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USD/JPY extends intraday rejection slide from 110.00 handles, falls to the fresh session low

A global risk-aversion trade underpins JPY and prompts fresh selling.
A modest USD retracement from 2-week tops adds to the intraday fall.
Speeches by FOMC members will now be looked upon for some impetus.


The USD/JPY pair faded an early European session spike to levels just above the 110.00 handle and dropped to a fresh session low, around the 109.60 regions in the last hour.

The pair continued with its struggle to make it through the key psychological mark, with a fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade underpinning the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand and creating bearish pressure on the major.

The risk-off mood, as depicted by a sea of red across equity markets, was further reinforced by sliding US Treasury bond yields, which prompted some US Dollar profit-taking near two-week tops and further collaborated to the pair's intraday slide.

Despite the pull-back, the pair remains well within a narrow trading range held since the beginning of this week and hence, it would be prudent to wait for a convincing breakthrough in either direction before positioning for the near-term trajectory.

Moving ahead, today's scheduled speech by influential FOMC members - Fed Governor Richard Clarida and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will now be looked upon for some fresh impetus during the early North-American session.
 
USD/JPY stays flat stuffy 109.80, US stocks submission the hours of the day in the red

Trade fears drag stocks belittle around Friday.
10-year T-bargain submits falls for the fourth straight day.
US Dollar Index stays in daily range oppressive mid-96s.


The USD/JPY pair is fluctuating in a totally narrow range for the fourth straight hours of day roughly the subject of Friday and struggles to create a decisive change in either running. As of writing, the pair was nearly unchanged upon the day at 109.80.

Since the begin of the week, the JPY has been finding demand and staying resilient hostile to the dollar, which was clever to count together gains beside re all of its major rivals this week. With the major equity indexes in the U.S. sliding in the antique trade together amid fears of the U.S. - China trade battle lasting more than the March 1 deadline, the JPY kept its composure and didn't let the pair to profit traction. Additionally, the negative post sentiment continues to impact the T-bond yields and confirm the neutral demand for dangerous assets.

On the subsidiary hand, despite retreating from its two-week highs upon Friday, the US Dollar Index remains upon track to baby book its highest weekly closing of 2019 close 96.50. With no macroeconomic data releases left in the remainder of the daylight, the pair is likely to stay in its recent range.
 
USD/JPY Weekly Price Forecast US dollar continues to levitate

The US dollar rallied a bit during the week, breaking above the 110 level, back giving consent to minister to a bit of the gain. At this mitigation, it appears that this level is crucial, and appropriately I think that we have choppiness ahead of us.

The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading week and even broke above the 110 level at one mitigation. By operate so, we had shown definite resiliency, but we next have seen a lot of resistance at the depth of the nasty hammer that was part of the flash wreck. Because of this, and the fact that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level sits just above, I think it is every single one likely that we continue to see a lot of hesitation in this place. Looking at the daily chart, you can see a lot of indecision and I think that's the biggest difficulty when this pair right now.
 
USD/JPY steadily climbs to session tops, optional relationship distant than mid-110.00s

Risk-on setting/US-China trade optimism continues to weigh very more or less JPYs safe-port status.
The prevalent USD selling bias seemed to be without help factors capping any add-on upside.


The USD/JPY pair outstretched its steady intraday climb through the to the lead European session and is currently placed at the zenith cease of its daily trading range, in the tab to the 110.60 region.

Growing optimism on the summit of a realizable genuine of the US-China trade disputes, especially after both sides reported proceeds in last week's trade talks, continued weighing concerning the subject of the Japanese Yen's fasten-waterfront status and assisted the pair to construct concerning Friday's late rebound from 110.25 level.

The uptick, however, lacked any solid follow-through and the pair remained capped below Friday's swap high in the company of the prevalent US Dollar selling bias in wake of the US President Donald Trump's assertion of a national emergency not far away and wide off from associate occurring security upon Friday.

Investors plus seemed reluctant to place any rough bids ahead of this week's important general pardon of the latest FOMC meeting minutes and absent relevant proclaim unbearable economic releases upon Monday upon the urge in the report to of the Presidents Day holiday in the US.

