeting, the second half of this week will be extremely significant. Francois predicts that there is a possibility BTC could rise above $64,500. If this happens, the coin's price may increase by at least 46% over the course of October-November.



– Michaël van de Poppe, CIO and founder of MN Trading Consultancy, believes that major economies will soon be forced to begin the process of refinancing their debt obligations. As a result, the increase in global liquidity will become a key catalyst for the next bull cycle in the digital market. "Cryptocurrencies and commodities are highly undervalued," van de Poppe writes, "and it is very likely that they will enter a 10-year bull market. I expect significant growth from these two asset classes."

According to the expert, the leading cryptocurrency is already primed for growth after a decline that has lasted more than three months. BTC could rise to $90,000, having tested the key support level of $58,000. Van de Poppe considers the likelihood of the price falling below $55,000 to be almost zero. (It’s worth noting that earlier in September, analysts at the American company ARK Invest identified $52,000 and $46,000 as key support levels for bitcoin).



– According to analyst Vladimir Cohen, liquidity began to exit the altcoin sector in April, which led to a summer marked by fear across this market. However, the trend has now reversed, and reaching a new all-time high in market capitalisation of $1.1 trillion is just a matter of time. A significant influx of liquidity into the sector is expected due to the easing policies of central banks. In Cohen's view, some altcoins will experience growth of thousands of percent, while others will die out completely. He believes that the exit of coins that lack practical value will have a positive impact, making the sector more transparent and liquid.

Cohen also highlighted that the correlation between altcoins and bitcoin has weakened, with altcoins no longer experiencing significant price drops during bitcoin's dumps. This, according to the expert, suggests that investors have shifted into a long-term holding mode and are prepared to weather the dips in asset prices.



– The analyst known as Rekt Capital believes that bitcoin's growing dominance will deal a serious blow to altcoins. On the weekly chart, the market share of the leading cryptocurrency has consolidated above 57.68% for the first time since April 2019. Five years ago, after this threshold was crossed, an upward trend emerged, during which BTC dominance reached 71%, writes Rekt Capital.

This time, bitcoin’s position in the overall cryptocurrency market capitalisation has been strengthening for the past 210 days, despite BTC losing nearly 14% of its value over the past six months. As a result, bitcoin’s share of the total market capitalisation of digital assets has grown at the expense of falling altcoin prices. If this trend continues and BTC dominance rises, the prices of many alternative tokens are likely to drop.

However, the analyst known as Cryptollica has a different view. He believes that bitcoin's dominance will peak at 58% before collapsing to 35% by mid-2025. In this scenario, the market would enter an "altcoin season," characterised by an explosive surge in the prices of these tokens.



– Speaking at the Ethereum Singapore 2024 conference, Vitalik Buterin discussed the risks posed by centralised organisations and highlighted the role of individual network participants. In his view, solo stakers are the primary key to the security of the entire blockchain. Buterin emphasised that although these stakers form a diverse group, which is almost impossible to coordinate, they reduce reliance on centralised entities and add an essential decentralised layer of protection to the Ethereum network.



– MicroStrategy, founded by Michael Saylor, plans to raise an additional $700 million to pay off debts and increase its bitcoin holdings. The funding scheme is not new. MicroStrategy will issue convertible bonds, which will be exchanged for the company's shares in 2028. These securities are likely to be in high demand among investors, as the value of the company’s assets has nearly quadrupled over the past year.

The convertible bonds will be sold exclusively to qualified institutional investors. Of the funds raised, MicroStrategy intends to spend $500 million to repay debt on existing bonds, while the remaining $200 million will be used to increase its BTC holdings. Currently, MicroStrategy leads the ranking of private companies in terms of investments in "digital gold," holding 244,800 coins valued at approximately $14 billion. The average purchase price was $38,781 per 1 BTC.



– In August, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) once again recommended that the government of El Salvador abandon the integration of digital currencies into the country's economy and reconsider its policy towards the flagship cryptocurrency. However, it seems that such pressure has only fuelled El Salvador's leadership's desire for financial independence. Recently, President Nayib Bukele announced that the government plans to combat the budget deficit and its reliance on IMF loans by developing the crypto sector. To create a favourable investment climate, work is already underway to establish a network of private crypto banks, which will provide investors, including international ones, access to bitcoin transactions with fewer restrictions compared to traditional banks.

It is worth recalling that El Salvador became the first country in the world to make bitcoin legal tender on 7 September 2021. As of the end of August, the country’s crypto reserves amounted to 5,870 BTC. Additionally, 474 coins have been mined using geothermal energy.



