TIPS FOR A SUCCESSFUL TRADING ADVENTURE.
Backtesting , Forward Testing & Go Live.
This step usually works best with technical trading systems. However, if you can get historical fundamental data, you can possibly Backtest a fundamental trading system too.
Backtesting is the process of testing a trading system with historical data to see if the trading strategy would have made money in the past.
Although past performance does not guarantee future results, it is usually a very good indicator of if a trading system has an edge in the markets. Trading methods that do well over long periods of time and very different market conditions, have a great chance of continuing to work in the future.
After you find something that works in backtesting, it’s time to test it current market conditions…
Forward Testing Here’s where you really put the system to the test. Reminder: You should NOT be risking real money at this point. Sign up for a demo account and use that to test your system.
All reputable Forex brokers will have a demo account available. Even though the system looks good in Backtesting, there may be unforeseen issues that you did not account for. For example, maybe you are taking trades in Backtesting during the times when you would ordinarily be sleeping.
There are at least a dozen other such conditions that you may not have considered, so Forward Testing helps you flush out those issues. Test at least 100 trades before you even consider going live. If you have any doubts, go beyond 100, until you are confident in the trading system. Keep in mind that at this stage, you might discover that a trading strategy that you thought was perfect for you, is not a good fit.
The reason that we are going through this process is to figure out things like this, before you ever risk real money. Keep going through this process until you figure out something that works.
Go Live
After your trading system passes the Forward Testing stage, now it’s time to go live. I cannot tell you when is the right time for you to start trading real money. That is entirely up to you. However, I do have a quick tip that will save you a lot of heartache later. Start with a small amount of money.
If you have only been trading in demo, you probably still have to work out a few bugs, before you put all of your risk capital into your main trading account. Trading with real money is psychologically different from trading with play money.