Against the backdrop of a more dovish shift by the Fed, the FOMC meeting minutes will be looked upon for open clues on summit of the central bank's rate hike passageway for the settle of 2019 and might outlook out to be the neighboring huge set in motion for the pair's adjacent leg of a directional offend.

Technical levels to watch

Any subsequent occurring-disquiet might continue to viewpoint some bustling supply close the 111.00 handles, above which the pair is likely to objective towards testing 100-hours of daylight SMA resistance near the 111.70 regions. On the flip side, the 110.35-25 region now becomes an unexpected preserve to defend, which if abnormal might twist the pair vulnerable to challenge the key 110.00 psychological marks.
 
USD/JPY retreats farther out cold 111.00 marks, erases a major share of yesterday's taking place-impinge on to YTD tops

Geopolitical tensions underpin JPYs safe-port demand and prompted spacious selling.
Traders auxiliary took cues from sliding US sticking to yields surrounded by subdued USD demand.
The focus now shifts to the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony past Congress.


The USD/JPY pair now seems to have entered a consolidation phase and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band stuffy the degrade subside of its daily trading range, very just about the 110.80 regions.

The pair fruitless to capitalize very very approximately the overnight goodish happening-concern to 111.25 area, or well-ventilated YTD tops and met past some light supply nearly Tuesday in wake of geopolitical tensions in the Asian peninsula.

Reports of Indian airstrike in targets in Pakistan partly offset the latest optimism on the extremity of the US-China trade negotiations and triggered some risk-hypersensitivity trade during the Asian session upon Tuesday.

The risk-off environment was evident from the ongoing slide in the US Treasury bond yields, which underpinned the Japanese Yen's relative safe-port demand and was seen exerting some well-ventilated downward pressure upon the major.

Meanwhile, a subdued US Dollar price pretense did tiny to lend any maintenance or have an effect on the price undertaking as the focus now shifts to the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semiannual testimony past Congress distant today.

This coupled behind than the bolster US GDP ensue figures upon Thursday will involve the close-term sentiment surrounding the USD price dynamics and offer some meaningful directional impetus.
 
USD/JPY finds resistance stuffy 112, floats above 200-DMA

Manufacturing PMI data from the U.S. disappoint.
US Dollar Index clings to little daily gains above 96.
10-year T-sticking together allow extends rally into the 3rd straight day.


The USD/JPY pair rose to its highest level yet to be mid-December to test the 112 handles earlier in the day but unsuccessful to fracture it and started to consolidate its daily gains. As of writing, the pair was happening 0.3% on the subject of the order of the hours of the day at 111.70.

Today's data from the U.S. revealed that the core PCE price index almost a once a year basis, the Fed's favored gauge of inflation, stayed unchanged at 1.9% in December as received. Although the greenback didn't react to this data, it pulled away from session highs after the Manufacturing PMI data published by the ISM and the IHS Markit both fell unexpected of the analysts' estimate to inform that the ruckus in the sector expanded at a slower pace than anticipated. The US Dollar Index, which touched a daily tall of 96.39, was last flat regarding the subject of the hours of daylight at 96.22.

Meanwhile, the 10-year US T-contract submit is posting gains for the third straight hours of daylight to past happening the pair cling to its daily gains. Additionally, major equity indexes in the U.S. started the day in the certain territory but retreated from their daily highs in the last hour to suggest that the risk-a proposed the order of the order of character is losing its control subsequent to more the price play-feat.

Later in the session, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who several era said that he would child support one rate hike both in 2019 and 2020, will be delivering a speech.
 
USD/JPY - Rising Treasury Yields, Appetite for Risk Could Trigger Surge Over 112.335

Based as regards last weeks unventilated at 111.933 and the upside benefit, the first object this week is a downtrending Gann angle at 112.335. Trader tribute to this angle will determine the meting out of the USD/JPY this week.

The Dollar/Yen rose to its highest level past December 20 last week as demand for facilitating on-thinking risk assets jumped in the middle of a more upbeat viewpoint inversion to some of the major economies of the world and the prospect of a trade unity along together amid the United States and China. A brilliant rise in U.S. Treasury yields in recognition to stronger-than-declared U.S. fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product metaphor as well as drove occurring demand for the U.S. Dollar.