– Unlike El Salvador, the Central Bank of Russia views cryptocurrencies and stablecoins as one of the main risk factors for the economy. In its financial market development project, the Russian Central Bank states that, due to the lack of global regulation, the use of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins in trade settlements could increase sharply. While some countries are taking steps to reduce the "destabilising role of cryptocurrencies," these efforts are insufficient, given the cross-border nature of digital coins. National economies must take measures to mitigate the risks posed by modern digital monetary substitutes and prevent them from gaining a dominant position over national currencies, according to the Russian Central Bank.



– The Madras High Court in India has prohibited the freezing of bank accounts belonging to crypto investors. The court emphasised that investigative authorities are required to notify account holders and the courts of such actions, though these requirements are often not followed. The Madras Court has been receiving numerous petitions to unfreeze the bank accounts of cryptocurrency owners, indicating law enforcement's inability to adequately explain the reasons for such blockages to account holders.

Earlier, Australian Senator Andrew Bragg described the freezing of bank accounts of companies and individuals using cryptocurrencies as a violation of antitrust laws. According to the senator, this does not resemble an effective approach to combating money laundering and the financing of terrorism through cryptocurrencies.

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

– According to Bloomberg, the correlation between the cryptocurrency market and the US stock market has reached near-record levels. This occurred following the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower the key interest rate at its meeting on 17-18 September. The 40-day correlation coefficient between the 100 largest cryptocurrencies and the S&P 500 index stands at approximately 0.67. A higher value (0.72) was reached only once, during Q2 2022.

Following the start of the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing, US stock indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq) hit new highs, and on 23 September, bitcoin reached $64,765. Such a high direct correlation indicates that cryptocurrency prices are heavily dependent on macroeconomic indicators and the actions of the Federal Reserve.

Political factors also undoubtedly influence the cryptocurrency market. For instance, the positive trend in bitcoin and leading altcoins in recent days was supported by a statement from Vice President Kamala Harris, who said that, if elected President of the United States, she would promote increased investment in AI technologies and the cryptocurrency sector. Some experts have called Harris’s statement “encouraging” and “an important event for crypto and blockchain technologies.” However, others, such as venture capitalist Nic Carter, expressed the opposite view, claiming that Harris’s words are politically motivated and “mean nothing.”



– Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano and co-founder of Ethereum, believes that none of the US presidential candidates has a sufficient understanding of cryptocurrencies. For this reason, in Hoskinson's view, they will be unable to create favourable conditions for industry companies in the US. Donald Trump’s record-high staff turnover will prevent him from bringing the right people into government to foster the development of digital assets. Meanwhile, if Kamala Harris wins, she will continue Joe Biden’s anti-cryptocurrency policies. Hoskinson believes that local elections are far more important, as crypto companies can work more closely and effectively with senators.



– The Chinese government imposed a total ban on cryptocurrencies back in 2021. Beijing strictly limited the use of digital assets, prohibiting offshore exchanges from offering their services in the country. Authorities also banned all forms of cryptocurrency mining. Despite this, bitcoin miners from China still control a significant share of the global market. According to Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, over 55% of bitcoin’s hashrate is under the control of Chinese mining pools.

“Chinese mining pools manage 55% of the network, while American pools account for around 40%. US pools mainly serve institutional miners, whereas Chinese pools cater to smaller miners from Asia,” stated Ki Young Ju. Given this situation, the Chinese authorities’ stance on cryptocurrency could become even stricter. In 2025, the government plans to introduce amendments to its anti-money laundering (AML) regulations, extending them to cryptocurrency transactions.



– Analysts at 10x Research have identified two catalysts for a sharp rise in bitcoin. In their view, the trigger for a bull rally will be the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and the upcoming payments to creditors of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX. "The expected inflow of $5-8 billion will encourage investors," the experts believe.

Moreover, they suggest that "there is a chance of a sharp, ‘juicy’ rise in cryptocurrency, as the Federal Reserve appears to have raised the S&P 500 level at which it will intervene to protect investors, signalling the potential for further rate cuts. As a result, many investors are likely to reposition their portfolios into riskier assets by 2025," states the 10x Research report.

The analysts also point out that, historically, bitcoin has shown significant growth from October to March, and a similar trend could repeat, considering the previous market cycles of 2021 and 2017.



