Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD soared above 1.0900 after Trump imposed new tariffs

The EURUSD rate has climbed above 1.0900 following the introduction of new US trade tariffs. Find out more in our analysis for 3 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: US ADP employment data showed an increase of 155 thousand
• Market focus: Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on US trading partners
• Current trend: an uptrend is in place
• EURUSD forecast for 3 April 2025: 1.0800 and 1.0955

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump introduced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with even higher duties targeting key trading partners: 34% on China, 20% on the EU, and 24% on Japan. Additionally, a 25% tariff on foreign cars took immediate effect.

Commenting on the move, Trump described the tariffs as a strategy to support domestic manufacturing and reduce the trade deficit. In response, the EURUSD pair surged as the US dollar came under pressure due to concerns over a potential US economic slowdown triggered by ongoing trade wars.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Friday chaos – Nonfarm Payrolls to shake up Gold (XAUUSD) again

A decline in US Nonfarm Payrolls may boost XAUUSD quotes towards 3,160 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 4 April 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 151 thousand, projected at 137 thousand
• US unemployment rate: previously at 4.1%, projected at 4.1%
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 April 2025: 3,160 and 3,075

Fundamental analysis

According to the XAUUSD forecast for 4 April 2025, US Nonfarm Payrolls may decline to 137 thousand from the previous 151 thousand. If the actual figure aligns with expectations, the market may see heightened volatility and a temporary weakening of the US dollar.

The Nonfarm Payrolls release consistently generates strong market reactions and can either support the US dollar or make it lose ground.

Today’s XAUUSD analysis also considers that the US unemployment rate for March is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. The lack of changes from the previous period would be a neutral factor for the USD.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD remains in the eye of the storm: tariff fears dominate the market

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.0990 on Monday as market chaos continues. Discover more in our analysis for 7 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair is moving more actively than usual
• Investors remain concerned about global trade tensions, although the White House maintains its stance
• EURUSD forecast for 7 April 2025: 1.1146

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is trading around 1.0990 on Monday.

Volatility remains above average. Investors are assessing the impact of Donald Trump’s tariff policy on inflation and economic growth. The global trade war is only escalating.

Despite the market panic, the White House stands firm on its decision to impose retaliatory tariffs. On Sunday, Trump compared the tariffs to medicine you have to take to fix something. Previously, China agreed on a 34% tariff on all US-made goods, which may prompt similar measures from other countries.

The unfolding tariff saga has intensified fears over US inflation and economic growth, complicating the Fed’s policy path. Markets are now pricing in a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts for 2025.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Strong data from Japan keeps USDJPY from rising further

The USDJPY pair is slightly declining, currently trading at 147.70. Find more details in our analysis for 8 April 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Donald Trump announces readiness to begin trade talks with Japan
• Japan posts a record current account surplus in February 2025
• USDJPY forecast for 8 April 2025: 146.25

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is retreating after Monday’s sharp rally, where the pair tested the key resistance level at 148.00. The Japanese yen temporarily weakened against the US dollar amid growing uncertainty around global trade — typically a driver of safe-haven demand.

On the political front, Donald Trump confirmed his readiness to start trade negotiations with Japan following a phone call with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The upcoming talks will address a wide range of issues, including tariffs, currency policy, and state subsidies.

Robust economic data keeps the yen from further weakening. In February 2025, Japan recorded a record current account surplus of 4.0607 trillion yen, driven by strong export growth amid high external demand and a decline in imports due to lower energy prices and subdued domestic consumption.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) rises, supported by the Fed stance and market demand

Gold (XAUUSD) has climbed to 3,028 USD, with safe-haven demand continuing to drive the metal higher. Discover more in our analysis for 9 April 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices continue to recover following recent volatility
• Despite April's dip, Gold (XAUUSD) quotes have gained 13% year-to-date
• XAUUSD forecast for 9 April 2025: 3,046

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose to 3,028 USD on Wednesday amid growing safe-haven demand. The escalating trade war fuels fears of global recession and rising inflation.

The US government confirmed that additional tariffs on imports from multiple countries will take effect today, with no exemptions at this stage.

China faces the steepest tariff hike of 104% after it refused to comply with US demands to lift its retaliatory duties on US goods by the deadline. US President Donald Trump also announced that a significant tariff on pharmaceutical imports is expected soon.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent remains highly volatile: new stress ahead?

Brent crude prices are falling again, sliding towards 64.90 USD after a 4% rally in the previous session. Find more details in our analysis for 10 April 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent gained 4% in the previous session but has now stalled
• Trump’s temporary tariff compromise supported prices, but the outlook remains uncertain, potentially curbing growth
• Brent forecast for 10 April 2025: 64.80 and 64.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices are hovering around 64.90 USD. On Wednesday, prices rose by over 4% as investor sentiment improved following the US decision to pause tariff hikes for most countries.

US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day period during which import tariffs would be lowered to 10% in an effort to support ongoing trade talks. The move helped reduce fears of a full-blown trade war, which could trigger a global recession and suppress oil demand.

However, markets remain cautious as China was excluded from this deal, and its tariff rate was raised to 125%.

The latest data from the US Department of Energy showed a larger-than-expected drop in gasoline and distillate inventories, helping offset a moderate rise in crude oil stockpiles.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Brent Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team