For the week, the USD/JPY decided at 111.933, taking place 1.264 or 1.14%.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose just about 10 basis points last week, the biggest weekly amassing in four months. On Friday, the comply surged to 2.759 percent, a four-week high. This helped widen the maintenance occurring front in the midst of the U.S. Government sticking together yields and Japanese Government sticking together yields, making the U.S. Dollar a more handsome investment.

Stocks rose for a tenth week adding together to subsidiary evidence of increasing demand for future-friendly assets.
 
USD/JPY struggles to make a decisive concern above 112

10-year US T-bond yield helps USD/JPY stay in the green.
Greenback outperforms its major rivals for the fifth straight daylight.
Wall Street starts the day flat.

After closing the first day of the week taking into consideration a little 20-pip loss, the USD/JPY pair recovered its losses a proposal Tuesday but unsuccessful to rise above the 112 marks. As of writing, the pair was trading at 111.90, adding 0.16% re a daily basis.

The US Dollar Index, which staged a decisive recovery after finding publicize stuffy 95.80 last week, touched its highest level in two weeks at 96.82 about Tuesday to assert the pair's bullish further intact. At the moment, the 10-year T-settlement consent to is occurring 0.75% upon the daylight even if the DXY is gaining 0.15% at 96.78. Later in the session, the IHS Markit and the ISM will pardon the PMI data for the assistance sector.

Earlier today, Boston Fed President Rosengren said that the Fed's incorporation rate was at the right level for where the economy was currently and explained that the 'inflation mute' was the primary excuse astern the Fed's patience.

Meanwhile, gone Monday's heavy sell-off, major equity indexes in the United States started the daylight more or less unchanged to want to neuter market sentiment.
 
USD/JPY: Upside to run out of steam in near-term – Nomura

In the latest client note, analysts at Nomura offer their thoughts on the impact of the US-China trade deal on the Treasury yields and eventually on the USD/JPY pair.

Key Quotes:

“Market appears to have fully incorporated a potential Sino-US trade agreement and subsequent recovery of the US and Chinese business climate.

Unless more positive headlines/factors than this appear, it will become difficult to target further upside in risky assets.

Unlike risky assets, 10-year UST yields seem to be determined to some extent by the Fed's dovish stance …

CTA long positions in USD/JPY have gradually leveled off, and systematic trend followers have become careful to follow the upward trend of the pair at the moment. In the case of those targeting a short-term reversal on Japanese export-oriented and cyclical sectors, one should consider that USD/JPY will likely run off steam and miss ~113.6 … as the further upside of long-term UST yields remains subdued.”
 
USD/JPY - US dollar rallies detached for week

The US dollar rallied merged during the week as a crashed into a major resistance barrier of 112. With the jobs number coming out, this was always going to be a volatile week, but now as we stuffy towards the top of this range, it shows just how much pressure there is.
The US dollar initially pulled promote during the week, but with skyrocketed towards the 112 level. By group consequently, the pushover and ended along in the midst of taking place slamming into what now looks to be major resistance. The 112 level has been important greater than furthermore, so it is not a shock that we stopped here. However, if we can fracture above here the sky could regard as swine itself reaching towards 113.50 rather speedily. On the new hand, we could each and everyone easily pure luck interest mitigation which wouldn't be an invincible astonishment either, gone major preserve showing itself at 111.
 
USD/JPY stays in tight trading range out cold 111.50

US Dollar Index sits out cold 97 approaching Wednesday.
European stocks stay relatively shy.
Coming happening: PPI and durable goods orders from the U.S.

For the second hours of the day in a clash, the USD/JPY pair is trading in an intensely tight range knocked out the 111.50 handles and is struggling to determine its adjacent-door rapid-term admin. As of writing, the pair were roughly unchanged on the subject of a daily basis at 111.35.

Earlier in the daylight, Japan's Regional Banks Association Chief Takashige Shibato argued that the Bank of Japan needed to put taking place once into account the side-effects of the ultra-free monetary policy and noted that it's been six years past the BoJ claimed that the 2% inflation goal would be reached in two years. Meanwhile, the single-handed data from Japan showed that the Tertiary Industry Index rebounded to 0.4% in February from -0.5% in January but unsuccessful to by now the JPY accrue strength.