– According to Bernstein, there are as many as five reasons behind bitcoin's growth. 1. Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation hedging. Analysts note that, like gold, bitcoin becomes more attractive during times of fiscal excess, especially when US debt reaches $35 trillion. Since the beginning of the year, bitcoin has risen by 45%, compared to gold's 27% increase. 2. Growing bipartisan support for cryptocurrencies, accompanied by statements from Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. 3. The popularity of exchange-traded bitcoin ETFs. “Over the past 10 days, inflows into bitcoin ETFs have reached $800 million, despite volatile price movements,” Bernstein notes. The company expects that more banks, like Morgan Stanley, will also launch bitcoin ETFs, leading to further capital inflows. 4. Stability among miners after the April halving. According to Bernstein, network hashrate has recovered, indicating miner resilience, which further strengthens bitcoin's foundation. 5. Decreased selling pressure. Large sales of bitcoin by the US and German governments, as well as payments to Mt. Gox clients, have been absorbed by the market. Additionally, MicroStrategy has managed to raise $2.1 billion to purchase the leading cryptocurrency, bringing its holdings to 252,220 BTC, or 1.3% of the total supply.



– Legendary trader, analyst, and head of Factor LLC, Peter Brandt, believes that in 2025, the bitcoin-to-gold ratio could rise by more than 400%. To justify his highly optimistic forecast, Brandt refers to a classic technical model – the "inverse head and shoulders." The pattern forms below resistance, known as the neckline. In theory, when resistance is broken, accompanied by rising trading volumes, the price increases by the maximum distance between the neckline and the deepest point of the head.

Applied to the BTC/GLD chart, the price of 1 bitcoin could reach the price of 123 ounces of gold as early as 2025, which is a 400% increase compared to 24 ounces as of 22 September 2024. This means that if physical gold remains at its current level of $2,630, the price of digital gold, according to Brandt’s theory, could soar to over $323,000. Supporting the idea that bitcoin could outperform the precious metal is its rapid adoption by institutional investors, as well as the launch of exchange-traded BTC ETFs, which have strengthened the asset's presence in their portfolios.



– One of the early bitcoin developers, Jeff Garzik, has created the Hemi Network protocol to connect the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains through tunnels. Cross-chain protocols (bridges) already exist and also serve to transfer assets between incompatible networks. However, the Hemi team claims that tunnels create a unique environment, allowing Bitcoin and Ethereum to "coexist" while avoiding the vulnerabilities inherent to bridges. Currently, the Hemi Network test is live, with the mainnet launch scheduled for Q4 of this year.



– Speaking at the TOKEN-2049 conference in Singapore, Jess Houlgrave, CEO of fintech company Reown (formerly WalletConnect), stated that in six years, cryptocurrency wallets will completely disappear and transform into "life centres." According to her, these will become universal digital archives where users can store not only digital assets but also a wide range of documents, from medical records to educational diplomas. The company’s head noted that the security of such archives will become much more reliable in a few years, allowing users to use them without fear of hacking.



– A few days ago, UFC fighter Renato Moicano called on the public to pay more attention to the first cryptocurrency. The Brazilian has repeatedly stated that bitcoin has long-term potential, serves as an alternative to traditional money, and can protect citizens from rising inflation. Given the economic uncertainty, including concerns around the US dollar, digital gold is becoming the best option for preserving savings. "Bitcoin is not just an investment," Renato Moicano said. "It's a way of life." (It’s worth noting that after his victory at UFC 300, the fighter publicly demanded that his reward be paid in BTC.)



– Macroeconomist Raoul Pal believes that everything is aligned for bitcoin's price to soar to $200,000 or more by the beginning of next year. In a video posted on his Real Vision channel, the former Goldman Sachs executive explained that the leading cryptocurrency tends to rise and fall in tandem with global liquidity cycles. He presented a chart of the GMI (Global Macro Investor) index, which shows an increase in global liquidity over the next three months, and analysed how this will impact BTC's price.

Pal also shared another chart showing that BTC is precisely repeating its price movement from January 2023 to March 2024, when the price surged by approximately 350% from $16,500 to $74,000. According to the economist, "Bitcoin is repeating what it did last year, almost exactly. So, we have the macro overlay, the Fed will continue [easing], other central banks will get involved as well. We have seasonality and the global liquidity cycle..." "This has to happen now," Raoul Pal concludes.