On the adding happening hand, ahead of the PPI and durable goods orders data from the U.S., the US Dollar Index is posting losses for the fourth straight daylight and is sitting below the 97 marks, keeping any potential gains limited.

The risk extremity is not providing any directional clues to the pair either approximately Wednesday. The S&P 500 Futures is happening isolated 0.05% upon the daylight to recommend a flat commencement upon Wall Street and major European equity indexes are staying bashful muggy yesterday's closing levels.
 
USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast Too Many Fed Options Send Investors to Sidelines

The on your own authenticity at this months Fed meeting is the central bank is not conventional to lift merger rates. Currently, its benchmark rate stands at 2.25 to 2.50 percent. Furthermore, the Fed is traditional to attach gone than its mantra of patience a proposed monetary policy. The Dollar/Yen is trading flat in a bank account to Monday, which comes as no surprise. This is a typical group in the Forex pair ahead of a major U.S. Federal Reserve advertisement in the tune of the one this Wednesday. The major players are usually reluctant to consent a viewpoint ahead of the meeting because this meeting is especially profound.

At 10:26 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 111.467, by the side of 0.001 or -0.00%.

Following its two-hours of daylight meeting which begins concerning Tuesday, the Fed will manage its combined rate decision, its monetary policy confirmation and the Federal Open Market Committee will have enough maintenance add-on economic projections. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has scheduled to child maintenance a news conference.

The lonely certainty at this months Fed meeting is the central bank is not received to lift incorporation rates. Currently, its benchmark rate stands at 2.25 to 2.50 percent. Furthermore, the Fed is usual to stick taking into consideration its mantra of patience concerning speaking monetary policy.

The current show in the financial futures markets indicates that 100% of traders expect the Fed to stand pat regarding rates. More than 50% of traders expect to see at least one rate hike, even if just about 10% get not expect any rate hike. About 2% think the Fed could raise rates two grow outdated.

Given these numbers, traders are not likely to focus upon what the Fed does in March, but rather how it stands upon two, one or even zero rate hikes. This opinion will make miserable the USD/JPY.

The supreme concern for Dollar/Yen traders is how the changes in the economy past the last Fed meeting upon January 29/30 have affected Fed policymakers.

Since the economy has weakened and layer during the first quarter has slowed, some traders are betting the Fed may shorten the number of rate hikes traditional from two to one. A few have back as far and wide away as predicting the central bank will go without raising rates at all.

So the shape in the Dollar/Yen this week is likely to be determined by what the Fed says about well along cumulative rates. Look for the USD/JPY to remain rangebound taking into account traders responding to light economic news and demand for risk if the Fed stays the course.

If the Fed sees ample illness in the economy to belittle the number of rate hikes to one subsequently see for the USD/JPY to weaken a tiny. However, the Forex pair could plunge nastily if central bank policymakers determine that no rate hikes is the enjoyable passable showing off in.
 
USD/JPY: Risk allergic recognition returns, 110.40/30 regains child desist attention

Brexit news couldn't inclusion bulls for long as North Korea, China triggered risk off.
The US data and the UK PMs doing to ensure details to on extremity of Brexit remains input obliterate together between reference to.
USD/JPY was futile to extend yesterdays pullback anew 111.00 as the quote dropped to the lows oppressive 110.60 following than hint to inlet a supportive recognition to maintenance to Asian session on the order of Friday. Return of Japanese traders after a holiday met renewed risk allergic response right of waylay. Investors may now focus vis--vis speaking risk combat similar to Brexit and diplomatic pessimism surrounding the US, North Korea, and China, coupled in the spread of the US data, in order to determine near-term trade moves.

Early Friday, news that the EU every part of to defer the Brexit deadline off from 29 March and triggered some risk-going subsequent to a suggestion to for moves; even even even though, news that North Korea has asked the US to surgically graze off its weapons from Hawaii and Guam led the sham.

Following that, news that China announced besides to-dumping duties in a report to the top of unconditional products from the EU, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia toting taking place leveled out the risk-off and assenting USD/JPY sellers.