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 04 – 08, 2024

In October 2024, the U.S. labor market saw limited movement, with total nonfarm payroll employment rising by only 12,000 jobs, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Health care and government sectors saw continued job growth, while temporary help services and manufacturing experienced declines, the latter impacted by strike activity. Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which caused significant damage and evacuations in the southeastern U.S., may have influenced employment figures and data collection, potentially skewing labor data.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics noted, however, that it cannot quantify the hurricanes' impact on employment shifts. Moreover, the storms did not visibly affect the unemployment rate. After the data release, the dollar fell sharply by 0.35%, while stock indices and cryptocurrencies saw a recovery. Markets are now anticipating rate cuts in 2025, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction at the November and December Federal Reserve meetings.
The U.S. presidential election on November 5th will be a major focal point for the markets next week, likely driving significant volatility around that date.

EUR/USD

The Euro saw a slight increase over the week, though it appears to be struggling to hold onto those gains. Currently, the market seems likely to remain volatile and move sideways, with prices hovering around the 50-Week EMA.
If the price breaks above the top of previous week’s candlestick, it could face resistance at the 1.10 level. Conversely, the 1.0750 level offers strong support and is worth monitoring closely. Should the price fall below this point, it may target the 1.05 level, which has consistently served as a major support zone over the past few years. Overall, the market appears to lack clear direction at this stage.

XAU/USD

Escalating geopolitical tensions have led investors to turn to safe-haven assets like gold, fueled by heightened risk aversion and worries about global market stability. Gold has repeatedly set new records this year, climbing over 30% amid expectations of further central bank rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. According to LSEG data, this marks its strongest annual growth since 1979.
Gold had a bullish run past week, but momentum appears to be slowing. The weekly candlestick reflects some hesitation, indicating that a phase of profit-taking might be near. The $2800 mark, a significant psychological level, has drawn substantial market interest. Traders should monitor any pullbacks closely, as these may present buying opportunities, particularly around the $2600 level.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a gain of over 2% this week until Friday, with a strong start bringing it close to a new all-time high, followed by a notable decline as signs of profit-taking emerged.
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin might experience a pullback in the coming days ahead of the U.S. presidential election, a critical event that could shape the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies. The continuation of Bitcoin’s recent rally in the short term is closely tied to the election results, with many traders believing that a victory for former President Donald Trump could result in more favorable regulatory conditions for the crypto market.
If BTC continues its decline and closes below the $69,500 mark, it could potentially fall over 5% to test the next key support at $66,000, aligning closely with the breakout point of the downward-sloping parallel channel pattern near $65,800 on the weekly chart. However, if Bitcoin stays above $69,500, it may attempt to retest and possibly break through its all-time high of $73,777.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 18 – 22, 2024

The financial markets enter the week of November 18–22, 2024, amid significant economic and political developments shaping currency, commodity, and cryptocurrency movements. The recent re-election of Donald Trump has boosted market confidence in a pro-business and deregulation-focused administration, strengthening the US dollar. This has been further supported by robust US economic data, including low unemployment and resilient consumer spending, which reinforce expectations of continued monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.
Globally, the eurozone remains under pressure due to sluggish growth and political uncertainties, which weigh on the euro. Gold prices are responding to the dollar’s strength, as investors weigh the prospects of higher interest rates against the metal's role as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, bitcoin is seeing record highs, driven by optimism about regulatory clarity and increased institutional adoption. These factors will be key drivers of market dynamics for EUR/USD, XAU/USD, and BTC/USD in the upcoming week.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is expected to test the support area near 1.0450, with a potential rebound signalling further growth towards the target level of 1.0875. An additional signal supporting this bullish scenario is a test of the support line on the RSI indicator.
The key level to watch for invalidating this growth outlook is 1.0365. A breakout below this level would indicate further bearish momentum, with the pair likely continuing to decline towards the target of 0.9945. Conversely, confirmation of sustained growth would require a breakout above the 1.0665 level, signalling a breach of the descending channel and opening the path for further upward movement.
This outlook considers the interplay of technical signals and critical support and resistance levels, which traders should monitor closely in the coming week.