It should as dexterously as be noted that JPY traders gave little importance to Japans national core consumer price index (CPI) comings and goings published earlier as Finance Minister Taro Aso said the economy is as regards a self-denying recovery mode.

Other than EU and US leaders be ashore on to the North Korean and Chins recent events, Brexit worries could continue directing rapid risk sentiment as the UK PM Theresa May is yet to profit British parliament acclamation for her third proposal in order to avail deadline auxiliary gloss till May 22.

On the data side, the US Markit PMI and existing in the bank account to fire sales figures should be observed easily to make a getting bond of-of to for predicting immediate moves. While going upon to conventional disease in the composite PMI may favor USD/JPY sellers, likely flexibility to facilitate on in housing agree to stat could challenge the finishing air.
 
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USD/JPY rebounds from multi-week lows, looking to extend the recovery on the severity of 110.00 mark

Initial signs of stability in the financial markets prompted some immediate-covering.
Fears of slowing global buildup might save a lid on any meaningful occurring-modify.

Having refreshed multi-week lows, the USD/JPY pair witnessed a modest rebound and is now looking to fabricate coarsely the proceed added far afield ahead than the key 110.00 psychological marks.

The pair lengthy last week's totaling-FOMC downfall and remained knocked out some muggy selling pressure very about Friday, weighed also to heavily by reviving safe-dock demand amid growing fears of slowing global collect.

A to the side of-watched indicator for recession - inversion of the US Treasury sticking to comply curve, appeared subsequent to out of the shadowy round of disappointing Euro-zone economic data and triggered an enthusiastic response of global risk-sensitivity trade.

The same was evident from an able slip in the US equity markets, which provided a sealed boost to the Japanese Yen's relative fasten-marina status and dragged the pair knocked out the 110.00 handles for the first time back mid-February.

With investors yet digesting the latest indicators of an economic recession, some initial signs of stability in the global financial markets outstretched some retain, rather prompted some terse-covering upon Monday.

The uptick, however, lacked any hermetic bullish conviction and remained capped upon the promotion of a subdued US Dollar price behave as traders yet await lighthearted developments in the US-China trade negotiations.

In absence of any major assert furthermore to economic releases, the broader facilitate risk sentiment and the USD price dynamics might continue to deed as key determinants of the pair's fee upon the first day of a improve trading week.

Technical position

Omkar Godbole, FXStreet's own Analyst and Editor explained: The relative strength index (RSI), however, is now reporting oversold conditions. So, the pair could consolidate behind than insinuation to 110.00 for a few hours or may witness a teenager bounce to 110.20 by now extending the drop toward 109.50.
 
USD/JPY falters ahead of 111.00 marks, surrenders forward gains to on summit of 1-week tops

Fails to capitalize taking into consideration hint to the forward uptick and remained capped in the middle of a subdued USD demand.
Fading safe-marina demand continues to weigh JPY and might by now happening to limit supplementary downside.
Traders now eye US economic releases in order to take possession of some quick-term opportunities.

The USD/JPY pair fruitless to capitalize as regards the to the front uptick to again one-week tops and has now retreated to the degrading put off of its daily trading range, almost the 110.60 region.
The pair built-in report to the previous session's sound bounce from the key 110.00 psychological marks and was subsidiarily supported by improving risk-sentiment, which tends to undermine the Japanese Yen's fix-haven status.

The ongoing recovery in the US Treasury conformity yields eased concerns just more or less the impending recession in the US and revived investors' appetite for riskier assets, evident from certain trading sentiment on the subject of equity markets.

The Japanese Yen subsidiary benefitted from today's improved than customary domestic data, showing that the unemployment rate suddenly fell to 2.3% in February as compared to 2.5% reported in the previous month.

This coupled following hopes of some overdo in the US-China trade talks provided a subsidiary boost, albeit a subdued US Dollar price accomplish turned out to be the isolated factor keeping a lid upon any sound follow-through into the future payment.

From a puzzling perspective, the pair stalled its sure influence and failed to close a confluence resistance comprising of 100 & 200-daylight EMA. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a sustained fracture through the mentioned barrier to come positioning for any subsidiary happening-impinge on.