XAU/USD

Gold ended the week near 2568, with XAU/USD moving within a bullish channel. Moving averages suggest a bullish trend, with prices testing key signal lines, indicating buyer pressure and potential growth. A decline towards the 2455 support level is expected, followed by a rebound targeting 2675.
A rebound from the RSI support line and the lower border of the bullish channel supports the growth scenario. However, a breakout below 2385 would invalidate this outlook, signalling a decline towards 2315. Confirmation of continued growth would require a breakout above 2625, indicating further bullish momentum.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closed the week at 89,337, moving within a bullish channel that suggests a continued upward trend. The moving averages and recent upward breakout through signal lines support this bullish momentum. However, a short-term correction towards the 76,505 support level is possible, from which a rebound could lead to further gains, targeting levels above 112,605.
Key signals for the week include a bounce from the bullish channel’s lower boundary and the RSI support line. A drop below 73,605 would invalidate the bullish outlook, potentially leading to a decline towards 65,605. Conversely, a breakout above 99,905 would confirm further upward movement in line with the channel’s width.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 25 – 29, 2024

As we step into the last week of November, global financial markets are grappling with a mix of challenges and opportunities. Geopolitical developments, including the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are intensifying risk aversion among investors, driving demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar. At the same time, market participants are closely watching the U.S. Federal Reserve, where speculation about a potential rate cut is gaining traction due to softening inflation and mixed economic data. In Europe, the ECB's cautious approach and persistent economic sluggishness are keeping the euro under pressure, while cryptocurrencies continue to attract attention amid growing institutional interest, even as regulatory uncertainties persist.
Against this backdrop, major trading instruments like EUR/USD, XAU/USD, and BTC/USD are exhibiting distinctive trends. The interplay of macroeconomic forces and technical patterns in these instruments suggests both opportunities and risks for traders in the week ahead. Below is a detailed analysis of their forecasted movements.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair is trading around 1.0400, navigating a broader sideways channel that has dominated its trend in recent months. Despite the current bearish momentum, the pair remains in a state of consolidation, with significant resistance at 1.0685 and support at 1.0345. Moving averages reinforce the bearish sentiment, showing downward pressure as prices have broken below key signal lines. However, a potential rebound from the 1.0345 level could serve as a catalyst for recovery, targeting the upper boundary of the range near 1.0685.
This week's forecast suggests a retest of the 1.0345 support zone, where a rebound is likely. A breakout above 1.0535 would confirm bullish momentum and signal a move towards 1.0685. Conversely, a sustained break below 1.0045 could invalidate this recovery scenario and pave the way for a deeper decline towards 0.9865. Technical indicators, including the relative strength index (RSI), provide additional signals, with a rebound from oversold levels potentially supporting the upside case.

XAU/USD

Gold prices remain robust, currently trading near $2,700 per ounce, underpinned by heightened geopolitical tensions and speculation about a softer U.S. monetary policy. The precious metal has been moving within a strong bullish channel, with prices breaking above the area between key signal lines on moving averages, signalling robust demand. While the long-term trend points to continued upward movement, a short-term corrective pullback toward the $2,485 support level may occur before another leg higher.
The forecast for the week suggests that gold will test $2,485, followed by a rebound targeting $3,125. The RSI indicator and the bullish channel's lower boundary are expected to act as key support zones. However, a break below $2,435 would invalidate the bullish scenario, indicating a shift in momentum and opening the door for further declines to $2,345. A confirmed breakout above $2,755 would reinforce bullish sentiment and signal a resumption of the upward trend.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues its impressive rally, closing last week near $98,790 and maintaining its trajectory within a well-defined ascending channel. The cryptocurrency is benefiting from increased demand as a hedge against inflation and fiat currency instability. Moving averages indicate a sustained bullish trend, though short-term corrections are likely as the asset consolidates its recent gains.
This week, a pullback toward $91,305 is expected, followed by a potential bounce targeting $116,505. A breakout above the resistance level of $102,505 would confirm the bullish continuation, while a drop below $80,505 would invalidate this outlook and signal a deeper correction towards $72,605. Technical indicators, such as RSI, show potential support for an upward rebound, but traders should remain vigilant for sudden shifts, which are typical in the cryptocurrency market.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 02 – 06, 2024

As November draws to a close and December begins, financial markets remain dynamic, shaped by a mix of geopolitical events, monetary policy updates, and investor sentiment shifts. The Eurozone faces persistent economic challenges, weighing on the euro, while gold continues to shine as a safe haven amidst global uncertainty. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market, led by bitcoin, is riding a wave of optimism as regulatory developments and institutional interest bolster its upward momentum.
Here’s a detailed analysis of the key instruments,EUR/USD, BTC/USD, and XAU/USD,as we head into the first trading week of December 2024.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair concluded the previous week at 1.0544, remaining within a long-term descending channel. Indicators, including moving averages, confirm a prevailing bearish trend as prices recently broke below key signal levels. However, the potential for a rebound remains.
Early in the week, the pair is expected to test the support level around 1.0345. If this level holds, the pair may see a recovery, with a potential rise toward the resistance area above 1.0735. Such movement could gain support from technical signals, including a test of the RSI support line or a bounce from the channel's lower boundary. On the downside, a decisive break below the 1.0125 level would invalidate the recovery scenario, opening the door for further declines toward 0.9825.