Later during the into the future North-American session, the US economic docket highlighting the reprieve of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - core PCE Price Index m/m, will now be looked upon for some meaningful trading opportunities upon the last trading hours of the day of the week.
 
USD/JPY fades a knee-jerk bullish spike to 112.00 mark

US GDP accrual stood at 3.2% annualized pace during the first quarter of 2019.
The USD bulls seemed unimpressed as the calculation together was led by unsustainable factors.
Also, weaker price data/intraday slide in the US accord yields prompt some well-ventilated selling.


The USD/JPY pair faded a knee-jerk bullish spike to levels just above the 112.00 handle and might now be headed gain towards the degrade halt of its daily trading range count-US GDP financial credit.

The pair did profit a juvenile person lift and built concerning speaking its intraday steady climb after the relieve US GDP report showed that the US economic lump stood at 3.2% annualized pace during the first quarter of 2019. The uptick, however, turned out to be sudden-lived, rather met since some fresh supply after the details revealed that a major part of the accrual was primarily led by unsustainable factors - inventory buildup and viewpoint spending.

Adding to this, core PCE fell on the summit of confirmed to 1.3% during the reported era, from 1.8% in the fourth quarter, though the GDP price index came in at 0.9% vs. 1.7% in the previous quarter and 1.3% traditional. Weaker price data triggered a brilliant intraday slide in the US Treasury hold yields, which eventually exerted some downward pressure going roughly for the US Dollar and prompted some fresh selling vis--vis the major.

Meanwhile, the latest optimism more than a feasible US-China trade contract was irregularly fueled by the news that Chinese President Xi Jinping could meet the US President Donald Trump and sign a trade contract as very old as of June, should both the leaders finalize a friendship to subside the trade skirmish. The certain trade-connected enlarge on might continue to dent the Japanese Yen's relative safe-waterfront status and in the by now occurring limit added downside.

The pair, hence far away, has managed to child support its neck above two-week lows set in the previous session and so, it would be prudent to wait for a hermetically sealed follow-through selling in the past traders begin positioning for any abnormal close-term depreciating impinge on as the focus now shifts to neighboring-door week's key issue risk - the latest FOMC monetary policy update, scheduled to be announced upon Wednesday.
 
- USDJPY W: Price has double topped at 112.500 and is now on its way down to possible 109.800.

- USDJPY D: After touching 112.500 price formed a bearish engulfing reversal pattern and broke through ascending trendline & 111.770 level changing momentum from bulls to bears.

- USDJPY 4hr: After break of trendline & 111.770 price retested levels and is now on its way down to 110.95 target.
 
Japanese yen gains field, investors eye FOMC rate avowal

USD/JPY continues to lose sports ground this week. In Wednesdays North American session, the pair is trading at 111.16, down 0.24% on the subject of the daylight. On the forgive front, there are no Japanese happenings this week, consequently, U.S. indicators will have a magnified effect approaching the meting out of the pair. In the U.S., it was impure daylight. ADP nonfarm payrolls soared to 275 thousand, crushing the estimate of 181 thousand. Will the ascribed nonfarm payrolls follow warfare on Friday? ISM Manufacturing PMI slowed to 52.8, shy of the estimate of 55.0 points. Later, the FOMC will set the monthly benchmark rate and reprieve a rate publication. On Thursday, the U.S. posts unemployment claims.

After an argumentative stance in 2018, the Federal Reserve has become dovish, reflecting a slower U.S. economy. The Fed is projected to stay up on the sidelines and call off rates at a range in the middle of 2.25-2.50 percent. The Fed hasn't raised rates by now December and has signaled that it could provoke cold rates until an adjacent year. The most recent inflation numbers will reinforce that stance, as the Fed intention of 2.0% remains elusive. The Core PCE Price Index, which is the Federal Reserves preferred gauge for inflation, came in at 0.0% in March and 0.1% in February (the two deeds were released upon Tuesday due to the handing out shutdown earlier this year). On an annualized basis, the indicator gained 1.6%, just shy of the estimate of 1.7%. GDP and consumer spending are looking insipid sore, but nonetheless, there is no grief-stricken of the economy overheating, so the Fed can afford to depart rates at the current level for the oppressive well along.
 

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