XAU/USD

Gold closed the week at $2,658, continuing its upward movement within an ascending channel. Indicators such as moving averages confirm the strength of the bullish trend, with prices breaching key resistance levels. Despite the positive outlook, a short-term decline may emerge before further growth.
The price is likely to test the $2,525 support level at the beginning of the week. If this level holds, gold could rebound and climb towards $3,005. Signals from the RSI and a bounce from the ascending channel's lower boundary would further support this movement. Conversely, a drop below $2,445 would undermine the bullish scenario, potentially driving prices toward $2,375.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin ended last week at $97,047, maintaining its upward trajectory within a bullish channel. The cryptocurrency's performance remains underpinned by moving averages and a breakout above key signal areas. While the broader trend is bullish, a short-term correction may precede further gains.
A pullback to the support area near $90,405 could occur early in the week. Following this, bitcoin is expected to resume its ascent, targeting levels above $120,505. Indicators such as a rebound from the bullish channel's lower boundary and RSI trendline support could validate this growth. However, a fall below the $80,505 level would signal a breakdown in the bullish structure and suggest a decline toward $72,665.

The first week of December is set to be a pivotal period for the markets. While EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure, there are opportunities for rebounds if support levels hold. Bitcoin's bullish trend appears intact, though traders should anticipate and prepare for short-term corrections. Gold, as a safe-haven asset, shows strong potential for growth, provided its critical support areas remain unbroken. In light of these dynamics, traders should carefully monitor the markets and adapt their strategies accordingly.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 09 – 13, 2024

The past week exhibited varying trends across major markets. The euro managed to hold its ground against the dollar, albeit within a persistent long-term descending channel. Gold and bitcoin extended their upward momentum, supported by strong technical indicators. Looking ahead, the EUR/USD pair appears poised to test critical support and resistance levels, gold may encounter a temporary correction before resuming its upward trajectory, and bitcoin shows signs of strength within its established bullish channel. Below is a detailed forecast for the week ahead.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed the previous week near 1.0551, reflecting moderate growth while remaining within its long-term descending channel. Although moving averages point to a bearish trend, a potential reversal could emerge from the "Head and Shoulders" pattern taking shape. The pair shows signs of downward pressure from buyers, with prices previously breaking through signal lines. A short-term correction to the 1.0505 support level is expected, followed by a rebound that could push the pair toward the 1.0925 mark. Supporting this view is a test of the RSI's support line, alongside a rebound from the "Neck" line of the reversal model. However, a breakout below 1.0245 would negate the bullish scenario, signalling a continuation of the decline, potentially targeting the 0.9805 level. On the other hand, sustained movement above 1.0695 would confirm further growth, indicating a breakout of the descending channel's upper boundary.

XAU/USD

Gold ended last week near the 2637 level, continuing its progress within a bullish channel. Prices show strength, having breached resistance levels under the influence of buyers. However, the short term may bring a decline toward the 2545 support zone, where a rebound is anticipated. Such a move would pave the way for gold to target the 2965 level in the coming sessions. A supportive signal for further growth is a rebound from the RSI trend line and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Should prices break below the 2435 mark, the bullish outlook would be invalidated, opening the door for further declines to 2365. Conversely, a breakout above 2745 would confirm continued bullish momentum for the metal.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin closed the previous week at 99,301, maintaining its trajectory within a well-defined bullish channel. The asset remains under strong buyer pressure, reflected in its upward movement above key resistance areas. A short-term correction is anticipated, with the price likely to test the 92,505 support level. From there, a rebound could push bitcoin toward a new high at 123,605. Additional bullish confirmation comes from rebounds off the RSI support line and the lower boundary of the bullish channel. A breakdown below 80,505, however, would invalidate this outlook, potentially leading to a deeper decline toward 72,005. On the flip side, a breakout above 106,025 would affirm the bullish case, further strengthening the asset's growth prospects.

The week of December 9–13, 2024, is set to be pivotal for forex and cryptocurrency markets. The EUR/USD pair will likely fluctuate between correction and growth, while gold and bitcoin, despite possible near-term corrections, remain in bullish formations. Traders should monitor critical levels closely to navigate potential opportunities and risks effectively.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.